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We consider the problem of data-driven stochastic optimal control of an unknown LTI dynamical system. Assuming the process noise is normally distributed, we pose the problem of steering the state's mean and covariance to a target normal…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-02-09 Joshua Pilipovsky , Panagiotis Tsiotras

This paper studies the expected optimal value of a mixed 0-1 programming problem with uncertain objective coefficients following a joint distribution. We assume that the true distribution is not known exactly, but a set of independent…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2017-08-28 Guanglin Xu , Samuel Burer

We consider the problem of direct data-driven predictive control for unknown stochastic linear time-invariant (LTI) systems with partial state observation. Building upon our previous research on data-driven stochastic control, this paper…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-09-12 Ruiqi Li , John W. Simpson-Porco , Stephen L. Smith

We propose a novel data-driven stochastic model predictive control framework for uncertain linear systems with noisy output measurements. Our approach leverages multi-step predictors to efficiently propagate uncertainty, ensuring chance…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-03-18 Haldun Balim , Andrea Carron , Melanie N. Zeilinger , Johannes Köhler

We consider perception-based control using state estimates that are obtained from high-dimensional sensor measurements via learning-enabled perception maps. However, these perception maps are not perfect and result in state estimation…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-08-29 Shuo Yang , George J. Pappas , Rahul Mangharam , Lars Lindemann

We propose a data-driven control method for systems with aleatoric uncertainty, for example, robot fleets with variations between agents. Our method leverages shared trajectory data to increase the robustness of the designed controller and…

Robotics · Computer Science 2024-03-25 Alexander von Rohr , Dmitrii Likhachev , Sebastian Trimpe

Computer vision systems that are deployed in safety-critical applications need to quantify their output uncertainty. We study regression from images to parameter values and here it is common to detect uncertainty by predicting probability…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-24 Ziliang Xiong , Arvi Jonnarth , Abdelrahman Eldesokey , Joakim Johnander , Bastian Wandt , Per-Erik Forssen

Uncertainty quantification is crucial for building reliable and trustable machine learning systems. We propose to estimate uncertainty in recurrent neural networks (RNNs) via stochastic discrete state transitions over recurrent timesteps.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-11-25 Cheng Wang , Carolin Lawrence , Mathias Niepert

This work presents a new Distributionally Robust Optimization approach, using $p$-Wasserstein metrics, to analyze a stochastic program in a general context. The ambiguity set in this approach depends on the decision variable and is…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-03-08 Diego Fonseca , Mauricio Junca

Motion planning is a fundamental problem and focuses on finding control inputs that enable a robot to reach a goal region while safely avoiding obstacles. However, in many situations, the state of the system may not be known but only…

Robotics · Computer Science 2021-08-30 Lars Lindemann , Matthew Cleaveland , Yiannis Kantaros , George J. Pappas

Domain generalization aims at learning a universal model that performs well on unseen target domains, incorporating knowledge from multiple source domains. In this research, we consider the scenario where different domain shifts occur among…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-26 Jingge Wang , Liyan Xie , Yao Xie , Shao-Lun Huang , Yang Li

Wasserstein distributionally robust optimization (WDRO) optimizes against worst-case distributional shifts within a specified uncertainty set, leading to enhanced generalization on unseen adversarial examples, compared to standard…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-07 Shuang Liu , Yihan Wang , Yifan Zhu , Yibo Miao , Xiao-Shan Gao

We present a nonparametric framework to model a short sequence of probability distributions that vary both due to underlying effects of sequential progression and confounding noise. To distinguish between these two types of variation and…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-02-08 Jonas Mueller , Tommi Jaakkola , David Gifford

Classical stochastic control assumes perfect knowledge of the uncertainty affecting the plant. In practice, however, such information is often incomplete. To address this limitation, we consider a distributionally robust control (DRC)…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-05-06 Riccardo Cescon , Andrea Martin , Giancarlo Ferrari-Trecate

To address the issue of inaccurate distributions in practical stochastic systems, a minimax linear-quadratic control method is proposed using the Wasserstein metric. Our method aims to construct a control policy that is robust against…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-02-26 Kihyun Kim , Insoon Yang

Forecasting the evolution of complex systems is one of the grand challenges of modern data science. The fundamental difficulty lies in understanding the structure of the observed stochastic process. In this paper, we show that every…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-01-01 Xiucai Ding , Zhou Zhou

The autocovariance and cross-covariance functions naturally appear in many time series procedures (e.g., autoregression or prediction). Under assumptions, empirical versions of the autocovariance and cross-covariance are asymptotically…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-05-09 Andreas Anastasiou , Tobias Kley

This paper proposes a unit commitment (UC) model based on data-driven Wasserstein distributionally robust optimization (WDRO) for power systems under uncertainty of renewable generation as well as its tractable exact reformulation. The…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-08-17 Youngchae Cho , Insoon Yang

In this paper, we present a novel data-driven approach to quantify safety for non-linear, discrete-time stochastic systems with unknown noise distribution. We define safety as the probability that the system remains in a given region of the…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-10-10 Frederik Baymler Mathiesen , Licio Romao , Simeon C. Calvert , Luca Laurenti , Alessandro Abate

This paper studies optimal control problems of unknown linear systems subject to stochastic disturbances of uncertain distribution. Uncertainty about the stochastic disturbances is usually described via ambiguity sets of probability…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-06-30 Guanru Pan , Timm Faulwasser