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We explore the emergence of persistent infection in a patch of population, where the disease progression of the individuals is given by the SIRS model and an individual becomes infected on contact with another infected individual. We…
Randomized trials and observational studies, more often than not, run over a certain period of time. The treatment effect evolves during this period which provides crucial insights into the treatment response and the long-term effects. Many…
Mathematical models are increasing adopted for setting targets for disease prevention and control. As model-informed policies are implemented, however, the inaccuracies of some forecasts become apparent, for example overprediction of…
We analytically address disease outbreaks in large, random networks with heterogeneous infectivity and susceptibility. The transmissibility $T_{uv}$ (the probability that infection of $u$ causes infection of $v$) depends on the infectivity…
Understanding how the causal effect of a treatment evolves over time, including the potential for waning, is important for informed decisions on treatment discontinuation or repetition. For example, waning vaccine protection influences…
Experimenters often collect baseline data to study heterogeneity. I propose the first valid confidence intervals for the VCATE, the treatment effect variance explained by observables. Conventional approaches yield incorrect coverage when…
For a reliable prediction of an epidemic or information spreading pattern in complex systems, well-defined measures are essential. In the susceptible-infected model on heterogeneous networks, the cluster of infected nodes in the…
Machine learning is increasingly used to select which individuals receive limited-resource interventions in domains such as human services, education, development, and more. However, it is often not apparent what the right quantity is for…
Changes in human behavior are increasingly recognized as a major determinant of epidemic dynamics. Although collective activity can be modified through imposed measures to control epidemic progression, spontaneous changes can also arise as…
The annual occurrence of many infectious diseases remains a constant burden to public health systems. The seasonal patterns in respiratory disease incidence observed in temperate regions have been attributed to the impact of environmental…
We consider time to treatment initiation. This can commonly occur in preventive medicine, such as disease screening and vaccination; it can also occur with non-fatal health conditions such as HIV infection without the onset of AIDS. While…
Human pathogens transmitted through environmental pathways are subject to stress and pressures outside of the host. These pressures may cause pathogen pathovars to diverge in their environmental persistence and their infectivity on an…
We argue that randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are special even among settings where average treatment effects are identified by a nonparametric unconfoundedness assumption. This claim follows from two results of Robins and Ritov (1997):…
Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) often suffer from limited sample sizes due to high costs and lengthy recruitment periods, compromising precision in treatment effect estimation. External real-world control data offer a valuable…
We study numerically the variability of the outbreak of diseases on complex networks. We use a SI model to simulate the disease spreading at short times, in homogeneous and in scale-free networks. In both cases, we study the effect of…
Studies accumulate over time and meta-analyses are mainly retrospective. These two characteristics introduce dependencies between the analysis time, at which a series of studies is up for meta-analysis, and results within the series.…
Motivated by the importance of individual differences in risk perception and behavior change in people's responses to infectious disease outbreaks (particularly the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic), we propose a heterogeneous…
Up to now, the effects of having heterogeneous networks of contacts have been studied mostly for diseases which are not persistent in time, i.e., for diseases where the infectious period can be considered very small compared to the lifetime…
Strategic test allocation plays a major role in the control of both emerging and existing pandemics (e.g., COVID-19, HIV). Widespread testing supports effective epidemic control by (1) reducing transmission via identifying cases, and (2)…
This paper addresses the sample selection model within the context of the gender gap problem, where even random treatment assignment is affected by selection bias. By offering a robust alternative free from distributional or specification…