Related papers: A Bayesian framework for opinion dynamics models
We study a model for continuous-opinion dynamics under bounded confidence. In particular, we analyze the importance of the initial distribution of opinions in determining the asymptotic configuration. Thus, we sketch the structure of…
Much is now known about the consistency of Bayesian updating on infinite-dimensional parameter spaces with independent or Markovian data. Necessary conditions for consistency include the prior putting enough weight on the correct…
We propose the multidimensional social compass model, based on two competing key ingredients: DeGroot learning, driven by the social influence exerted across multiple topics, and the preference of individuals to maintain their initial…
We propose new Degroot-type social learning models with feedback in a continuous time, to investigate the effect of a noisy information source on consensus formation in a social network. Unlike the standard Degroot framework, noisy…
This paper proposes a theory of stock market predictability patterns based on a model of heterogeneous beliefs. In a discrete finite time framework, some agents receive news about an asset's fundamental value through a noisy signal. The…
We introduce a distributed, cooperative framework and method for Bayesian estimation and control in decentralized agent networks. Our framework combines joint estimation of time-varying global and local states with information-seeking…
In the model for continuous opinion dynamics introduced by Hegselmann and Krause, each individual moves to the average opinion of all individuals within an area of confidence. In this work we study the effects of noise in this system. With…
This article contributes in four ways to the research on time-discrete continuous opinion dynamics with compromising agents. First, communication regimes are introduced as an elementary concept of opinion dynamic models. Second, we develop…
Prediction is a central task of statistics and machine learning, yet many inferential settings provide only partial information, typically in the form of moment constraints or estimating equations. We develop a finite, fully Bayesian…
We propose a framework for probability aggregation based on propositional probability logic. Unlike conventional judgment aggregation, which focuses on static rationality, our model addresses dynamic rationality by ensuring that collective…
We develop a hierarchical Bayesian dynamic game for competitive inventory and pricing under incomplete information. Two firms repeatedly choose order quantities and prices while facing two layers of uncertainty: unknown market demand and…
Models of the convergence of opinion in social systems have been the subject of a considerable amount of recent attention in the physics literature. These models divide into two classes, those in which individuals form their beliefs based…
We study an endogenous opinion (or, belief) dynamics model where we endogenize the social network that models the link (`trust') weights between agents. Our network adjustment mechanism is simple: an agent increases her weight for another…
Mathematical models of cognition are often memoryless and ignore potential fluctuations of their parameters. However, human cognition is inherently dynamic. Thus, we propose to augment mechanistic cognitive models with a temporal dimension…
The effects of interpersonal interactions on individual's agreements result in a social aggregation process which is reflected in the formation of collective states, as for instance, groups of individuals with a similar opinion about a…
Many models have been proposed to analyze the evolution of opinion structure due to the interaction of individuals in their social environment. Such models analyze the spreading of ideas both in completely interacting backgrounds and on…
Experiments on decision making under uncertainty are known to display a classical pattern of risk aversion and risk seeking referred to as "fourfold pattern" (or "reflection effect") , but recent experiments varying the speed and order of…
Perceptual judgments of sequential stimuli are systematically biased by prior expectations and by the temporal structure of sensory input. In haptic discrimination tasks, these effects often manifest as time-order asymmetries, whereby the…
Public discourse and opinions stem from multiple social groups. Each group has beliefs about a topic (such as vaccination, abortion, gay marriage, etc.), and opinions are exchanged and blended to produce consensus. A particular measure of…
Opinion dynamics of a group of individuals is the change in the members' opinions through mutual interaction with each other. The related literature contains works in which the dynamics is modeled as a continuous system, of which behavioral…