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Over the past few decades, statistical methods for causal inference have made impressive strides, enabling progress across a range of scientific fields. However, much of this methodological development has been confined to individual…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-30 Wenqi Shi , José R. Zubizarreta

The growing integration of machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) models into high-stakes domains such as healthcare and scientific research calls for models that are not only accurate but also interpretable. Among the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-23 Zhuo Cao , Xuan Zhao , Lena Krieger , Hanno Scharr , Ira Assent

Going beyond correlations, the understanding and identification of causal relationships in observational time series, an important subfield of Causal Discovery, poses a major challenge. The lack of access to a well-defined ground truth for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-04-19 Andrew R. Lawrence , Marcus Kaiser , Rui Sampaio , Maksim Sipos

Estimation of treatment efficacy of real-world clinical interventions involves working with continuous outcomes such as time-to-death, re-hospitalization, or a composite event that may be subject to censoring. Counterfactual reasoning in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-08-11 Chirag Nagpal , Mononito Goswami , Keith Dufendach , Artur Dubrawski

Latent variable models are popularly used to measure latent factors (e.g., abilities and personalities) from large-scale assessment data. Beyond understanding these latent factors, the covariate effect on responses controlling for latent…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-12 Jing Ouyang , Chengyu Cui , Kean Ming Tan , Gongjun Xu

The proximal causal inference framework enables the identification and estimation of causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding by leveraging two disjoint sets of observed strong proxies: negative control treatments and…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-16 Antonio Olivas-Martinez , Peter B. Gilbert , Andrea Rotnitzky

The popularity of deep learning methods in the time series domain boosts interest in interpretability studies, including counterfactual (CF) methods. CF methods identify minimal changes in instances to alter the model predictions. Despite…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-11 Ziwen Kan , Shahbaz Rezaei , Xin Liu

Objective: A person's affective state has known relationships to physiological processes which can be measured by wearable sensors. However, while there are general trends those relationships can be person-specific. This work proposes using…

Applications · Statistics 2020-02-12 Callum L. Stewart , Amos Folarin , Richard Dobson

Deriving personalized insights from popular wearable trackers requires complex numerical reasoning that challenges standard LLMs, necessitating tool-based approaches like code generation. Large language model (LLM) agents present a…

Counterfactual explanations can be obtained by identifying the smallest change made to a feature vector to qualitatively influence a prediction; for example, from 'loan rejected' to 'awarded' or from 'high risk of cardiovascular disease' to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-05-05 Martin Pawelczyk , Johannes Haug , Klaus Broelemann , Gjergji Kasneci

Accurately quantifying uncertainty of individual treatment effects (ITEs) across multiple decision points is crucial for personalized decision-making in fields such as healthcare, finance, education, and online marketplaces. Previous work…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-10 Swaraj Bose , Walter Dempsey

Recommender systems are used in many different applications and contexts, however their main goal can always be summarised as "connecting relevant content to interested users". Personalized recommendation algorithms achieve this goal by…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2022-07-11 Joey De Pauw , Koen Ruymbeek , Bart Goethals

Convenient access to observational data enables us to learn causal effects without randomized experiments. This research direction draws increasing attention in research areas such as economics, healthcare, and education. For example, we…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2019-12-03 Ruocheng Guo , Jundong Li , Huan Liu

Human decision making can be challenging to predict because decisions are affected by a number of complex factors. Adding to this complexity, decision-making processes can differ considerably between individuals, and methods aimed at…

Wearable foundation models (WFMs), trained on large volumes of data collected by affordable, always-on devices, have demonstrated strong performance on short-term, well-defined health monitoring tasks, including activity recognition,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-23 Yu Yvonne Wu , Yuwei Zhang , Hyungjun Yoon , Ting Dang , Dimitris Spathis , Tong Xia , Qiang Yang , Jing Han , Dong Ma , Sung-Ju Lee , Cecilia Mascolo

Smart assistants increasingly act proactively, yet mistimed or intrusive behavior often causes users to lose trust and disable these features. Learning user preferences for proactive assistance is difficult because real-world studies are…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2026-02-05 Ziyi Xuan , Yiwen Wu , Zhaoyang Yan , Vinod Namboodiri , Yu Yang

Counterfactual explanations play a pivotal role in explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) by offering intuitive, human-understandable alternatives that elucidate machine learning model decisions. Despite their significance, existing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-06 Oleksii Furman , Ulvi Movsum-zada , Patryk Marszalek , Maciej Zięba , Marek Śmieja

We present BootComp, a novel framework based on text-to-image diffusion models for controllable human image generation with multiple reference garments. Here, the main bottleneck is data acquisition for training: collecting a large-scale…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-04-02 Yisol Choi , Sangkyung Kwak , Sihyun Yu , Hyungwon Choi , Jinwoo Shin

Counterfactual prediction is about predicting outcome of the unobserved situation from the data. For example, given patient is on drug A, what would be the outcome if she switch to drug B. Most of existing works focus on modeling…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-29 Yanbo Xu , Cao Xiao , Jimeng Sun

Real-world time series often exhibit complex interdependencies that cannot be captured in isolation. Global models that model past data from multiple related time series globally while producing series-specific forecasts locally are now…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-14 Abishek Sriramulu , Christoph Bergmeir , Slawek Smyl
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