Related papers: Bayesian Double Machine Learning for Causal Infere…
Two of the principle tasks of causal inference are to define and estimate the effect of a treatment on an outcome of interest. Formally, such treatment effects are defined as a possibly functional summary of the data generating…
Inference for doubly intractable distributions is challenging because the intractable normalizing functions of these models include parameters of interest. Previous auxiliary variable MCMC algorithms are infeasible for multi-dimensional…
Prompt learning has emerged as an effective technique for fine-tuning large-scale foundation models for downstream tasks. However, conventional prompt learning methods are prone to overfitting and can struggle with out-of-distribution…
Modern deep learning models generalize remarkably well in-distribution, despite being overparametrized and trained with little to no explicit regularization. Instead, current theory credits implicit regularization imposed by the choice of…
We study Bayesian approaches to causal inference via propensity score regression. Much of the Bayesian literature on propensity score methods have relied on approaches that cannot be viewed as fully Bayesian in the context of conventional…
Current causal discovery approaches require restrictive model assumptions in the absence of interventional data to ensure structure identifiability. These assumptions often do not hold in real-world applications leading to a loss of…
There is a growing interest in the so-called Bayesian Predictive Inference approach, which allows to perform Bayesian inference without specifying the likelihood and prior of the model, or the need of any MCMC. Instead, only a sequence of…
We present a novel approach for constrained Bayesian inference. Unlike current methods, our approach does not require convexity of the constraint set. We reduce the constrained variational inference to a parametric optimization over the…
Given a supervised machine learning problem where the training set has been subject to a known sampling bias, how can a model be trained to fit the original dataset? We achieve this through the Bayesian inference framework by altering the…
The use of genetic variants as instrumental variables - an approach known as Mendelian randomization - is a popular epidemiological method for estimating the causal effect of an exposure (phenotype, biomarker, risk factor) on a disease or…
Multilevel models (MLMs) are a central building block of the Bayesian workflow. They enable joint, interpretable modeling of data across hierarchical levels and provide a fully probabilistic quantification of uncertainty. Despite their…
For dynamic borrowing to leverage external data to augment the control arm of small RCTs, the key step is determining the amount of borrowing based on the similarity of the outcomes in the controls from the trial and the external data…
Mendelian randomization (MR) is widely used to uncover causal relationships in the presence of unmeasured confounders. However, most existing MR methods presuppose linear causality, risking bias when the true relationships are nonlinear,…
Parametric Bayesian modeling offers a powerful and flexible toolbox for machine learning. Yet the model, however detailed, may still be wrong, and this can make inferences untrustworthy. In this paper we introduce a new class of…
A fully Bayesian approach is proposed for ultrahigh-dimensional nonparametric additive models in which the number of additive components may be larger than the sample size, though ideally the true model is believed to include only a small…
Boolean matrix factorisation aims to decompose a binary data matrix into an approximate Boolean product of two low rank, binary matrices: one containing meaningful patterns, the other quantifying how the observations can be expressed as a…
We propose a novel approach to perform approximate Bayesian inference in complex models such as Bayesian neural networks. The approach is more scalable to large data than Markov Chain Monte Carlo, it embraces more expressive models than…
Current methods for regularization in machine learning require quite specific model assumptions (e.g. a kernel shape) that are not derived from prior knowledge about the application, but must be imposed merely to make the method work. We…
Bayesian reinforcement learning (BRL) offers a decision-theoretic solution for reinforcement learning. While "model-based" BRL algorithms have focused either on maintaining a posterior distribution on models or value functions and combining…
We propose a Bayesian nonparametric (BNP) approach to causal inference using observational data consisting of outcome, treatment, and a set of confounders. The conditional distribution of the outcome given treatment and confounders is…