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The paper solves the problem of optimal portfolio choice when the parameters of the asset returns distribution, like the mean vector and the covariance matrix are unknown and have to be estimated by using historical data of the asset…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-04-19 David Bauder , Taras Bodnar , Nestor Parolya , Wolfgang Schmid

This paper investigates optimal portfolio strategies in a market where the drift is driven by an unobserved Markov chain. Information on the state of this chain is obtained from stock prices and expert opinions in the form of signals at…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2016-02-03 Rüdiger Frey , Abdelali Gabih , Ralf Wunderlich

Real-world autonomous systems operate under uncertainty about both their pose and dynamics. Autonomous control systems must simultaneously perform estimation and control tasks to maintain robustness to changing dynamics or modeling errors.…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2018-08-03 Patrick Slade , Zachary N. Sunberg , Mykel J. Kochenderfer

Several scenarios require the optimization of non-convex black-box functions, that are noisy expensive to evaluate functions with unknown analytical expression, whose gradients are hence not accessible. For example, the hyper-parameter…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-12 Eduardo C. Garrido-Merchán

We study the problem of optimal portfolio selection under stochastic volatility within a continuous time reinforcement learning framework with portfolio constraints. Exploration is modeled through entropy-regularized relaxed controls, where…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2026-04-27 Thai Nguyen , Pertiny Nkuize

Model selection is treated as a standard performance boosting step in many machine learning applications. Once all other properties of a learning problem are fixed, the model is selected by grid search on a held-out validation set. This is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-06-28 Manuel Haussmann , Fred A. Hamprecht , Melih Kandemir

We study a discrete-time portfolio selection problem with partial information and maxi\-mum drawdown constraint. Drift uncertainty in the multidimensional framework is modeled by a prior probability distribution. In this Bayesian framework,…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2020-11-02 Carmine De Franco , Johann Nicolle , Huyên Pham

In this article, we analyse optimal statistical arbitrage strategies from stochastic control and optimisation problems for multiple co-integrated stocks with eigenportfolios being factors. Optimal portfolio weights are found by solving a…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2022-02-09 T. N. Li , A. Papanicolaou

Bayesian optimization with Gaussian processes has become an increasingly popular tool in the machine learning community. It is efficient and can be used when very little is known about the objective function, making it popular in expensive…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2011-03-08 Eric Brochu , Matthew W. Hoffman , Nando de Freitas

We consider the problem of chance constrained optimization where it is sought to optimize a function and satisfy constraints, both of which are affected by uncertainties. The real world declinations of this problem are particularly…

In this paper, we first conduct a study of the portfolio selection problem, incorporating both exogenous (proportional) and endogenous (resulting from liquidity risk, characterized by a stochastic process) transaction costs through the…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-09-03 Dong Yan , Nanyi Zhang , Junyi Guo

Portfolio optimization is a critical task in investment. Most existing portfolio optimization methods require information on the distribution of returns of the assets that make up the portfolio. However, such distribution information is…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-10-09 Masahiro Kato , Kentaro Baba , Hibiki Kaibuchi , Ryo Inokuchi

In this paper, optimal consumption and investment decisions are studied for an investor who can invest in a fixed interest rate bank account and a stock whose price is a log normal diffusion. We present the method of the HJB equation in…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2014-09-16 Jiacheng Feng

We consider stochastic optimization under distributional uncertainty, where the unknown distributional parameter is estimated from streaming data that arrive sequentially over time. Moreover, data may depend on the decision of the time when…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-10-17 Tianyi Liu , Yifan Lin , Enlu Zhou

We investigate a continuous-time investment-consumption problem with model uncertainty in a general diffusion-based market with random model coefficients. We assume that a power utility investor is ambiguity-averse, with the preference to…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2024-07-04 Len Patrick Dominic M. Garces , Yang Shen

Information theoretic active learning has been widely studied for probabilistic models. For simple regression an optimal myopic policy is easily tractable. However, for other tasks and with more complex models, such as classification with…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2011-12-30 Neil Houlsby , Ferenc Huszár , Zoubin Ghahramani , Máté Lengyel

Stochastic optimal control with unknown randomness distributions has been studied for a long time, encompassing robust control, distributionally robust control, and adaptive control. We propose a new episodic Bayesian approach that…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-06-02 Alexander Shapiro , Enlu Zhou , Yifan Lin , Yuhao Wang

We propose a novel, theoretically-grounded, acquisition function for Batch Bayesian optimization informed by insights from distributionally ambiguous optimization. Our acquisition function is a lower bound on the well-known Expected…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-04-17 Nikitas Rontsis , Michael A. Osborne , Paul J. Goulart

This paper presents several models addressing optimal portfolio choice, optimal portfolio liquidation, and optimal portfolio transition issues, in which the expected returns of risky assets are unknown. Our approach is based on a coupling…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2019-03-21 Alexis Bismuth , Olivier Guéant , Jiang Pu

Bayesian optimization (BO) is a sample-efficient approach to optimizing costly-to-evaluate black-box functions. Most BO methods ignore how evaluation costs may vary over the optimization domain. However, these costs can be highly…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-15 Raul Astudillo , Daniel R. Jiang , Maximilian Balandat , Eytan Bakshy , Peter I. Frazier