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Modelling uncertainty in Machine Learning models is essential for achieving safe and reliable predictions. Most research on uncertainty focuses on output uncertainty (predictions), but minimal attention is paid to uncertainty at inputs. We…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-28 Matias Valdenegro-Toro , Ivo Pascal de Jong , Marco Zullich

When collaborating with an AI system, we need to assess when to trust its recommendations. If we mistakenly trust it in regions where it is likely to err, catastrophic failures may occur, hence the need for Bayesian approaches for…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-02-23 Federico Cerutti , Lance M. Kaplan , Angelika Kimmig , Murat Sensoy

The increasing deployment of artificial intelligence (AI) in clinical settings challenges foundational assumptions underlying traditional frameworks of medical evidence. Classical statistical approaches, centered on randomized controlled…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-07 Richik Chakraborty

Quantitative Artificial Intelligence (AI) Benchmarks have emerged as fundamental tools for evaluating the performance, capability, and safety of AI models and systems. Currently, they shape the direction of AI development and are playing an…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-05-27 Maria Eriksson , Erasmo Purificato , Arman Noroozian , Joao Vinagre , Guillaume Chaslot , Emilia Gomez , David Fernandez-Llorca

Recently, artificial intelligence and machine learning in general have demonstrated remarkable performances in many tasks, from image processing to natural language processing, especially with the advent of deep learning. Along with…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-23 Erico Tjoa , Cuntai Guan

Techniques for understanding the functioning of complex machine learning models are becoming increasingly popular, not only to improve the validation process, but also to extract new insights about the data via exploratory analysis. Though…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-11-02 Jayaraman J. Thiagarajan , Irene Kim , Rushil Anirudh , Peer-Timo Bremer

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is a promising approach to improve model reliability, yet quantifying the uncertainty of Large Language Models (LLMs) is non-trivial. In this work, we establish a connection between the uncertainty of LLMs…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-10-16 Mingda Li , Xinyu Li , Weinan Zhang , Longxuan Ma

As Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in real-world applications, reliable uncertainty quantification (UQ) becomes critical for safe and effective use. Most existing UQ approaches for language models aim to produce a…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-04-14 Maiya Goloburda , Roman Vashurin , Fedor Chernogorsky , Nurkhan Laiyk , Daniil Orel , Preslav Nakov , Maxim Panov

This paper addresses a significant gap in explainable AI: the necessity of interpreting epistemic uncertainty in model explanations. Although current methods mainly focus on explaining predictions, with some including uncertainty, they fail…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-10-10 Helena Löfström , Tuwe Löfström , Johan Hallberg Szabadvary

Artificial Intelligence (AI) increasingly shows its potential to outperform predicate logic algorithms and human control alike. In automatically deriving a system model, AI algorithms learn relations in data that are not detectable for…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-10-12 Simon Daniel Duque Anton , Daniel Schneider , Hans Dieter Schotten

As large language models (LLMs) are increasingly integrated into high-stakes decision-making, the ability to reliably quantify uncertainty has become a critical requirement for safety and trust. However, current uncertainty quantification…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-05-28 Seongjun Lee , Suwan Yoon , Changhee Lee

Recent concern about harms of information technologies motivate consideration of regulatory action to forestall or constrain certain developments in the field of artificial intelligence (AI). However, definitional ambiguity hampers the…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2019-12-25 P. M. Krafft , Meg Young , Michael Katell , Karen Huang , Ghislain Bugingo

Reliable uncertainty quantification is essential for the use of machine learning in physics, where scientific discoveries depend on validated probabilistic statements. We provide a structured overview of uncertainty quantification in ML for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-12 Manuel Haußmann , Ramon Winterhalder , Maria Ubiali

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is one of the most transformative technologies of the 21st century. The extent and scope of future AI capabilities remain a key uncertainty, with widespread disagreement on timelines and potential impacts. As…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-11-27 Kyle A. Kilian , Christopher J. Ventura , Mark M. Bailey

Modern Large Language Models (LLMs) often require external tools, such as machine learning classifiers or knowledge retrieval systems, to provide accurate answers in domains where their pre-trained knowledge is insufficient. This…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-23 Panagiotis Lymperopoulos , Vasanth Sarathy

Empowering large language models to accurately express confidence in their answers is essential for trustworthy decision-making. Previous confidence elicitation methods, which primarily rely on white-box access to internal model information…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-03-19 Miao Xiong , Zhiyuan Hu , Xinyang Lu , Yifei Li , Jie Fu , Junxian He , Bryan Hooi

This paper describes the incorporation of uncertainty in diagnostic reasoning based on the set covering model of Reggia et. al. extended to what in the Artificial Intelligence dichotomy between deep and compiled (shallow, surface) knowledge…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-04-12 Charles I. Kalme

Although large language models (LLMs) are highly interactive and extendable, current approaches to ensure reliability in deployments remain mostly limited to rejecting outputs with high uncertainty in order to avoid misinformation. This…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-10 T. Duy Nguyen-Hien , Desi R. Ivanova , Yee Whye Teh , Wee Sun Lee

Recent advancements in AI applications to healthcare have shown incredible promise in surpassing human performance in diagnosis and disease prognosis. With the increasing complexity of AI models, however, concerns regarding their opacity,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-17 Munib Mesinovic , Peter Watkinson , Tingting Zhu

Artificial intelligence systems increasingly mediate knowledge, communication, and decision making. Development and governance remain concentrated within a small set of firms and states, raising concerns that technologies may encode narrow…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-02-12 Rashid Mushkani