Related papers: Bayesian distributionally robust variational inequ…
Calibration and uncertainty estimation are crucial topics in high-risk environments. We introduce a new diversity regularizer for classification tasks that uses out-of-distribution samples and increases the overall accuracy, calibration and…
Distributionally robust optimization (DRO) studies decision problems under uncertainty where the probability distribution governing the uncertain problem parameters is itself uncertain. A key component of any DRO model is its ambiguity set,…
We study the variational inference problem of minimizing a regularized R\'enyi divergence over an exponential family. We propose to solve this problem with a Bregman proximal gradient algorithm. We propose a sampling-based algorithm to…
This paper proposes a novel framework for the distributionally robust input and state estimation (DRISE) for autonomous vehicles operating under model uncertainties and measurement outliers. The proposed framework improves the input and…
In this paper we focus on noncooperative games with uncertain constraints coupling the agents' decisions. We consider a setting where bounded deviations of agents' decisions from the equilibrium are possible, and uncertain constraints are…
Data-driven risk analysis involves the inference of probability distributions from measured or simulated data. In the case of a highly reliable system, such as the electricity grid, the amount of relevant data is often exceedingly limited,…
In the realm of supervised learning, Bayesian learning has shown robust predictive capabilities under input and parameter perturbations. Inspired by these findings, we demonstrate the robustness properties of Bayesian learning in the…
We study a variety of Wasserstein distributionally robust optimization (WDRO) problems where the distributions in the ambiguity set are chosen by constraining their Wasserstein discrepancies to the empirical distribution. Using the notion…
This paper presents an efficient Bayesian framework for solving nonlinear, high-dimensional model calibration problems. It is based on a Variational Bayesian formulation that aims at approximating the exact posterior by means of solving an…
We revisit Merton's continuous-time portfolio selection through a data-driven, distributionally robust lens. Our aim is to tap the benefits of frequent trading over short horizons while acknowledging that drift is hard to pin down, whereas…
We consider stochastic programs where the distribution of the uncertain parameters is only observable through a finite training dataset. Using the Wasserstein metric, we construct a ball in the space of (multivariate and non-discrete)…
Robustness of decision rules to shifts in the data-generating process is crucial to the successful deployment of decision-making systems. Such shifts can be viewed as interventions on a causal graph, which capture (possibly hypothetical)…
Uncertainty quantification is essential when dealing with ill-conditioned inverse problems due to the inherent nonuniqueness of the solution. Bayesian approaches allow us to determine how likely an estimation of the unknown parameters is…
We show that regularizing Bayesian predictive regressions provides a framework for prior sensitivity analysis. We develop a procedure that jointly regularizes expectations and variance-covariance matrices using a pair of shrinkage priors.…
This paper investigates the robust optimal control of sampled-data stochastic systems with multiplicative noise and distributional ambiguity. We consider a class of discrete-time optimal control problems where the controller \emph{jointly}…
This paper considers a security constrained dispatch problem involving generation and line contingencies in the presence of the renewable generation. The uncertainty due to renewables is modeled using joint chance-constraint and the…
We consider optimal decision-making problems in an uncertain environment. In particular, we consider the case in which the distribution of the input is unknown, yet there is abundant historical data drawn from the distribution. In this…
We revisit Markowitz's mean-variance portfolio selection model by considering a distributionally robust version, where the region of distributional uncertainty is around the empirical measure and the discrepancy between probability measures…
Distributionally robust optimization (DRO) is a powerful technique to train robust models against data distribution shift. This paper aims to solve regularized nonconvex DRO problems, where the uncertainty set is modeled by a so-called…
Domain generalization is challenging due to the domain shift and the uncertainty caused by the inaccessibility of target domain data. In this paper, we address both challenges with a probabilistic framework based on variational Bayesian…