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Discrimination between non-stationarity and long-range dependency is a difficult and long-standing issue in modelling financial time series. This paper uses an adaptive spectral technique which jointly models the non-stationarity and…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2019-02-12 Nick James , Roman Marchant , Richard Gerlach , Sally Cripps

Both marginal and dependence features must be described when modelling the extremes of a stationary time series. There are standard approaches to marginal modelling, but long- and short-range dependence of extremes may both appear. In…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-03-17 Thomas Lugrin , Anthony C. Davison , Jonathan A. Tawn

Motivated by the EVA 2025 Data Challenge, we address the problem of predicting extreme rainfall in the eastern United States using data from a large ensemble of climate model runs. The challenge focuses on three quantities of interest…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-20 Ryan Campbell , Kristina Grolmusova , Lydia Kakampakou , Jeongjin Lee

There is an increasing interest to understand the dependence structure of a random vector not only in the center of its distribution but also in the tails. Extreme-value theory tackles the problem of modelling the joint tail of a…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-11-04 Anna Kiriliouk , Johan Segers , Michal Warchol

A recent development in extreme value modeling uses the geometry of the dataset to perform inference on the multivariate tail. A key quantity in this inference is the gauge function, whose values define this geometry. Methodology proposed…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-23 Ryan Campbell , Jennifer Wadsworth

In multivariate extreme value analysis, the nature of the extremal dependence between variables should be considered when selecting appropriate statistical models. Interest often lies with determining which subsets of variables can take…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-19 Emma S. Simpson , Jennifer L. Wadsworth , Jonathan A. Tawn

Understanding the complex structure of multivariate extremes is a major challenge in various fields from portfolio monitoring and environmental risk management to insurance. In the framework of multivariate Extreme Value Theory, a common…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-02-09 Hamid Jalalzai , Rémi Leluc

We introduce a nonstationary spatio-temporal statistical model for gridded data on the sphere. The model specifies a computationally convenient covariance structure that depends on heterogeneous geography. Widely used statistical models on…

Applications · Statistics 2016-02-25 Stefano Castruccio , Joseph Guinness

Accurate modelling of the joint extremal dependence structure within a stationary time series is a challenging problem that is important in many applications.\ Several previous approaches to this problem are only applicable to certain types…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-03-09 Graeme Auld , Ioannis Papastathopoulos

Modelling the extremal dependence of bivariate variables is important in a wide variety of practical applications, including environmental planning, catastrophe modelling and hydrology. The majority of these approaches are based on the…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-27 C. J. R. Murphy-Barltrop , J. L. Wadsworth , E. F. Eastoe

The paper introduces a new regression model designed for situations where both the response and covariates are non-stationary extremes. This method is specifically designed for situations where both the response variable and covariates are…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-26 Amina El Bernoussi , Mohamed El Arrouchi

Financial markets are prominent examples for highly non-stationary systems. Sample averaged observables such as variances and correlation coefficients strongly depend on the time window in which they are evaluated. This implies severe…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2015-06-15 Thilo A. Schmitt , Desislava Chetalova , Rudi Schäfer , Thomas Guhr

Currently available models for spatial extremes suffer either from inflexibility in the dependence structures that they can capture, lack of scalability to high dimensions, or in most cases, both of these. We present an approach to spatial…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-17 Jennifer L. Wadsworth , Jonathan Tawn

Extremal dependence between international stock markets is of particular interest in today's global financial landscape. However, previous studies have shown this dependence is not necessarily stationary over time. We concern ourselves with…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2017-09-06 Daniela Castro Camilo , Miguel de Carvalho , Jennifer Wadsworth

A central issue in the theory of extreme values focuses on suitable conditions such that the well-known results for the limiting distributions of the maximum of i.i.d. sequences can be applied to stationary ones. In this context, the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-02-07 Helena Ferreira , Marta Ferreira

The classical modeling of spatial extremes relies on asymptotic models (i.e., max-stable processes or $r$-Pareto processes) for block maxima or peaks over high thresholds, respectively. However, at finite levels, empirical evidence often…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-09-15 Raphaël Huser , Jennifer L. Wadsworth

Modeling the joint distribution of extreme weather events in multiple locations is a challenging task with important applications. In this study, we use max-stable models to study extreme daily precipitation events in Switzerland. The…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-11-29 Clément Chevalier , David Ginsbourger , Olivia Martius

Semiparametric regression offers a flexible framework for modeling non-linear relationships between a response and covariates. A prime example are generalized additive models where splines (say) are used to approximate non-linear functional…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-10-05 Francis K. C. Hui , Chong You , Han Lin Shang , Samuel Müller

Davis and Mikosch [7] introduced the extremogram as a flexible quantitative tool for measuring various types of extremal dependence in a stationary time series. There we showed some standard statistical properties of the sample extremogram.…

Methodology · Statistics 2011-07-29 Richard A. Davis , Thomas Mikosch , Ivor Cribben

In fields such as hydrology and climatology, modelling the entire distribution of positive data is essential, as stakeholders require insights into the full range of values, from low to extreme. Traditional approaches often segment the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-03 Carlo Gaetan , Philippe Naveau