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Robust Bayesian inference is the calculation of posterior probability bounds given perturbations in a probabilistic model. This paper focuses on perturbations that can be expressed locally in Bayesian networks through convex sets of…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-02-08 Fabio Gagliardi Cozman

The fundamental limits of remote estimation of Markov processes under communication constraints are presented. The remote estimation system consists of a sensor and an estimator. The sensor observes a discrete-time Markov process, which is…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2016-06-14 Jhelum Chakravorty , Aditya Mahajan

In this article we consider the nonparametric robust estimation problem for regression models in continuous time with semi-Markov noises observed in discrete time moments. An adaptive model selection procedure is proposed. A sharp…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-05-15 Vlad Stefan Barbu , Slim Beltaief , Serguei Pergamenshchikov

Distributed systems have been widely used in practice to accomplish data analysis tasks of huge scales. In this work, we target on the estimation problem of generalized linear models on a distributed system with nonrandomly distributed…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-04-07 Feifei Wang , Danyang Huang , Yingqiu Zhu , Hansheng Wang

Many probabilistic inference problems such as stochastic filtering or the computation of rare event probabilities require model analysis under initial and terminal constraints. We propose a solution to this bridging problem for the widely…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-05-28 Michael Backenköhler , Luca Bortolussi , Gerrit Großmann , Verena Wolf

This paper proposes a fully distributed robust state-estimation (D-RBSE) method that is applicable to multi-area power systems with nonlinear measurements. We extend the recently introduced bilinear formulation of state estimation problems…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2015-08-18 Weiye Zheng , Wenchuan Wu , Antonio Gomez-Exposito , Boming Zhang

This paper presents a Bayesian method for identification of jump Markov linear system parameters. A primary motivation is to provide accurate quantification of parameter uncertainty without relying on asymptotic in data-length arguments. To…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-02-11 Mark P. Balenzuela , Adrian G. Wills , Christopher Renton , Brett Ninness

We consider the estimation of a signal from the knowledge of its noisy linear random Gaussian projections, a problem relevant in compressed sensing, sparse superposition codes or code division multiple access just to cite few. There has…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2017-03-24 Jean Barbier , Mohamad Dia , Nicolas Macris , Florent Krzakala

We develop a new bidirectional algorithm for estimating Markov chain multi-step transition probabilities: given a Markov chain, we want to estimate the probability of hitting a given target state in $\ell$ steps after starting from a given…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2015-11-05 Siddhartha Banerjee , Peter Lofgren

There is a lack of simple and scalable algorithms for uncertainty quantification. Bayesian methods quantify uncertainty through posterior and predictive distributions, but it is difficult to rapidly estimate summaries of these…

Computation · Statistics 2016-12-28 Cheng Li , Sanvesh Srivastava , David B. Dunson

The paper deals with state estimation of a spatially distributed system given noisy measurements from pointwise-in-time-and-space threshold sensors spread over the spatial domain of interest. A Maximum A posteriori Probability (MAP)…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2019-09-24 Giorgio Battistelli , Luigi Chisci , Nicola Forti , Stefano Gherardini

We observe n possibly dependent random variables, the distribution of which is presumed to be stationary even though this might not be true, and we aim at estimating the stationary distribution. We establish a non-asymptotic deviation bound…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-07-10 Alexandre Lecestre

We present a convex-concave reformulation of the reversible Markov chain estimation problem and outline an efficient numerical scheme for the solution of the resulting problem based on a primal-dual interior point method for monotone…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2016-03-08 Benjamin Trendelkamp-Schroer , Hao Wu , Frank Noe

This paper is concerned with general nonlinear regression models where the predictor variables are subject to Berkson-type measurement errors. The measurement errors are assumed to have a general parametric distribution, which is not…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-08-21 Liqun Wang

While distributed parameter estimation has been extensively studied in the literature, little has been achieved in terms of robust analysis and tuning methods in the presence of disturbances. However, disturbances such as measurement noise…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-01-26 Nicolai Lorenz-Meyer , Juan G. Rueda-Escobedo , Jaime A. Moreno , Johannes Schiffer

This paper presents a method for calculating the smoothed state distribution for Jump Markov Linear Systems. More specifically, the paper details a novel two-filter smoother that provides closed-form expressions for the smoothed hybrid…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-04-21 Mark P. Balenzuela , Adrian G. Wills , Christopher Renton , Brett Ninness

We propose a moving horizon estimation scheme to estimate the states and the unknown constant parameters of general nonlinear uncertain discrete-time systems. The proposed framework and analysis explicitly do not involve the a priori…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-12-22 Julian D. Schiller , Matthias A. Müller

We design scheduling policies that minimize a risk-sensitive cost criterion for a remote estimation setup. Since risk-sensitive cost objective takes into account not just the mean value of the cost, but also higher order moments of its…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-03-22 Manali Dutta , Rahul Singh

We address the problem of identifying the dynamical law governing the evolution of a population of indistinguishable particles, when only aggregate distributions at successive times are observed. Assuming a Markovian evolution on a discrete…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-11-21 Michele Mascherpa , Axel Ringh , Amirhossein Taghvaei , Johan Karlsson

This paper studies the problem of recursively estimating the weighted adjacency matrix of a network out of a temporal sequence of binary-valued observations. The observation sequence is generated from nonlinear networked dynamics in which…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2019-12-06 Yu Xing , Xingkang He , Haitao Fang , Karl Henrik Johansson