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Conformal Prediction (CP) serves as a robust framework that quantifies uncertainty in predictions made by Machine Learning (ML) models. Unlike traditional point predictors, CP generates statistically valid prediction regions, also known as…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-29 A. A. Balinsky , A. D. Balinsky

Conformal prediction (CP) is a wrapper around traditional machine learning models, giving coverage guarantees under the sole assumption of exchangeability; in classification problems, for a chosen significance level $\varepsilon$, CP…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-23 Javier Abad , Umang Bhatt , Adrian Weller , Giovanni Cherubin

Large Language Models (LLMs) increasingly rely on multi-turn reasoning and interaction, such as adaptive retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) and ReAct-style agents, to answer difficult questions. These methods improve accuracy by…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-04-07 Xiaofan Zhou , Huy Nguyen , Bo Yu , Chenxi Liu , Lu Cheng

Conformal prediction (CP) offers distribution-free uncertainty quantification for machine learning models, yet its interplay with fairness in downstream decision-making remains underexplored. Moving beyond CP as a standalone operation…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-20 Pengqi Liu , Zijun Yu , Mouloud Belbahri , Arthur Charpentier , Masoud Asgharian , Jesse C. Cresswell

Hallucination, or the generation of incorrect or fabricated information, remains a critical challenge in large language models (LLMs), particularly in high-stake domains such as legal question answering (QA). In order to mitigate the…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-01-14 Yinghao Hu , Leilei Gan , Wenyi Xiao , Kun Kuang , Fei Wu

While Large Language Models (LLMs) have emerged as powerful foundational models to solve a variety of tasks, they have also been shown to be prone to hallucinations, i.e., generating responses that sound confident but are actually incorrect…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-04-29 Jiawei Li , Akshayaa Magesh , Venugopal V. Veeravalli

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown significant advances in text generation but often lack the reliability needed for autonomous deployment in high-stakes domains like healthcare, law, and finance. Existing approaches rely on external…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-11-12 Ninad Naik

Conformal prediction (CP) is a powerful statistical framework that generates prediction intervals or sets with guaranteed coverage probability. While CP algorithms have evolved beyond traditional classifiers and regressors to sophisticated…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-02 Jianguo Huang , Jianqing Song , Xuanning Zhou , Bingyi Jing , Hongxin Wei

Signal Temporal Logic (STL) inference seeks to extract human-interpretable rules from time-series data, but existing methods lack formal confidence guarantees for the inferred rules. Conformal prediction (CP) is a technique that can provide…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-23 Danyang Li , Yixuan Wang , Matthew Cleaveland , Mingyu Cai , Roberto Tron

Conformal prediction (CP) gives distribution-free coverage for modern vision and language models, but it is often forced to make a ranking decision from a single unstable nonconformity score. Standard CP uses one realization, while…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-25 Jiapeng Zeng , Yogesh Prabhu , Zhanpeng Zeng , Michael A. Newton , Vikas Singh

In this paper, we focus on the problem of conformal prediction with conditional guarantees. Prior work has shown that it is impossible to construct nontrivial prediction sets with full conditional coverage guarantees. A wealth of research…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-29 Shayan Kiyani , George Pappas , Hamed Hassani

Large language models (LLMs) need reliable test-time control of hallucinations. Existing conformal methods for LLMs typically provide only \emph{marginal} guarantees and rely on a single global threshold, which can under-cover hard prompts,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-31 Kai Ye , Qingtao Pan , Shuo Li

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated strong mathematical reasoning capabilities but remain susceptible to hallucinations producing plausible yet incorrect statements especially in theorem proving, symbolic manipulation, and…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-06-23 MingShan Liu , Jialing Fang

Large language models (LLMs) can be prone to hallucinations - generating unreliable outputs that are unfaithful to their inputs, external facts or internally inconsistent. In this work, we address several challenges for post-hoc…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-08-12 Simon Valentin , Jinmiao Fu , Gianluca Detommaso , Shaoyuan Xu , Giovanni Zappella , Bryan Wang

In this work, we consider the problem of building distribution-free prediction intervals with finite-sample conditional coverage guarantees. Conformal prediction (CP) is an increasingly popular framework for building such intervals with…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-29 Rohan Hore , Rina Foygel Barber

Conditional validity and length efficiency are two crucial aspects of conformal prediction (CP). Conditional validity ensures accurate uncertainty quantification for data subpopulations, while proper length efficiency ensures that the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-12-12 Shayan Kiyani , George Pappas , Hamed Hassani

Conformal prediction (CP) is an emerging uncertainty quantification framework that allows us to construct a prediction set to cover the true label with a pre-specified marginal or conditional probability. Although the valid coverage…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-09 Yuanjie Shi , Subhankar Ghosh , Taha Belkhouja , Janardhan Rao Doppa , Yan Yan

Conformal prediction (CP) is a framework to quantify uncertainty of machine learning classifiers including deep neural networks. Given a testing example and a trained classifier, CP produces a prediction set of candidate labels with a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-01 Subhankar Ghosh , Yuanjie Shi , Taha Belkhouja , Yan Yan , Jana Doppa , Brian Jones

Hallucinations in large language models (LLMs) present a growing challenge across real-world applications, from healthcare to law, where factual reliability is essential. Despite advances in alignment and instruction tuning, LLMs can still…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-05-02 Makoto Sato

Large language models (LLMs) are promising tools for supporting security management tasks, such as incident response planning. However, their unreliability and tendency to hallucinate remain significant challenges. In this paper, we address…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-02-06 Kim Hammar , Tansu Alpcan , Emil Lupu