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Related papers: Randomization and ambiguity perception

200 papers

A range of empirical puzzles in finance has been explained as a consequence of traders being averse to ambiguity. Ambiguity averse traders can behave in financial portfolio problems in ways that cannot be rationalized as maximizing…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2022-08-24 Michael Greinecker , Christoph Kuzmics

Theoretically as well as experimentally it is investigated how people represent their knowledge in order to make decisions or to share their knowledge with others. Experiment 1 probes into the ways how people 6ather information about the…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-04-15 Alf C. Zimmer

This paper develops a model of reference-dependent assessment of subjective beliefs in which loss-averse people optimally choose the expectation as the reference point to balance the current felicity from the optimistic anticipation and the…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2013-10-14 Si Chen

We introduce a model-free preference under ambiguity, as a primitive trait of behavior, which we apply once as well as repeatedly. Its single and double application yield simple, easily interpretable definitions of ambiguity aversion and…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2025-01-24 Mücahit Aygün , Roger J. A. Laeven , Mitja Stadje

Consider a persuasion game where both the sender and receiver are ambiguity averse with maxmin expected utility (MEU) preferences and the sender can choose an ambiguous information structure. This paper analyzes the game in an ex-ante…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2026-02-12 Xiaoyu Cheng

In high-stakes applications, predictive models must not only produce accurate predictions but also quantify and communicate their uncertainty. Reject-option prediction addresses this by allowing the model to abstain when prediction…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-05-05 Vojtech Franc , Jakub Paplham

If we could define the set of all bad outcomes, we could hard-code an agent which avoids them; however, in sufficiently complex environments, this is infeasible. We do not know of any general-purpose approaches in the literature to avoiding…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2020-06-17 Michael K. Cohen , Marcus Hutter

Gilboa and Schmeidler's (1989) uncertainty aversion plays a central role in decision theory and economics, yet many inconsistent behaviors have been observed in experiments. Motivated by this, we study an axiom postulating a minimal degree…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2025-08-22 Kensei Nakamura , Shohei Yanagita

This paper investigates the problem of finding a preference relation on a set of acts from the knowledge of an ordering on events (subsets of states of the world) describing the decision-maker (DM)s uncertainty and an ordering of…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-02-08 Didier Dubois , Helene Fargier , Henri Prade

An algorithm effects a causal representation of relations between features and labels in the human's perception. Such a representation might conflict with the human's prior belief. Explanations can direct the human's attention to the…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2024-02-14 Charles Wan , Rodrigo Belo , Leid Zejnilović , Susana Lavado

An unconventional approach for optimal stopping under model ambiguity is introduced. Besides ambiguity itself, we take into account how ambiguity-averse an agent is. This inclusion of ambiguity attitude, via an $\alpha$-maxmin nonlinear…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-07-15 Yu-Jui Huang , Xiang Yu

Decision under ambiguity (uncertainty with unknown probabilities) has been attracting attention in behavioral and neuroeconomics. However, recent neuroimaging studies have mainly focused on gain domains while little attention has been paid…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2012-11-27 Keigo Inukai , Taiki Takahashi

It has been suggested that adversarial examples cause deep learning models to make incorrect predictions with high confidence. In this work, we take the opposite stance: an overly confident model is more likely to be vulnerable to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-02-14 Angus Galloway , Graham W. Taylor , Medhat Moussa

We elicit incomplete preferences over monetary gambles with subjective uncertainty. Subjects rank gambles, and these rankings are used to estimate preferences; payments are based on estimated preferences. About 40\% of subjects express…

General Economics · Economics 2022-10-06 Kirby Nielsen , Luca Rigotti

User queries are often underspecified and may admit multiple valid interpretations. Rather than silently making assumptions about the user's intent, a helpful assistant should surface such ambiguity by asking a clarifying question. Doing so…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-05-26 Jinyan Su , Claire Cardie

This paper proposes a model of decision-making under uncertainty in which an agent is constrained in her cognitive ability to consider complex acts. We identify the complexity of an act according to the corresponding partition of state…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2024-06-27 Yuan Gu , Chao Hung Chan

We study the experimentation dynamics of a decision maker (DM) in a two-armed bandit setup (Bolton and Harris (1999)), where the agent holds ambiguous beliefs regarding the distribution of the return process of one arm and is certain about…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2021-04-02 Farzad Pourbabaee

We experimentally study a game in which success requires a sufficient total contribution by members of a group. There are significant uncertainties surrounding the chance and the total effort required for success. A theoretical model with…

General Economics · Economics 2022-09-23 Pablo Brañas-Garza , Antonio Cabrales , María Paz Espinosa , Diego Jorrat

An agent choosing between various actions tends to take the one with the lowest cost. But this choice is arguably too rigid (not adaptive) to be useful in complex situations, e.g., where exploration-exploitation trade-off is relevant in…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2018-12-04 Armen E. Allahverdyan , Aram Galstyan , Ali E. Abbas , Zbigniew R. Struzik

People are often reluctant to incorporate information produced by algorithms into their decisions, a phenomenon called ``algorithm aversion''. This paper shows how algorithm aversion arises when the choice to follow an algorithm conveys…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2024-08-02 Gregory Weitzner