Related papers: A Bayesian Gaussian Process Dynamic Factor Model
Estimating covariances between financial assets plays an important role in risk management. In practice, when the sample size is small compared to the number of variables, the empirical estimate is known to be very unstable. Here, we…
This article introduces a nonlinear generalized matrix factor model (GMFM) that allows for mixed-type variables, extending the scope of linear matrix factor models (LMFM) that are so far limited to handling continuous variables. We…
Data can be assumed to be continuous functions defined on an infinite-dimensional space for many phenomena. However, the infinite-dimensional data might be driven by a small number of latent variables. Hence, factor models are relevant for…
The Gaussian Process Latent Variable Model (GP-LVM) is a non-linear probabilistic method of embedding a high dimensional dataset in terms low dimensional `latent' variables. In this paper we illustrate that maximum a posteriori (MAP)…
Gaussian processes provide a compact representation for modeling and estimating an unknown function, that can be updated as new measurements of the function are obtained. This paper extends this powerful framework to the case where the…
Accurate forecasting of zero coupon bond yields for a continuum of maturities is paramount to bond portfolio management and derivative security pricing. Yet a universal model for yield curve forecasting has been elusive, and prior attempts…
This article is concerned with learning and stochastic control in physical systems which contain unknown input signals. These unknown signals are modeled as Gaussian processes (GP) with certain parametrized covariance structures. The…
We propose a new estimator for the Generalised Dynamic Factor Model (GDFM) that simplifies estimation by avoiding frequency-domain methods. Our key theoretical insight shows that under reasonable conditions the dynamic common component can…
We present a non-parametric Bayesian latent variable model capable of learning dependency structures across dimensions in a multivariate setting. Our approach is based on flexible Gaussian process priors for the generative mappings and…
Models with latent factors recently attract a lot of attention. However, most investigations focus on linear regression models and thus cannot capture nonlinearity. To address this issue, we propose a novel Factor Augmented Single-Index…
In this study, we propose a novel model called the Markov-switching dynamic matrix factor (Ms-DMF) model, which serves the dual purpose of structural interpretation and prediction for high-dimensional matrix time series. When estimating the…
In this paper we develop a novel approach for estimating large and sparse dynamic factor models using variational inference, also allowing for missing data. Inspired by Bayesian variable selection, we apply slab-and-spike priors onto the…
We discuss efficient Bayesian estimation of dynamic covariance matrices in multivariate time series through a factor stochastic volatility model. In particular, we propose two interweaving strategies (Yu and Meng, Journal of Computational…
The purpose of this paper is to provide a discussion, with illustrating examples, on Bayesian forecasting for dynamic generalized linear models (DGLMs). Adopting approximate Bayesian analysis, based on conjugate forms and on Bayes linear…
We introduce \underline{F}actor-\underline{A}ugmented \underline{Ma}trix \underline{R}egression (FAMAR) to address the growing applications of matrix-variate data and their associated challenges, particularly with high-dimensionality and…
Factor analysis is a flexible technique for assessment of multivariate dependence and codependence. Besides being an exploratory tool used to reduce the dimensionality of multivariate data, it allows estimation of common factors that often…
Distributed Gaussian process (DGP) is a popular approach to scale GP to big data which divides the training data into some subsets, performs local inference for each partition, and aggregates the results to acquire global prediction. To…
Parameter identification and comparison of dynamical systems is a challenging task in many fields. Bayesian approaches based on Gaussian process regression over time-series data have been successfully applied to infer the parameters of a…
We develop an automated variational method for inference in models with Gaussian process (GP) priors and general likelihoods. The method supports multiple outputs and multiple latent functions and does not require detailed knowledge of the…
Earth observation from satellite sensory data poses challenging problems, where machine learning is currently a key player. In recent years, Gaussian Process (GP) regression has excelled in biophysical parameter estimation tasks from…