Related papers: Sharp Large Deviations and Gibbs Conditioning for …

It is shown phenomenologically that the fractional derivative $\xi=D^\alpha u$ of order $\alpha$ of a multifractal function has a power-law tail $\propto |\xi| ^{-p_\star}$ in its cumulative probability, for a suitable range of $\alpha$'s.…

Recently, the concept of tail dependence has been discussed in financial applications related to market or credit risk. The multivariate extreme value theory is a proper tool to measure and model dependence, for example, of large loss…

Threshold selection plays a key role for various aspects of statistical inference of rare events. Most classical approaches tackling this problem for heavy-tailed distributions crucially depend on tuning parameters or critical values to be…

Diffusion models have emerged as powerful generative frameworks with widespread applications across machine learning and artificial intelligence systems. While current research has predominantly focused on linear diffusions, these…

In the world of modern financial theory, portfolio construction has traditionally operated under at least one of two central assumptions: the constraints are derived from a utility function and/or the multivariate probability distribution…

Using the weak convergence approach, we prove the large deviation principle (LDP) for solutions to quasilinear stochastic evolution equations with small Gaussian noise in the critical variational setting, a recently developed general…

We present new excess risk bounds for general unbounded loss functions including log loss and squared loss, where the distribution of the losses may be heavy-tailed. The bounds hold for general estimators, but they are optimized when…

An important challenge in statistical analysis concerns the control of the finite sample bias of estimators. For example, the maximum likelihood estimator has a bias that can result in a significant inferential loss. This problem is…

The masses of data now available have opened up the prospect of discovering weak signals using machine-learning algorithms, with a view to predictive or interpretation tasks. As this survey of recent results attempts to show, bringing…

In this paper, we present a large-deviation theory developed for functionals of canonical Gibbs processes, i.e., Gibbs processes with respect to the binomial point process. We study the regime of a fixed intensity in a sequence of…

We study in this paper the problem of least absolute deviation (LAD) regression for high-dimensional heavy-tailed time series which have finite $\alpha$-th moment with $\alpha \in (1,2]$. To handle the heavy-tailed dependent data, we…

We consider the problem of sparsity-constrained $M$-estimation when both explanatory and response variables have heavy tails (bounded 4-th moments), or a fraction of arbitrary corruptions. We focus on the $k$-sparse, high-dimensional regime…

There is an increasing realization that algorithmic inductive biases are central in preventing overfitting; empirically, we often see a benign overfitting phenomenon in overparameterized settings for natural learning algorithms, such as…

In this paper we discuss the problem of the estimation of extreme event occurrence probability for data drawn from some multifractal process. We also study the heavy (power-law) tail behavior of probability density function associated with…

We study the fluctuations of the largest eigenvalue $\lambda_{\max}$ of $N \times N$ random matrices in the limit of large $N$. The main focus is on Gaussian $\beta$-ensembles, including in particular the Gaussian orthogonal ($\beta=1$),…

We consider a Bayesian approach to variable selection in the presence of high dimensional covariates based on a hierarchical model that places prior distributions on the regression coefficients as well as on the model space. We adopt the…

We propose a class of transformation hazard models for right-censored failure time data. It includes the proportional hazards model (Cox) and the additive hazards model (Lin and Ying) as special cases. Due to the requirement of a…

Considered here are robust subgroup-classifier learning and testing in change-plane regressions with heavy-tailed errors, which can identify subgroups as a basis for making optimal recommendations for individualized treatment. A new…

We study the problem of factor modelling vector- and tensor-valued time series in the presence of heavy tails in the data, which produce extreme observations with non-negligible probability. We propose to combine a two-step procedure for…

In this paper we consider a Bayesian framework for making inferences about dynamical systems from ergodic observations. The proposed Bayesian procedure is based on the Gibbs posterior, a decision theoretic generalization of standard…