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Energy system models for long-term planning are widely used to explore the future electricity system. Typically, to represent the future electricity demand in these models, historical demand profiles are used directly or scaled up linearly.…

Popular Physics · Physics 2021-10-14 Xiaoming Kan , Lina Reichenberg , Fredrik Hedenus

CO$_2$ emission reduction and increasing volatile renewable energy generation mandate stronger energy sector coupling and the use of energy storage. In such multi-modal energy systems, it is challenging to determine the effect of an…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-10-30 Christopher Ripp , Florian Steinke

Cost optimal scenarios derived from models of a highly renewable electricity system depend on the specific input data, cost assumptions and system constraints. Here this influence is studied using a techno-economic optimisation model for a…

Physics and Society · Physics 2018-08-21 David P. Schlachtberger , Tom Brown , Mirko Schäfer , Stefan Schramm , Martin Greiner

We introduce a framework for developing efficient and interpretable climate emulators (CEs) for economic models of climate change. The paper makes two main contributions. First, we propose a general framework for constructing carbon-cycle…

Energy system models are increasingly being used to explore scenarios with large shares of variable renewables. This requires input data of high spatial and temporal resolution and places a considerable preprocessing burden on the modeling…

Physics and Society · Physics 2020-03-04 Niclas Mattsson , Vilhelm Verendel , Fredrik Hedenus , Lina Reichenberg

We develop an open-source Python software integrating flexibility needs from Variable Renewable Energies (VREs) in the development of regional energy mixes. It provides a flexible and extensible tool to researchers/engineers, and for…

Future greenhouse gas neutral energy systems will be dominated by renewable energy technologies providing variable supply subject to uncertain weather conditions. For this setting, we propose an algorithm for capacity expansion planning: We…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-03-02 Sebastian Kebrich , Felix Engelhardt , David Franzmann , Christina Büsing , Jochen Linßen , Heidi Heinrichs

Climate change is one of the 21st centurys major challenges. However, the progress in reducing greenhouse gas emissions is perceived as being too slow. Hence, more radical technologies such as stratospheric aerosol injection are entering…

Computational Physics · Physics 2025-11-18 Sebastian Kebrich , Luisa Kamp , Jochen Linßen , Heidi Heinrichs

Security of supply is a common and important concern when integrating renewables in net-zero power systems. Extreme weather affects both demand and supply leading to power system stress; in Europe this stress spreads continentally beyond…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-08-08 Aleksander Grochowicz , Hannah C. Bloomfield , Marta Victoria

Determining changes in global temperature and precipitation that may indicate climate change is complicated by annual variations. One approach for finding potential climate change indicators is to train a model that predicts the year from…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2022-12-09 Charles Anderson , Jason Stock

We use an open, hourly-resolved, networked model of the European energy system to investigate the storage requirements under decreasing CO$_2$ emissions targets and several sector-coupling scenarios. For the power system, significant…

Physics and Society · Physics 2019-11-22 Marta Victoria , Kun Zhu , Tom Brown , Gorm B. Andresen , Martin Greiner

The transition to net-zero emissions in Europe is determined by a patchwork of country-level and EU-wide policy, creating coordination challenges in an interconnected system. We use an optimisation model to map out near-optimal energy…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-04-30 Koen van Greevenbroek , Aleksander Grochowicz , Marianne Zeyringer , Fred Espen Benth

Internal climate variability arises from the climate system's inherently chaotic dynamics. Quantifying it is essential for climate science, as it enables risk-based decision-making and differentiates between externally forced change and…

The deployment of CO2 capture and storage (CCS) and negative emissions technologies (NETs) are crucial to meet the net-zero target by year 2050, as emphasised by the Glasgow Climate Pact. Over the years, several energy planning models have…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-12-19 Purusothmn Nair S. Bhasker Nair , Raymond R. Tan , Dominic C. Y. Foo , Disni Gamaralalage , Michael Short

In the evolving power system, where new renewable resources continually displace conventional generation, conventional hydropower resources can be an important asset that helps to maintain reliability and flexibility. Varying climatic…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-11-07 Bhaskar Mitra , Sohom Datta , Slaven Kincic , Nader Samaan , Abhishek Somani

In the process of decarbonization, the global energy mix is shifting from fossil fuels to renewables. To study decarbonization pathways, large-scale energy system models are utilized. These models require accurate data on renewable…

Physics and Society · Physics 2021-01-22 Alexander Kies , Bruno U. Schyska , Mariia Bilousova , Omar El Sayed , Jakub Jurasz , Horst Stöcker

Several research studies have shown that future sustainable electricity systems, mostly based on renewable generation and storage, are feasible with current technologies and costs. However, recent episodes of extreme weather conditions,…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-09-26 Francisco Gutierrez-Garcia , Angel Arcos-Vargas , Antonio Gomez-Exposito

Climate projections continue to be marred by large uncertainties, which originate in processes that need to be parameterized, such as clouds, convection, and ecosystems. But rapid progress is now within reach. New computational tools and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-02-14 Tapio Schneider , Shiwei Lan , Andrew Stuart , João Teixeira

Accurately quantifying the increased risks of climate extremes requires generating large ensembles of climate realization across a wide range of emissions scenarios, which is computationally challenging for conventional Earth System Models.…

Computational Physics · Physics 2025-08-22 Mengze Wang , Benedikt Barthel Sorensen , Themistoklis Sapsis

Using a recently developed formalism, we present an in-depth analysis of how the thermodynamics of the climate system varies with CO2 concentration by performing experiments with a simplified yet Earth-like climate model. We find that, in…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2020-11-04 V. Lucarini , K. Fraedrich , F. Lunkeit