Related papers: Bayesian Double Machine Learning for Causal Infere…

We pursue tractable Bayesian analysis of generalized linear models (GLMs) for categorical data. Thus far, GLMs are difficult to scale to more than a few dozen categories due to non-conjugacy or strong posterior dependencies when using…

This paper aims to build a probabilistic framework for Howard's policy iteration algorithm using the language of forward-backward stochastic differential equations (FBSDEs). As opposed to conventional formulations based on partial…

It is argued that the Calibrated Bayesian (CB) approach to statistical inference capitalizes on the strength of Bayesian and frequentist approaches to statistical inference. In the CB approach, inferences under a particular model are…

Nonlinearity and endogeneity are prevalent challenges in causal analysis using observational data. This paper proposes an inference procedure for a nonlinear and endogenous marginal effect function, defined as the derivative of the…

Machine-learning (ML) methods now routinely generate regressors used in subsequent econometric analyses, for example, estimated propensity scores, control-function residuals, imputed covariates, learned proxies, or low-dimensional…

Multilevel network meta-regression (ML-NMR) enables population-adjusted indirect treatment comparisons by combining individual patient data (IPD) with aggregate data. When individual-level covariates are unavailable, ML-NMR marginalizes…

Mendelian randomization (MR) has become an essential tool for causal inference in biomedical and public health research. By using genetic variants as instrumental variables, MR helps address unmeasured confounding and reverse causation,…

This study extends the Bayesian nonparametric instrumental variable regression model to determine the structural effects of covariates on the conditional quantile of the response variable. The error distribution is nonparametrically…

Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) have recently regained a significant amount of attention in the deep learning community due to the development of scalable approximate Bayesian inference techniques. There are several advantages of using a…

Recent developments in statistical regression methodology shift away from pure mean regression towards distributional regression models. One important strand thereof is that of conditional transformation models (CTMs). CTMs infer the entire…

Inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) methods infer an agent's reward function using demonstrations of expert behavior. A Bayesian IRL approach models a distribution over candidate reward functions, capturing a degree of uncertainty in the…

Bayesian methods have proved powerful in many applications for the inference of model parameters from data. These methods are based on Bayes' theorem, which itself is deceptively simple. However, in practice the computations required are…

Current clinical decision support systems (CDSSs) typically base their predictions on correlation, not causation. In recent years, causal machine learning (ML) has emerged as a promising way to improve decision-making with CDSSs by offering…

A set of probabilistic predictions is well calibrated if the events that are predicted to occur with probability p do in fact occur about p fraction of the time. Well calibrated predictions are particularly important when machine learning…

Evidence accumulation models (EAMs) are an important class of cognitive models used to analyze both response time and response choice data recorded from decision-making tasks. Developments in estimation procedures have helped EAMs become…

Machine learning (ML) has emerged as a powerful tool for tackling complex regression and classification tasks, yet its success often hinges on the quality of training data. This study introduces an ML paradigm inspired by domain knowledge…

Supervised machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) algorithms excel at predictive tasks, but it is commonly assumed that they often do so by exploiting non-causal correlations, which may limit both interpretability and…

One of the major challenges in the Bayesian solution of inverse problems governed by partial differential equations (PDEs) is the computational cost of repeatedly evaluating numerical PDE models, as required by Markov chain Monte Carlo…

Inverse problems arise anywhere we have indirect measurement. As, in general they are ill-posed, to obtain satisfactory solutions for them needs prior knowledge. Classically, different regularization methods and Bayesian inference based…

Latent confounding has been a long-standing obstacle for causal reasoning from observational data. One popular approach is to model the data using acyclic directed mixed graphs (ADMGs), which describe ancestral relations between variables…