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A novel estimation approach for a general class of semi-parametric multivariate time series models is introduced where the conditional mean is modeled through parametric functions. The focus of the estimation is the conditional mean…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-21 Mirko Armillotta

Causal inference from observational data often assumes "ignorability," that all confounders are observed. This assumption is standard yet untestable. However, many scientific studies involve multiple causes, different variables whose…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-04-16 Yixin Wang , David M. Blei

Open-generation bias benchmarks evaluate social biases in Large Language Models (LLMs) by analyzing their outputs. However, the classifiers used in analysis often have inherent biases, leading to unfair conclusions. This study examines such…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-01-22 Nathaniel Demchak , Xin Guan , Zekun Wu , Ziyi Xu , Adriano Koshiyama , Emre Kazim

Background: Policy evaluation studies that assess how state-level policies affect health-related outcomes are foundational to health and social policy research. The relative ability of newer analytic methods to address confounding, a key…

Inference for high-dimensional logistic regression models using penalized methods has been a challenging research problem. As an illustration, a major difficulty is the significant bias of the Lasso estimator, which limits its direct…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-29 Yuming Zhang , Stéphane Guerrier , Runze Li

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown impressive potential to simulate human behavior. We identify a fundamental challenge in using them to simulate experiments: when LLM-simulated subjects are blind to the experimental design (as is…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-11-25 George Gui , Olivier Toubia

This paper studies the high-dimensional mixed linear regression (MLR) where the output variable comes from one of the two linear regression models with an unknown mixing proportion and an unknown covariance structure of the random…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-11-10 Linjun Zhang , Rong Ma , T. Tony Cai , Hongzhe Li

No unmeasured confounding is a common assumption when reasoning about counterfactual outcomes, but such an assumption may not be plausible in observational studies. Sensitivity analysis is often employed to assess the robustness of causal…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-20 Abhinandan Dalal , Eric J. Tchetgen Tchetgen

Hidden confounding remains a central challenge in estimating treatment effects from observational data, as unobserved variables can lead to biased causal estimates. While recent work has explored the use of large language models (LLMs) for…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-07-08 Hao Yang , Haoxuan Li , Luyu Chen , Haoxiang Wang , Xu Chen , Mingming Gong

We study the problem of estimating causal effects under hidden confounding in the following unpaired data setting: we observe some covariates $X$ and an outcome $Y$ under different experimental conditions (environments) but do not observe…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-01-22 Felix Schur , Niklas Pfister , Peng Ding , Sach Mukherjee , Jonas Peters

Granger causality analysis, as one of the most popular time series causality methods, has been widely used in the economics, neuroscience. However, unobserved confounders is a fundamental problem in the observational studies, which is still…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-09-10 Yuan Meng

In some causal inference scenarios, the treatment variable is measured inaccurately, for instance in epidemiology or econometrics. Failure to correct for the effect of this measurement error can lead to biased causal effect estimates.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-09-13 Antti Pöllänen , Pekka Marttinen

We consider the problem of testing for differences in group-specific slopes between the selected groups in panel data identified via k-means clustering. In this setting, the classical Wald-type test statistic is problematic because it…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-07 Chuang Wan , Jiajun Sun , Xingbai Xu

The principal stratification has become a popular tool to address a broad class of causal inference questions, particularly in dealing with non-compliance and truncation-by-death problems. The causal effects within principal strata which…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-20 Shanshan Luo , Wei Li , Wang Miao , Yangbo He

Causal representation learning aims to unveil latent high-level causal representations from observed low-level data. One of its primary tasks is to provide reliable assurance of identifying these latent causal models, known as…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-02 Yuhang Liu , Zhen Zhang , Dong Gong , Mingming Gong , Biwei Huang , Anton van den Hengel , Kun Zhang , Javen Qinfeng Shi

Recovering the structure of causal graphical models from observational data is an essential yet challenging task for causal discovery in scientific scenarios. Domain-specific causal discovery usually relies on expert validation or prior…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-08-27 Taiyu Ban , Lyuzhou Chen , Derui Lyu , Xiangyu Wang , Qinrui Zhu , Qiang Tu , Huanhuan Chen

We study causal discovery from observational data in linear Gaussian systems affected by \emph{mixed latent confounding}, where some unobserved factors act broadly across many variables while others influence only small subsets. This…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-01 Amir Asiaee , Samhita Pal , James O'quinn , James P. Long

In the presence of confounding between an endogenous variable and the outcome, instrumental variables (IVs) are used to isolate the causal effect of the endogenous variable. Identifying valid instruments requires interdisciplinary…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-04-07 Ivaxi Sheth , Zhijing Jin , Bryan Wilder , Dominik Janzing , Mario Fritz

Endogeneity and missing data are common issues in empirical research. We investigate how both jointly affect inference on causal parameters. Conventional methods to estimate the variance, which treat the imputed data as if it was observed…

Econometrics · Economics 2019-03-27 Helmut Farbmacher , Alexander Kann

Observational studies are the primary source of data for causal inference, but it is challenging when existing unmeasured confounding. Missing data problems are also common in observational studies. How to obtain the causal effects from the…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-05-15 Renzhong Zheng