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Related papers: TECP: Token-Entropy Conformal Prediction for LLMs

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Conformal Prediction (CP) provides a statistical framework for uncertainty quantification that constructs prediction sets with coverage guarantees. While CP yields uncontrolled prediction set sizes, Backward Conformal Prediction (BCP)…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-19 Junxian Liu , Hao Zeng , Hongxin Wei

The conformalClassification package implements Transductive Conformal Prediction (TCP) and Inductive Conformal Prediction (ICP) for classification problems. Conformal Prediction (CP) is a framework that complements the predictions of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-04-17 Niharika Gauraha , Ola Spjuth

Quantifying uncertainty in automatically generated text is important for letting humans check potential hallucinations and making systems more reliable. Conformal prediction is an attractive framework to provide predictions imbued with…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-02-02 Dennis Ulmer , Chrysoula Zerva , André F. T. Martins

Conformal prediction is a framework that provides valid uncertainty quantification for general models with exchangeable data. However, in the online learning and time-series settings, exchangeability is not satisfied. Existing online…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-11 Yuheng Lai , Garvesh Raskutti

Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) has demonstrated superior performance in enhancing the reasoning capability of large language models (LLMs). However, this accuracy-oriented learning paradigm often suffers from entropy…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-01-19 Hongye Cao , Zhixin Bai , Ziyue Peng , Boyan Wang , Tianpei Yang , Jing Huo , Yuyao Zhang , Yang Gao

Conformal Prediction (CP) provides distribution-free uncertainty quantification by constructing prediction sets that guarantee coverage of the true labels. This reliability makes CP valuable for high-stakes federated learning scenarios such…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-21 Rui Xu , Xingyuan Chen , Wenxing Huang , Minxuan Huang , Yun Xie , Weiyan Chen , Sihong Xie

Uncertain knowledge graph embedding (UnKGE) methods learn vector representations that capture both structural and uncertainty information to predict scores of unseen triples. However, existing methods produce only point estimates, without…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-30 Yuqicheng Zhu , Jingcheng Wu , Yizhen Wang , Hongkuan Zhou , Jiaoyan Chen , Evgeny Kharlamov , Steffen Staab

Large language models (LLMs) are empowering decision-making in several applications, including tool or API usage and answering multiple-choice questions (MCQs). However, incorrect outputs pose significant risks in high-stakes domains like…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-15 Harit Vishwakarma , Alan Mishler , Thomas Cook , Niccolò Dalmasso , Natraj Raman , Sumitra Ganesh

Accurately quantifying a large language model's (LLM) predictive uncertainty is crucial for judging the reliability of its answers. While most existing research focuses on short, directly answerable questions with closed-form outputs (e.g.,…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-08-08 Yinghao Li , Rushi Qiang , Lama Moukheiber , Chao Zhang

The translation of written language has been known since the 3rd century BC; however, its necessity has become increasingly common in the information age. Today, many translators exist, based on encoder-decoder deep architectures,…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-11-18 Ronit D. Gross , Yanir Harel , Ido Kanter

Selective prediction systems can mitigate harms resulting from language model hallucinations by abstaining from answering in high-risk cases. Uncertainty quantification techniques are often employed to identify such cases, but are rarely…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-03-24 Edward Phillips , Fredrik K. Gustafsson , Sean Wu , Anshul Thakur , David A. Clifton

By processing electronic health records (EHRs) as natural language sequences, large language models (LLMs) have shown potential in clinical prediction tasks such as mortality prediction and phenotyping. However, longitudinal or highly…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-05-13 Mingcheng Zhu , Zhiyao Luo , Yu Liu , Tingting Zhu

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is important to machine learning (ML) force fields to assess the level of confidence during prediction, as ML models are not inherently physical and can therefore yield catastrophically incorrect predictions.…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2022-11-22 Yuge Hu , Joseph Musielewicz , Zachary Ulissi , Andrew J. Medford

Reasoning models often outperform smaller models but at 3--5$\times$ higher cost and added latency. We present entropy-guided refinement: a lightweight, test-time loop that uses token-level uncertainty to trigger a single, targeted…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-09-03 Andrew G. A. Correa , Ana C. H de Matos

Diffusion-based large language models (dLLMs) rely on bidirectional attention, which prevents lossless KV caching and requires a full forward pass at every denoising step. Existing approximate KV caching methods reduce this cost by…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-03-20 Minsoo Cheong , Donghyun Son , Woosang Lim , Sungjoo Yoo

Based on the framework of Conformal Prediction (CP), we study the online construction of confidence sets given a black-box machine learning model. By converting the target confidence levels into quantile levels, the problem can be reduced…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-23 Zhiyu Zhang , Zhou Lu , Heng Yang

We present recent advances in formal verification and control for autonomous systems with practical safety guarantees enabled by conformal prediction (CP), a statistical tool for uncertainty quantification. This survey is particularly…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-08-19 Lars Lindemann , Yiqi Zhao , Xinyi Yu , George J. Pappas , Jyotirmoy V. Deshmukh

Conformal prediction is an emerging technique for uncertainty quantification that constructs prediction sets guaranteed to contain the true label with a predefined probability. Recent work develops online conformal prediction methods that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-17 Huajun Xi , Kangdao Liu , Hao Zeng , Wenguang Sun , Hongxin Wei

While existing depression prediction methods based on deep learning show promise, their practical application is hindered by the lack of trustworthiness, as these deep models are often deployed as black box models, leaving us uncertain on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-28 Yonghong Li , Xiuzhuang Zhou

We present Entropy Adaptive Decoding (EAD), a novel approach for efficient language model inference that dynamically switches between different-sized models based on prediction uncertainty. By monitoring rolling entropy in model logit…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-12 Toby Simonds
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