Related papers: Joint Reproduction Number and Spatial Connectivity…
A major difficulty to estimate $R$ (the effective reproducing number) of COVID-19 is that most cases of COVID-19 infection are mild or asymptomatic, therefore true number of infection is difficult to determine. This paper estimates the…
Capturing the structured mixing within a population is key to the reliable projection of infectious disease dynamics and hence informed control. Both heterogeneity in the number of contacts and age-structured mixing have been repeatedly…
The correct evaluation of the reproductive number $R$ for COVID-19 -- which characterizes the average number of secondary cases generated by each typical primary case -- is central in the quantification of the potential scope of the…
A primary quantity of interest in the study of infectious diseases is the average number of new infections that an infected person produces. This so-called reproduction number has significant implications for the disease progression. There…
One of the key indicators used in tracking the evolution of an infectious disease isthe reproduction number. This quantity is usually computed using the reportednumber of cases, but ignoring that many more individuals may be infected…
During the COVID-19 pandemic, governments faced difficulties in implementing mobility restriction measures, as no clear quantitative relationship between human mobility and infection spread in large cities is known. We developed a model…
To control the current outbreak of the Coronavirus Disease 2019, constant monitoring of the epidemic is required since, as of today, no vaccines or antiviral drugs against it are known. We provide daily updated estimates of the reproduction…
This paper deals with the problem of estimating variables in nonlinear models for the spread of disease and its application to the COVID-19 epidemic. First unconstrained methods are revisited and they are shown to correspond to the…
In this paper, we use a Bayesian method to estimate the effective reproduction number (R(t)), in the context of monitoring the time evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil at different geographic levels. The focus of this study is to…
The effective reproduction number is an important descriptor of an infectious disease epidemic. In small populations, ideally we would estimate the effective reproduction number using a Markov Jump Process (MJP) model of the spread of…
Addressed in this work is the performance of five popular algorithms, which aim at assessing the dissemination dynamics of the COVID-19 disease on the basis of the time series of new confirmed cases. The tests are based on simulated data,…
This paper is an exploratory study of two epidemiological questions on a worldwide basis. How fast is the disease spreading? Are the restrictions (especially mobility restrictions) for people bring the expected effect? To answer the first…
Contact Tracing (CT) is one of the measures taken by government and health officials to mitigate the spread of the novel coronavirus. In this paper, we investigate its efficacy by developing a compartmental model for assessing its impact on…
The basic reproduction number R0 -- the number of individuals directly infected by an infectious person in an otherwise susceptible population -- is arguably the most widely used estimator of how severe an epidemic outbreak can be. This…
The rapid spread of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) has severely impacted almost all countries around the world. It not only has caused a tremendous burden on health-care providers to bear, but it has also brought severe impacts on the…
The basic reproductive number -- $R_0$ -- is one of the most common and most commonly misapplied numbers in public health. Although often used to compare outbreaks and forecast pandemic risk, this single number belies the complexity that…
During an infectious disease outbreak, public health decision-makers require real-time monitoring of disease transmission to respond quickly and intelligently. In these settings, a key measure of transmission is the instantaneous…
Epidemic modeling is an essential tool to understand the spread of the novel coronavirus and ultimately assist in disease prevention, policymaking, and resource allocation. In this article, we establish a state of the art interface between…
Phenomenological and deterministic models are often used for the estimation of transmission parameters in an epidemic and for the prediction of its growth trajectory. Such analyses are usually based on single peak outbreak dynamics. In…
Basic and instantaneous reproduction numbers, "R" _"0" and "R" _"t" , are important metrics to assess progress of an epidemic and effectiveness of preventative interventions undertaken, and also to estimate coverage needed for vaccination.…