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When constructing a model to estimate the causal effect of a treatment, it is necessary to control for other factors which may have confounding effects. Because the ignorability assumption is not testable, however, it is usually unclear…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-09-07 Spencer Woody , Carlos M. Carvalho , Jared S. Murray

We revisit panel regressions with unobserved heterogeneity through the lens of variance-weighted average treatment effects. Building on established results for cross-sectional OLS and one-way fixed effects panels, we show that two-way panel…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-04-21 Artūras Juodis , Martin Weidner

Causal discovery in the presence of unobserved common causes from observational data only is a crucial but challenging problem. We categorize all possible causal relationships between two random variables into the following four categories…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-03-12 Masatoshi Kobayashi , Kohei Miyagichi , Shin Matsushima

The identification of causal effects in observational studies typically relies on two standard assumptions: unconfoundedness and overlap. However, both assumptions are often questionable in practice: unconfoundedness is inherently…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-17 Han Cui , Xinran Li

This paper considers linear panel data models where the dependence of the regressors and the unobservables is modelled through a factor structure. The asymptotic setting is such that the number of time periods and the sample size both go to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-11-25 Jad Beyhum , Eric Gautier

Randomized controlled trials are the gold standard for measuring causal effects. However, they are often not always feasible, and causal treatment effects must be estimated from observational data. Observational studies do not allow robust…

Identifying causal treatment (or exposure) effects in observational studies requires the data to satisfy the unconfoundedness assumption which is not testable using the observed data. With sensitivity analysis, one can determine how the…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-01-31 Yang Ou , Lu Tang , Chung-Chou H. Chang

The presence of units with extreme values in the dependent and/or independent variables (i.e., vertical outliers, leveraged data) has the potential to severely bias regression coefficients and/or standard errors. This is common with short…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-12-12 Annalivia Polselli

Causal inference with observational studies often suffers from unmeasured confounding, yielding biased estimators based on the unconfoundedness assumption. Sensitivity analysis assesses how the causal conclusions change with respect to…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-01 Sizhu Lu , Peng Ding

We consider the problem of computing bounds for causal queries on causal graphs with unobserved confounders and discrete valued observed variables, where identifiability does not hold. Existing non-parametric approaches for computing such…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-08 Madhumitha Shridharan , Garud Iyengar

Large language models are being widely used across industries to generate content that contributes directly to key performance metrics, such as conversion rates. Pretrained models, however, often fall short when it comes to aligning with…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-03 Erfan Loghmani

With reference to a binary outcome and a binary mediator, we derive identification bounds for natural effects under a reduced set of assumptions. Specifically, no assumptions about confounding are made that involve the outcome; we only…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-03 Marco Doretti , Elena Stanghellini

Estimating causal effects from observational data is not always possible due to confounding. Identifying a set of appropriate covariates (adjustment set) and adjusting for their influence can remove confounding bias; however, such a set is…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-11-19 Sofia Triantafillou , Gregory Cooper

Causal inference has been increasingly reliant on observational studies with rich covariate information. To build tractable causal procedures, such as the doubly robust estimators, it is imperative to first extract important features from…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-02-08 Dingke Tang , Dehan Kong , Wenliang Pan , Linbo Wang

Studies in environmental and epidemiological sciences are often spatially varying and observational in nature with the aim of establishing cause and effect relationships. One of the major challenges with such studies is the presence of…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-05-16 Sayli Pokal , Yawen Guan , Honglang Wang , Yuzhen Zhou

Unlike parametric regression, machine learning (ML) methods do not generally require precise knowledge of the true data generating mechanisms. As such, numerous authors have advocated for ML methods to estimate causal effects.…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-05-15 Ashley I Naimi , Alan E Mishler , Edward H Kennedy

Discovering the complete set of causal relations among a group of variables is a challenging unsupervised learning problem. Often, this challenge is compounded by the fact that there are latent or hidden confounders. When only observational…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-01-19 Anqi Liu , Hao Liu , Tongxin Li , Saeed Karimi-Bidhendi , Yisong Yue , Anima Anandkumar

Time series forecasting is a critical task in various domains, where accurate predictions can drive informed decision-making. Traditional forecasting methods often rely on current observations of variables to predict future outcomes,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-17 Wentao Gao , Xiaojing Du , Wenjun Yu , Xiongren Chen , Yifan Guo , Feiyu Yang

In causal inference, sensitivity models assess how unmeasured confounders could alter causal analyses, but the sensitivity parameter -- which quantifies the degree of unmeasured confounding -- is often difficult to interpret. For this…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-04 Alec McClean , Zach Branson , Edward H. Kennedy

Causal inference from observational data requires assumptions. These assumptions range from measuring confounders to identifying instruments. Traditionally, causal inference assumptions have focused on estimation of effects for a single…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-03-04 Rajesh Ranganath , Adler Perotte
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