Related papers: Sharp Large Deviations and Gibbs Conditioning for …

Extreme events over large spatial domains may exhibit highly heterogeneous tail dependence characteristics, yet most existing spatial extremes models yield only one dependence class over the entire spatial domain. To accurately characterize…

We prove precise deviations results in the sense of Cram\'er and Petrov for the upper tail of the distribution of the maximal value for a special class of determinantal point processes that play an important role in random matrix theory.…

Let $\nu_1,\nu_2,\dots$ be a sequence of probabilities on the nonnegative integers, and $X=(X_1,X_2, \dots)$ be a sequence of independent random variables $X_i$ with law $\nu_i$. For $\lambda>0$ denote $Z^\lambda_i:= \sum_x…

In a low-order model of the general circulation of the atmosphere we examine the predictability of threshold exceedance events of certain observables. The likelihood of such binary events -- the cornerstone also for the categoric (as…

We analyze neural scaling laws in a solvable model of last-layer fine-tuning where targets have intrinsic, instance-heterogeneous difficulty. In our Latent Instance Difficulty (LID) model, each input's target variance is governed by a…

Gaussian graphical model is one of the powerful tools to analyze conditional independence between two variables for multivariate Gaussian-distributed observations. When the dimension of data is moderate or high, penalized likelihood methods…

Stochastic volatility processes with heavy-tailed innovations are a well-known model for financial time series. In these models, the extremes of the log returns are mainly driven by the extremes of the i.i.d. innovation sequence which leads…

The transverse momentum ($p_{T}$) distribution of strange hadrons ($K_{S}^{0}$ and $\Lambda$) and multi-strange hadrons( $\Xi$ and $\Omega$) measured in p$-$p, p$-$Pb, and Pb$-$Pb collisions at LHC energies have been studied for different…

We study deviation of U-statistics when samples have heavy-tailed distribution so the kernel of the U-statistic does not have bounded exponential moments at any positive point. We obtain an exponential upper bound for the tail of the…

In many large-scale inverse problems, such as computed tomography and image deblurring, characterization of sharp edges in the solution is desired. Within the Bayesian approach to inverse problems, edge-preservation is often achieved using…

Motivated by the construction of tractable robust estimators via convex relaxations, we present conditions on the sample size which guarantee an augmented notion of Restricted Eigenvalue-type condition for Gaussian designs. Such a notion is…

In this paper we consider the problem of obtaining sharp bounds for the performance of temporal difference (TD) methods with linear function approximation for policy evaluation in discounted Markov decision processes. We show that a simple…

The unpredictability of chaotic nonlinear dynamics leads naturally to statistical descriptions, including probabilistic limit laws such as the central limit theorem and large deviation principle. A key tool in the Nagaev-Guivarc'h spectral…

We introduce a simple and tractable methodology for estimating semiparametric conditional latent factor models. Our approach disentangles the roles of characteristics in capturing factor betas of asset returns from ``alpha.'' We construct…

Abstract In Extreme Value methodology the choice of threshold plays an important role in efficient modelling of observations exceeding the threshold. The threshold must be chosen high enough to ensure an unbiased extreme value index but…

We derive a large deviation principle for random permutations induced by probability measures of the unit square, called permutons. These permutations are called $\mu$-random permutations. We also introduce and study a new general class of…

We investigate the competition between two distinct mechanisms generating stable laws in deterministic dynamical systems: slow mixing of the system and heavy-tailed observables. For heavy-tailed observables on polynomially mixing billiards…

A tail empirical process for heavy-tailed and right-censored data is introduced and its Gaussian approximation is established. In this context, a (weighted) new Hill-type estimator for positive extreme value index is proposed and its…

We propose an extension of the regular Cox's proportional hazards model which allows the estimation of the probabilities of rare events. It is known that when the data are heavily censored at the upper end of the survival distribution, the…

Designs conditions for marine structures are typically informed by threshold-based extreme value analyses of oceanographic variables, in which excesses of a high threshold are modelled by a generalized Pareto (GP) distribution. Too low a…