Related papers: A sub-hourly spatio-temporal statistical model for…
Accurate 24-hour solar irradiance forecasting is essential for the safe and economic operation of solar photovoltaic systems. Traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) models represent the state-of-the-art in forecasting performance…
We propose a fully probabilistic prediction model for spatially aggregated solar photovoltaic (PV) power production at an hourly time scale with lead times up to several days using weather forecasts from numerical weather prediction systems…
This paper discusses emerging operational challenges associated with the integration of solar photovoltaic (PV) in the All-Island power system (AIPS) of Ireland and Northern Ireland. These include the impact of solar PV on: (i) dispatch…
This paper compares different forecasting methods and models to predict average values of solar irradiance with a sampling time of 15 min over a prediction horizon of up to 3 h. The methods considered only require historic solar irradiance…
Probabilistic forecasts of renewable energy production provide users with valuable information about the uncertainty associated with the expected generation. Current state-of-the-art forecasts for solar irradiance have focused on producing…
Solar irradiance is fundamental data crucial for analyses related to weather and climate. High-precision estimation models are necessary to create areal data for solar irradiance. In this study, we developed a novel estimation model by…
Integration of intermittent renewable energy sources into electric grids in large proportions is challenging. A well-established approach aimed at addressing this difficulty involves the anticipation of the upcoming energy supply…
Improving irradiance forecasting is critical to further increase the share of solar in the energy mix. On a short time scale, fish-eye cameras on the ground are used to capture cloud displacements causing the local variability of the…
Ahead-of-time forecasting of incident solar-irradiance on a panel is indicative of expected energy yield and is essential for efficient grid distribution and planning. Traditionally, these forecasts are based on meteorological physics…
Accurate estimates of the surface solar radiation (SSR) are a prerequisite for intra-day forecasts of solar resources and photovoltaic power generation. Intra-day SSR forecasts are of interest to power traders and to operators of solar…
Estimation of the generated power of renewable energy resources is in general important for planning operations as well as demand balance and power quality. This paper addresses the problem of the estimation of the short-term (3-hour ahead)…
Photovoltaic (PV) power is affected by weather conditions, making the power generated from the PV systems uncertain. Solving this problem would help improve the reliability and cost effectiveness of the grid, and could help reduce reliance…
Advancing probabilistic solar forecasting methods is essential to supporting the integration of solar energy into the electricity grid. In this work, we develop a variety of state-of-the-art probabilistic models for forecasting solar…
Due to the increasing integration of solar power into the electrical grid, forecasting short-term solar irradiance has become key for many applications, e.g.~operational planning, power purchases, reserve activation, etc. In this context,…
The occlusion of the sun by clouds is one of the primary sources of uncertainties in solar power generation, and is a factor that affects the wide-spread use of solar power as a primary energy source. Real-time forecasting of cloud movement…
Accurate day-ahead forecasts of solar irradiance are required for the large-scale integration of solar photovoltaic (PV) systems into the power grid. However, current forecasting solutions lack the temporal and spatial resolution required…
Surface solar irradiance varies on scales as small as seconds or meters due to scattering and absorption by the atmosphere. Clouds are the main driver of this variability, but moisture structures in the atmospheric boundary layer and…
In this paper, we demonstrate the importance of embedding temporal information for an accurate prediction of solar irradiance. We have used two sets of models for forecasting solar irradiance. The first one uses only time series data of…
Due to the increasing proportion of distributed photovoltaic (PV) production in the generation mix, the knowledge of the PV generation capacity has become a key factor. In this work, we propose to compute the PV plant maximum power starting…
Understanding space weather is vital for the protection of our terrestrial and space infrastructure. In order to predict space weather accurately, large amounts of data are required, particularly in the extreme ultraviolet (EUV) spectrum.…