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Estimating motion from spatiotemporal geoscientific data is a fundamental component of many environmental modeling and forecasting tasks. In this work, we propose a physics-informed deep learning framework for estimating altitude-wise…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-30 Peter Pavlík , Anna Bou Ezzeddine , Viera Rozinajová

The accurate prediction of precipitation is important to allow for reliable warnings of flood or drought risk in a changing climate. However, to make trust-worthy predictions of precipitation, at a local scale, is one of the most difficult…

Computation · Statistics 2021-02-26 Sherman Lo , Peter Watson , Peter Dueben , Ritabrata Dutta

In this study, we propose a volume-to-point framework for quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) based on the Quantitative Precipitation Estimation and Segregation Using Multiple Sensor (QPESUMS) Mosaic Radar data set. With a data…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-02-16 Ting-Shuo Yo , Shih-Hao Su , Jung-Lien Chu , Chiao-Wei Chang , Hung-Chi Kuo

We address the problem of prediction for extreme observations by proposing an extremal linear prediction method. We construct an inner product space of nonnegative random variables derived from transformed-linear combinations of independent…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-21 Jeongjin Lee , Daniel Cooley

Extreme precipitation wreaks havoc throughout the world, causing billions of dollars in damage and uprooting communities, ecosystems, and economies. Accurate extreme precipitation prediction allows more time for preparation and disaster…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-01 Weichen Huang

Understanding the spatial extent of extreme precipitation is necessary for determining flood risk and adequately designing infrastructure (e.g., stormwater pipes) to withstand such hazards. While environmental phenomena typically exhibit…

Applications · Statistics 2020-03-25 Gregory P. Bopp , Benjamin A. Shaby , Raphaël Huser

High quality Quantitative Precipitation Estimation at high spatiotemporal resolution is crucial to many hydrologic/hydro-meteorological designs. Optimal Quantitative Precipitation Estimation of rainfall improves the accuracy of river and…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2021-09-03 Ruhollah Nasiri , Mohamad Sarajzadeh

In this paper, we present results on improving out-of-domain weather prediction and uncertainty estimation as part of the \texttt{Shifts Challenge on Robustness and Uncertainty under Real-World Distributional Shift} challenge. We find that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-10 Sankalp Gilda , Neel Bhandari , Wendy Mak , Andrea Panizza

Gridded estimated rainfall intensity values at very high spatial and temporal resolution levels are needed as main inputs for weather prediction models to obtain accurate precipitation forecasts, and to verify the performance of…

Applications · Statistics 2009-01-23 Montserrat Fuentes , Brian Reich , Gyuwon Lee

Inference on the extremal behaviour of spatial aggregates of precipitation is important for quantifying river flood risk. There are two classes of previous approach, with one failing to ensure self-consistency in inference across different…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-22 Jordan Richards , Jonathan A. Tawn , Simon Brown

Aiming to deliver improved precipitation simulations for hydrological impact assessment studies, we develop a methodology for modelling and simulating high-dimensional spatial precipitation extremes, focusing on both their marginal…

Applications · Statistics 2024-10-01 Silius M. Vandeskog , Raphaël Huser , Oddbjørn Bruland , Sara Martino

The accurate prediction of intense precipitation events is one of the main objectives of operational weather services. This task is even more relevant nowadays, with the rapid progression of global warming which intensifies these events.…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-02-12 Federico Grazzini , Joshua Dorrington , Christian M. Grams , George C. Craig , Linus Magnusson , Frederic Vitart

Lidar-based object detectors are critical parts of the 3D perception pipeline in autonomous navigation systems such as self-driving cars. However, they are known to be sensitive to adverse weather conditions such as rain, snow and fog due…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-07-16 Velat Kilic , Deepti Hegde , Vishwanath Sindagi , A. Brinton Cooper , Mark A. Foster , Vishal M. Patel

Short-range prediction of convective precipitation from weather radar observations is essential for severe weather warnings. However, deep learning models trained with pixel-wise error metrics tend to produce overly smooth forecasts that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-28 Haofei Cui , Guangxin He , Juanzhen Sun , Jingjia Luo , Haonan Chen , Xiaoran Zhuang , Mingxuan Chen , Xian Xiao

Autonomous perception requires high-quality environment sensing in the form of 3D bounding boxes of dynamic objects. The primary sensors used in automotive systems are light-based cameras and LiDARs. However, they are known to fail in…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-03-10 Kshitiz Bansal , Keshav Rungta , Siyuan Zhu , Dinesh Bharadia

Verifying probabilistic forecasts for extreme events is a highly active research area because popular media and public opinions are naturally focused on extreme events, and biased conclusions are readily made. In this context, classical…

Quality analysis of weather forecasts is an essential topic in meteorology. Although traditional score-based evaluation metrics can quantify certain forecast errors, they are still far from meteorological experts in terms of descriptive…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-08-19 Xuming He , Zhiyuan You , Junchao Gong , Couhua Liu , Xiaoyu Yue , Peiqin Zhuang , Wenlong Zhang , Lei Bai

With broad applications in various public services like aviation management and urban disaster warning, numerical precipitation prediction plays a crucial role in weather forecast. However, constrained by the limitation of observation and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-10-18 Xiaoyang Xu , Yiqun Liu , Hanqing Chao , Youcheng Luo , Hai Chu , Lei Chen , Junping Zhang , Leiming Ma

A 'nowcast' is a type of weather forecast which makes predictions in the very short term, typically less than two hours - a period in which traditional numerical weather prediction can be limited. This type of weather prediction has…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2020-05-12 Rachel Prudden , Samantha Adams , Dmitry Kangin , Niall Robinson , Suman Ravuri , Shakir Mohamed , Alberto Arribas

Forecasting extreme precipitation is essential yet challenging due to its rarity and complexity. We develop a large deviation framework to estimate the return times of extreme precipitation events. We first find that the Landau…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2026-04-14 Haotian Xie , Haoxian Liu , Jingfang Fan , Ying Tang