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Probabilistic regression models the entire predictive distribution of a response variable, offering richer insights than classical point estimates and directly allowing for uncertainty quantification. While diffusion-based generative models…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-07 Carlo Kneissl , Christopher Bülte , Philipp Scholl , Gitta Kutyniok

In this paper we derive stochastic representations for the finite dimensional distributions of a multidimensional diffusion on a fixed time interval, conditioned on the terminal state. The conditioning can be with respect to a fixed point…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-07-29 Christian Bayer , John Schoenmakers

This paper proposes a novel diffusion-index model for forecasting when predictors are high-dimensional matrix-valued time series. We apply an $\alpha$-PCA method to extract low-dimensional matrix factors and build a bilinear regression…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-08-07 Zhiren Ma , Qian Zhao , Riquan Zhang , Zhaoxing Gao

Generative models have attracted significant interest due to their ability to handle uncertainty by learning the inherent data distributions. However, two prominent generative models, namely Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-25 Yu Wang , Zhiwei Liu , Liangwei Yang , Philip S. Yu

Empirical risk minimization often performs poorly when the distribution of the target domain differs from those of source domains. To address such potential distribution shifts, we develop an unsupervised domain adaptation approach that…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-03-25 Zhenyu Wang , Peter Bühlmann , Zijian Guo

Probabilistic forecasting is crucial in multivariate financial time-series for constructing efficient portfolios that account for complex cross-sectional dependencies. In this paper, we propose Diffolio, a diffusion model designed for…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2026-03-31 So-Yoon Cho , Jin-Young Kim , Kayoung Ban , Hyeng Keun Koo , Hyun-Gyoon Kim

We propose a deep generative approach to sampling from a conditional distribution based on a unified formulation of conditional distribution and generalized nonparametric regression function using the noise-outsourcing lemma. The proposed…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-10-22 Xingyu Zhou , Yuling Jiao , Jin Liu , Jian Huang

We propose a novel method to improve estimation of asset returns for portfolio optimization. This approach first performs a monthly directional market forecast using an online decision tree. The decision tree is trained on a novel set of…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2026-04-07 Nolan Alexander , William Scherer

We study continuous-time mean--variance portfolio selection in markets where stock prices are diffusion processes driven by observable factors that are also diffusion processes, yet the coefficients of these processes are unknown. Based on…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2026-03-31 Yilie Huang , Yanwei Jia , Xun Yu Zhou

The diffusion model has shown success in generating high-quality and diverse solutions to trajectory optimization problems. However, diffusion models with neural networks inevitably make prediction errors, which leads to constraint…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-04 Anjian Li , Zihan Ding , Adji Bousso Dieng , Ryne Beeson

Aerial manipulators undergo rapid, configuration-dependent changes in inertial coupling forces and aerodynamic forces, making accurate dynamics modeling a core challenge for reliable control. Analytical models lose fidelity under these…

Diffusion models have been successful on a range of conditional generation tasks including molecular design and text-to-image generation. However, these achievements have primarily depended on task-specific conditional training or…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-11-26 Luhuan Wu , Brian L. Trippe , Christian A. Naesseth , David M. Blei , John P. Cunningham

Recent advances on text-to-image generation have witnessed the rise of diffusion models which act as powerful generative models. Nevertheless, it is not trivial to exploit such latent variable models to capture the dependency among discrete…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-12-07 Jianjie Luo , Yehao Li , Yingwei Pan , Ting Yao , Jianlin Feng , Hongyang Chao , Tao Mei

Recent progress in image generation has sparked research into controlling these models through condition signals, with various methods addressing specific challenges in conditional generation. Instead of proposing another specialized…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-04-08 Xirui Li , Charles Herrmann , Kelvin C. K. Chan , Yinxiao Li , Deqing Sun , Chao Ma , Ming-Hsuan Yang

We propose an adaptive diffusion mechanism to optimize a global cost function in a distributed manner over a network of nodes. The cost function is assumed to consist of a collection of individual components. Diffusion adaptation allows the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2015-06-03 Jianshu Chen , Ali H. Sayed

We present a multi-fidelity method for uncertainty quantification of parameter estimates in complex systems, leveraging generative models trained to sample the target conditional distribution. In the Bayesian inference setting, traditional…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-03 Caroline Tatsuoka , Minglei Yang , Dongbin Xiu , Guannan Zhang

We introduce a distributional method for learning the optimal policy in risk averse Markov decision process with finite state action spaces, latent costs, and stationary dynamics. We assume sequential observations of states, actions, and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-01 Ziteng Cheng , Sebastian Jaimungal , Nick Martin

Diffusion has emerged as a powerful framework for generative modeling, achieving remarkable success in applications such as image and audio synthesis. Enlightened by this progress, we propose a novel diffusion-based approach for symbolic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-02 Zachary Bastiani , Robert M. Kirby , Jacob Hochhalter , Shandian Zhe

Learning the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of an outcome variable conditional on a set of features remains challenging, especially in high-dimensional settings. Conditional transformation models provide a semi-parametric approach…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-05 Philipp F. M. Baumann , Torsten Hothorn , David Rügamer

Diffusion and flow-based generative models have achieved remarkable success in domains such as image synthesis, video generation, and natural language modeling. In this work, we extend these advances to weight space learning by leveraging…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-17 Daniel Saragih , Deyu Cao , Tejas Balaji