Related papers: A Bayesian Gaussian Process Dynamic Factor Model
The importance of unspanned macroeconomic variables for Dynamic Term Structure Models has been intensively discussed in the literature. To our best knowledge the earlier studies considered only linear interactions between the economy and…
Credible forecasting and representation learning of dynamical systems are of ever-increasing importance for reliable decision-making. To that end, we propose a family of Gaussian processes (GP) for dynamical systems with linear…
The Gaussian process latent variable model (GP-LVM) is a popular approach to non-linear probabilistic dimensionality reduction. One design choice for the model is the number of latent variables. We present a spike and slab prior for the…
This paper proposes a data-adaptive factor model (DAFM), a novel framework for extracting common factors that explain the structures of high-dimensional data. DAFM adopts a composite quantile strategy to adaptively capture the full…
Bayesian models based on Gaussian processes (GPs) offer a flexible framework to predict spatially distributed variables with uncertainty. But the use of nonstationary priors, often necessary for capturing complex spatial patterns, makes…
Linear non-Gaussian causal models postulate that each random variable is a linear function of parent variables and non-Gaussian exogenous error terms. We study identification of the linear coefficients when such models contain latent…
The paper proposes a latent variable model for binary data coming from an unobserved heterogeneous population. The heterogeneity is taken into account by replacing the traditional assumption of Gaussian distributed factors by a finite…
In nonlinear latent variable models or dynamic models, if we consider the latent variables as confounders (common causes), the noise dependencies imply further relations between the observed variables. Such models are then closely related…
We propose a heterogeneous simultaneous graphical dynamic linear model (H-SGDLM), which extends the standard SGDLM framework to incorporate a heterogeneous autoregressive realised volatility (HAR-RV) model. This novel approach creates a…
The Dynamical Gaussian Process Latent Variable Models provide an elegant non-parametric framework for learning the low dimensional representations of the high-dimensional time-series. Real world observational studies, however, are often…
In this paper, we introduce a probabilistic model for learning nonnegative matrix factorization (NMF) that is commonly used for predicting missing values and finding hidden patterns in the data, in which the matrix factors are latent…
We reconsider a nonparametric density model based on Gaussian processes. By augmenting the model with latent P\'olya--Gamma random variables and a latent marked Poisson process we obtain a new likelihood which is conjugate to the model's…
We review theory and methodology of the class of simultaneous graphical dynamic linear models (SGDLMs) that provide flexibility, parsimony and scalability of multivariate time series analysis. Discussion includes core theoretical aspects…
This work develops a Bayesian non-parametric approach to signal separation where the signals may vary according to latent variables. Our key contribution is to augment Gaussian Process Latent Variable Models (GPLVMs) for the case where each…
This paper proposes a variational Bayes algorithm for computationally efficient posterior and predictive inference in time-varying parameter (TVP) models. Within this context we specify a new dynamic variable/model selection strategy for…
In the analysis of observational data in social sciences and businesses, it is difficult to obtain a "(quasi) single-source dataset" in which the variables of interest are simultaneously observed. Instead, multiple-source datasets are…
We reconcile the two worlds of dense and sparse modeling by exploiting the positive aspects of both. We employ a factor model and assume {the dynamic of the factors is non-pervasive while} the idiosyncratic term follows a sparse vector…
Tensor decomposition is a fundamental framework to analyze data that can be represented by multi-dimensional arrays. In practice, tensor data is often accompanied by temporal information, namely the time points when the entry values were…
We introduce graph gamma process (GGP) linear dynamical systems to model real-valued multivariate time series. For temporal pattern discovery, the latent representation under the model is used to decompose the time series into a…
This paper introduces sparse dynamic chain graph models for network inference in high dimensional non-Gaussian time series data. The proposed method parametrized by a precision matrix that encodes the intra time-slice conditional…