Related papers: A Framework for a Comprehensive National Future Re…

Resilience is a key driver for planning adaptation strategies to mitigate risks due to both natural and anthropogenic hazards. The effectiveness of a resilience-driven decision-making strategy for adapting systems against stressors depends…

Modelling how a shock propagates in a temporal network and how the system relaxes back to equilibrium is challenging but important in many applications, such as financial systemic risk. Most studies so far have focused on shocks hitting a…

In this paper we provide a flexible framework allowing for a unified study of time consistency of risk measures and performance measures (also known as acceptability indices). The proposed framework not only integrates existing forms of…

Financial crises emerge when structural vulnerabilities accumulate across sectors, markets, and investor behavior. Predicting these systemic transitions is challenging because they arise from evolving interactions between market…

In a globalised world, inflation in a given country may be becoming less responsive to domestic economic activity, while being increasingly determined by international conditions. Consequently, understanding the international sources of…

Resilience is widely recognized as an important design goal though it is one that seems to escape a general and consensual understanding. Often mixed up with other system attributes; traditionally used with different meanings in as many…

In the dynamic cyber threat landscape, effective decision-making under uncertainty is crucial for maintaining robust information security. This paper introduces the Cyber Resilience Index (CRI), a threat-informed probabilistic approach to…

In this paper, we present a unified framework for decision making under uncertainty. Our framework is based on the composite of two risk measures, where the inner risk measure accounts for the risk of decision given the exact distribution…

Classification models play a central role in data-driven decision-making applications such as medical diagnosis, recommendation systems, and risk assessment. Traditional performance metrics, such as accuracy and AUC, focus on overall error…

This paper develops an axiomatic framework for ranking metrics, a general class of functionals for evaluating and ordering financial or insurance positions. Unlike traditional risk-adjusted performance measures-such as the Sharpe ratio,…

This paper develops a continuous-time filtering framework for estimating a hazard rate subject to an unobservable change-point. This framework naturally arises in both financial and insurance applications, where the default intensity of a…

Implementation of digital health systems in low-middle-income countries (LMICs) often fails due to a lack of evaluations that take into account infrastructure limitations, local policies, and community readiness. We introduce HOT-FIT-BR, a…

The performance of Machine Learning (ML) and Deep Learning (DL)-based Intrusion Detection and Prevention Systems (IDS/IPS) is critically dependent on the relevance and quality of the datasets used for training and evaluation. However,…

Dynamical systems, that are used to model power grids, the brain, and other physical systems, can exhibit coexisting stable states known as attractors. A powerful tool to understand such systems, as well as to better predict when they may…

Resilience of safety-critical systems is gaining importance, particularly with the increasing number of cyber and physical threats. Cyber-physical threats are becoming increasingly prevalent, as digital systems are ubiquitous in critical…

It is now widely recognised that components of the environment play the role of economic assets, termed natural capital, that are a foundation of social and economic development. National governments monitor the state and trends of natural…

Drawing from engineering systems and control theory, we introduce a framework to understand repository stability, which is a repository activity capacity to return to equilibrium following disturbances - such as a sudden influx of bug…

When the climate system is forced, e.g. by emission of greenhouse gases, it responds on multiple time scales. As temperatures rise, feedback processes might intensify or weaken. Current methods to analyze feedback strength, however, do not…

Risk assessments for a pediatric population are often conducted across multiple stages. For example, clinicians may evaluate risks prenatally, at birth, and during Well-Child visits. Although predictions made at later stages typically…

The accelerating shift toward low and ultra-low fertility has intensified the debate over whether countries now undergoing rapid decline are approaching stabilization or entering a more persistent low-fertility regime. Existing projection…