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The epidemic threshold of a spreading process indicates the condition for the occurrence of the wide spreading regime, thus representing a predictor of the network vulnerability to the epidemic. Such threshold depends on the natural history…
Clinical transfusion-outcomes research faces unique methodological challenges compared with other areas of clinical research. These challenges arise because patients frequently receive multiple transfusions, each unit originates from a…
Estimation of treatment efficacy of real-world clinical interventions involves working with continuous outcomes such as time-to-death, re-hospitalization, or a composite event that may be subject to censoring. Counterfactual reasoning in…
The Predictive Approaches to Treatment Effect Heterogeneity statement focused on baseline risk as a robust predictor of treatment effect and provided guidance on risk-based assessment of treatment effect heterogeneity in the RCT setting.…
Interval-censored competing risks data arise when each study subject may experience an event or failure from one of several causes and the failure time is not observed exactly but rather known to lie in an interval between two successive…
In several countries, including Italy, a prominent approach to population health surveillance involves conducting repeated cross-sectional surveys at short intervals of time. These surveys gather information on the health status of…
We develop randomization-based tests for heterogeneous treatment effects in the presence of network interference. Leveraging the exposure mapping framework, we study a broad class of null hypotheses that represent various forms of constant…
In the present work the spread of epidemic is studied over complex networks which are characterized by power law degree distribution of links and heterogeneous rate of disease transmission. The random allocation of epidemic transmission…
Defining and identifying causal intervention effects for transmissible infectious disease outcomes is challenging because a treatment -- such as a vaccine -- given to one individual may affect the infection outcomes of others.…
Participation incentives is a well-known issue inhibiting randomized controlled trials (RCTs) in medicine, as well as a potential cause of user dissatisfaction for RCTs in online platforms. We frame this issue as a non-standard…
This paper studies relations among axioms on individuals' intertemporal choices under risk. The focus is on Risk Averse over Time Lotteries (RATL), meaning that a fixed prize is preferred to a lottery with the same monetary prize but a…
When comparing time-varying treatments in a non-randomised setting, one must often correct for time-dependent confounders that influence treatment choice over time and that are themselves influenced by treatment. We present a new two step…
We study a well mixed SIR epidemic model with heterogeneous susceptibility and infectivity, allowing for an arbitrary joint distribution of these traits. Using an exact final size formulation and a branching process approximation for early…
The objective is to model longitudinal and survival data jointly taking into account the dependence between the two responses in a real HIV/AIDS dataset using a shared parameter approach inside a Bayesian framework. We propose a linear…
Empirical researchers routinely invoke the no-interference or \textit{individualistic treatment response} (ITR) assumption to identify causal effects in observational studies, despite concerns that interference across units may arise in…
Many progresses in the understanding of epidemic spreading models have been obtained thanks to numerous modeling efforts and analytical and numerical studies, considering host populations with very different structures and properties,…
Causal inference with interference is a rapidly growing area. The literature has begun to relax the "no-interference" assumption that the treatment received by one individual does not affect the outcomes of other individuals. In this paper…
Recent empirical observations suggest a heterogeneous nature of human activities. The heavy-tailed inter-event time distribution at population level is well accepted, while whether the individual acts in a heterogeneous way is still under…
Specifications that impose constant treatment effects are common but biased, while fully flexible alternatives can be imprecise or infeasible. Under a bound on treatment effect heterogeneity, we propose a generalized ridge estimator,…
Herd immunity is a critical concept in epidemiology, describing a threshold at which a sufficient proportion of a population is immune, either through infection or vaccination, thereby preventing sustained transmission of a pathogen. In the…