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Understanding and evaluating uncertainty play a key role in decision-making. When a viewer studies a visualization that demands inference, it is necessary that uncertainty is portrayed in it. This paper showcases the importance of…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2023-01-19 Krisha Mehta

Better representation of the uncertainty in a data visualisation is a focus of recent research activity. A problem with the current literature is that there is a lack of clarity about the definition of uncertainty and what it means to…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2026-03-30 Harriet Mason , Dianne Cook , Sarah Goodwin , Emi Tanaka , Susan VanderPlas

A very common task in data visualization is to plot many data points with some measured y-value as a function of fixed x-values. Uncertainties on the y-values are typically presented as vertical error bars that represent either a…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-05 Lukas Koch

Set visualization facilitates the exploration and analysis of set-type data. However, how sets should be visualized when the data is uncertain is still an open research challenge. To address the problem of depicting uncertainty in set…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2025-01-22 Christian Tominski , Michael Behrisch , Susanne Bleisch , Sara Irina Fabrikant , Eva Mayr , Silvia Miksch , Helen Purchase

Clear presentation of uncertainty is an exception rather than rule in media articles, data-driven reports, and consumer applications, despite proposed techniques for communicating sources of uncertainty in data. This work considers, Why do…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2019-08-07 Jessica Hullman

Uncertainty defines our age: it shapes climate, finance, technology, and society, yet remains profoundly misunderstood. We oscillate between the illusion of control and the paralysis of fatalism. This paper reframes uncertainty not as…

Physics and Society · Physics 2025-10-21 Didier Sornette

The common practice for displaying error bars on distributions of numbers of events is confusing and can lead to incorrect conclusions. A proposal is made for a different style of presentation that more directly indicates the level of…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2012-01-31 Ritu Aggarwal , Allen Caldwell

The availability heuristic is a strategy that people use to make quick decisions but often lead to systematic errors. We propose three ways that visualization could facilitate unbiased decision-making. First, visualizations can alter the…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2016-10-11 Evanthia Dimara , Pierre Dragicevic , Anastasia Bezerianos

Uncertainty visualizations often emphasize point estimates to support magnitude estimates or decisions through visual comparison. However, when design choices emphasize means, users may overlook uncertainty information and misinterpret…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2020-09-15 Alex Kale , Matthew Kay , Jessica Hullman

There are two reasons why uncertainty may not be adequately described by Probability Theory. The first one is due to unique or nearly-unique events, that either never realized or occurred too seldom for frequencies to be reliably measured.…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-03-17 Florian Ellsaesser , Guido Fioretti , Gail E. James

Causality has traditionally been a scientific way to generate knowledge by relating causes to effects. From an imaginery point of view, causal graphs are a helpful tool for representing and infering new causal information. In previous…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2020-02-07 Eduardo C. Garrido-Merchán , C. Puente , A. Sobrino , J. A. Olivas

Thematic maps are widely used to communicate spatial patterns to non-expert audiences. Although uncertainty is inherent in thematic map data, it is rarely visualized, raising questions about how its inclusion affects trust. Prior work…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2026-02-03 Varun Srivastava , Fan Lei , Alan M. MacEachren , Ross Maciejewski

Understanding and communicating data uncertainty is crucial for making informed decisions in sectors like finance and healthcare. Previous work has explored how to express uncertainty in various modes. For example, uncertainty can be…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2024-04-15 Chase Stokes , Chelsea Sanker , Bridget Cogley , Vidya Setlur

We present a general approach to visualizing uncertainty in static 2-D statistical graphics. If we treat a visualization as a function of its underlying quantities, uncertainty in those quantities induces a distribution over images. We show…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-10 Bernarda Petek , David Nabergoj , Erik Štrumbelj

We can overcome uncertainty with uncertainty. Using randomness in our choices and in what we control, and hence in the decision making process, could potentially offset the uncertainty inherent in the environment and yield better outcomes.…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2017-10-06 Ravi Kashyap

Current research provides methods to communicate uncertainty and adapts classical algorithms of the visualization pipeline to take the uncertainty into account. Various existing visualization frameworks include methods to present uncertain…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2024-09-17 Patrick Paetzold , David Hägele , Marina Evers , Daniel Weiskopf , Oliver Deussen

Maps have long been been used to visualise estimates of spatial variables, in particular disease burden and risk. Predictions made using a geostatistical model have uncertainty that typically varies spatially. However, this uncertainty is…

Applications · Statistics 2020-05-26 Aimee R Taylor , James A Watson , Caroline O Buckee

In this paper we address the uncertainty issues involved in the low-level vision task of image segmentation. Researchers in computer vision have worked extensively on this problem, in which the goal is to partition (or segment) an image…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-03-08 Steven M. LaValle , Seth A. Hutchinson

This paper presents an approach for developing the explanation capabilities of rule-based expert systems managing imprecise and uncertain knowledge. The treatment of uncertainty takes place in the framework of possibility theory where the…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-04-08 Henri Farrency , Henri Prade

Background: Even though data visualizations (and underlying data) almost always contain uncertainty, it remains complex to communicate and interpret uncertainty representations. Consequently, uncertainty visualizations for non-expert…

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