Related papers: A Framework for a Comprehensive National Future Re…
We introduce the fragility spectrum, a quantitative framework to measure the resilience of model-theoretic properties (e.g., stability, NIP, NTP$_2$, decidability) under language expansions. The core is the fragility index…
Performative prediction is a framework accounting for the shift in the data distribution induced by the prediction of a model deployed in the real world. Ensuring rapid convergence to a stable solution where the data distribution remains…
This paper introduces the Impact-Driven AI Framework (IDAIF), a novel architectural methodology that integrates Theory of Change (ToC) principles with modern artificial intelligence system design. As AI systems increasingly influence…
In developing countries, building codes often are outdated or not enforced. As a result, a large portion of the housing stock is substandard and vulnerable to natural hazards and climate related events. Assessing housing quality is key to…
Critical infrastructure is not indestructible. Threats, both emergent and systemic, have propagated beyond historical norms that risk mitigation efforts alone cannot alleviate. Interdependencies between infrastructural systems compound…
Sustainability and resilience of urban systems are multifaceted concepts, requiring information about multiple system attributes to adequately evaluate and characterize. However, despite the scientific consensus on the multivariate nature…
Despite widespread discussion of AGI, there is no clear framework for measuring progress toward it. This ambiguity fuels subjective claims, makes it difficult to track progress, and risks hindering responsible governance. As a starting…
Assessing and managing the impact of large-scale epidemics considering only the individual risk and severity of the disease is exceedingly difficult and could be extremely expensive. Economic consequences, infrastructure and service…
Accurate vulnerability assessment of critical infrastructure systems is cardinal to enhance infrastructure resilience. Unlike traditional approaches, this paper proposes a novel infrastructure vulnerability assessment framework that…
Machine learning models achieve state-of-the-art performance across domains, yet their lack of interpretability limits safe deployment in high-stakes settings. Counterfactual explanations are widely used to provide actionable "what-if"…
We propose a new parametrization for the estimation and identification of the impulse-response functions (IRFs) of dynamic factor models (DFMs). The theoretical contribution of this paper concerns the problem of observational equivalence…
A common problem in risk analysis is to characterize the overall security of a system of valuable assets (e.g., government buildings or communication hubs), and to suggest measures to mitigate any hazards or security threats. Currently,…
A risk analyst assesses potential financial losses based on multiple sources of information. Often, the assessment does not only depend on the specification of the loss random variable but also various economic scenarios. Motivated by this…
The rapidly changing landscapes of modern optimization problems require algorithms that can be adapted in real-time. This paper introduces an Adaptive Metaheuristic Framework (AMF) designed for dynamic environments. It is capable of…
This paper presents an adaptive control approach for uncertain nonlinear systems subject to safety constraints that allows for modularity in the selection of the parameter estimation algorithm. Such modularity is achieved by unifying the…
Diverse sociocultural influences in rapidly growing dense urban areas may induce strain on civil services and reduce the resilience of those areas to exogenous and endogenous shocks. We present a novel approach with foundations in computer…
Adaptive exploration methods propose ways to learn complex policies via alternating between exploration and exploitation. An important question for such methods is to determine the appropriate moment to switch between exploration and…
This paper investigates the time-varying impacts of international macroeconomic uncertainty shocks. We use a global vector autoregressive specification with drifting coefficients and factor stochastic volatility in the errors to model six…
Wildfire events have caused severe losses in many places around the world and are expected to increase with climate change. Throughout the years many technologies have been developed to identify fire events early on and to simulate fire…
Resilience is a rehashed concept in natural hazard management - resilience of cities to earthquakes, to floods, to fire, etc. In a word, a system is said to be resilient if there exists a strategy that can drive the system state back to…