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Large language models (LLMs) have shown strong results on a range of applications, including regression and scoring tasks. Typically, one obtains outputs from an LLM via autoregressive sampling from the model's output distribution. We show…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-11-04 Michal Lukasik , Harikrishna Narasimhan , Aditya Krishna Menon , Felix Yu , Sanjiv Kumar

Large language models (LLMs) can suffer from hallucinations when generating text. These hallucinations impede various applications in society and industry by making LLMs untrustworthy. Current LLMs generate text in an autoregressive fashion…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-05 Lukas Aichberger , Kajetan Schweighofer , Mykyta Ielanskyi , Sepp Hochreiter

We present an automatic large language model (LLM) conversion approach that produces uncertainty-aware LLMs capable of estimating uncertainty with every prediction. Our approach is model- and data-agnostic, is computationally-efficient, and…

Large-language models (LLMs) and chatbot agents are known to provide wrong outputs at times, and it was recently found that this can never be fully prevented. Hence, uncertainty quantification plays a crucial role, aiming to quantify the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-29 Michael Kirchhof , Gjergji Kasneci , Enkelejda Kasneci

This study investigates uncertainty quantification in large language models (LLMs) for medical applications, emphasizing both technical innovations and philosophical implications. As LLMs become integral to clinical decision-making,…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-04-08 Zahra Atf , Seyed Amir Ahmad Safavi-Naini , Peter R. Lewis , Aref Mahjoubfar , Nariman Naderi , Thomas R. Savage , Ali Soroush

Large language models (LLMs) are demonstrably capable of cross-lingual transfer, but can produce inconsistent output when prompted with the same queries written in different languages. To understand how language models are able to…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-09-29 Zheng Wei Lim , Alham Fikri Aji , Trevor Cohn

Accurately gauging the confidence level of Large Language Models' (LLMs) predictions is pivotal for their reliable application. However, LLMs are often uncalibrated inherently and elude conventional calibration techniques due to their…

Although large language models (LLMs) are highly interactive and extendable, current approaches to ensure reliability in deployments remain mostly limited to rejecting outputs with high uncertainty in order to avoid misinformation. This…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-10 T. Duy Nguyen-Hien , Desi R. Ivanova , Yee Whye Teh , Wee Sun Lee

Large Language Models (LLMs) that can express interpretable and calibrated uncertainty are crucial in high-stakes domains. While methods to compute uncertainty post-hoc exist, they are often sampling-based and therefore computationally…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-09 Azza Jenane , Nassim Walha , Lukas Kuhn , Florian Buettner

Despite the effectiveness of large language models (LLMs) for code generation, they often output incorrect code. One reason is that model output probabilities are often not well-correlated with correctness, and reflect only the final output…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2026-01-22 Francisco Ribeiro , Claudio Spiess , Prem Devanbu , Sarah Nadi

Prompt optimization algorithms for Large Language Models (LLMs) excel in multi-step reasoning but still lack effective uncertainty estimation. This paper introduces a benchmark dataset to evaluate uncertainty metrics, focusing on Answer,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-30 Pei-Fu Guo , Yun-Da Tsai , Shou-De Lin

This study evaluates large language models as estimable classifiers and clarifies how modeling choices shape downstream measurement error. Revisiting the Economic Policy Uncertainty index, we show that contemporary classifiers substantially…

General Economics · Economics 2025-11-27 Ethan Hartley

Human reasoning involves different strategies, each suited to specific problems. Prior work shows that large language model (LLMs) tend to favor a single reasoning strategy, potentially limiting their effectiveness in diverse reasoning…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-07-17 Yanjian Zhang , Guillaume Wisniewski , Nadi Tomeh , Thierry Charnois

Large Language Models (LLMs) have been widely adopted in ranking systems such as information retrieval (IR) systems and recommender systems (RSs). To alleviate the latency of auto-regressive decoding, some studies explore the single (first)…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-05-28 Yingpeng Du , Tianjun Wei , Zhu Sun , Jie Zhang

Probing techniques have shown promise in revealing how LLMs encode human-interpretable concepts, particularly when applied to curated datasets. However, the factors governing a dataset's suitability for effective probe training are not…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-05-27 Yongjie Wang , Yibo Wang , Xin Zhou , Zhiqi Shen

In many natural language processing (NLP) tasks the same input (e.g. source sentence) can have multiple possible outputs (e.g. translations). To analyze how this ambiguity (also known as intrinsic uncertainty) shapes the distribution…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2022-04-04 Felix Stahlberg , Ilia Kulikov , Shankar Kumar

Large language models (LLMs) are revolutionizing every aspect of society. They are increasingly used in problem-solving tasks to substitute human assessment and reasoning. LLMs are trained on what humans write and are thus exposed to human…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2025-10-14 Fengfei Sun , Ningke Li , Kailong Wang , Lorenz Goette

Despite demonstrating impressive capabilities, Large Language Models (LLMs) still often struggle to accurately express the factual knowledge they possess, especially in cases where the LLMs' knowledge boundaries are ambiguous. To improve…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-05-26 Boyang Xue , Fei Mi , Qi Zhu , Hongru Wang , Rui Wang , Sheng Wang , Erxin Yu , Xuming Hu , Kam-Fai Wong

Large language models are being widely used across industries to generate content that contributes directly to key performance metrics, such as conversion rates. Pretrained models, however, often fall short when it comes to aligning with…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-03 Erfan Loghmani

To leverage the full potential of Large Language Models (LLMs) it is crucial to have some information on their answers' uncertainty. This means that the model has to be able to quantify how certain it is in the correctness of a given…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-04-07 Mirko Borszukovszki , Ivo Pascal de Jong , Matias Valdenegro-Toro
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