Related papers: Climate2Energy: a framework to consistently includ…
We develop a three-timescale framework for modelling climate change and introduce a space-heterogeneous one-dimensional energy balance model. This model, addressing temperature fluctuations from rising carbon dioxide levels and the…
Accurately quantifying uncertainty in predictions and projections arising from irreducible internal climate variability is critical for informed decision making. Such uncertainty is typically assessed using ensembles produced with physics…
This paper explores the impacts of decarbonisation of heat on demand and subsequently on the generation capacity required to secure against system adequacy standards. Gas demand is explored as a proxy variable for modelling the…
The sensitivity of climate models to increasing CO2 concentration and the climate response at decadal time scales are still major factors of uncertainty for the assessment of the long and short term effects of anthropogenic climate change.…
Growth of intermittent renewable energy and climate change make it increasingly difficult to manage electricity demand variability. Centralized storage can help but is costly. An alternative is to shift demand. Cooling and heating demands…
We develop a unified statistical framework for attributing heatwaves as spatio-temporal phenomena under climate change. We quantify the impact of anthropogenic forcing on the probability and persistence of heatwaves not captured by standard…
Energy system models require a large amount of technical and economic data, the quality of which significantly influences the reliability of the results. Some of the variables on the important data source ENTSO-E transparency platform, such…
The high temporal variability of wind power generation represents a major challenge for the realization of a sustainable energy supply. Large backup and storage facilities are necessary to secure the supply in periods of low renewable…
One of the most used metrics to gauge the effects of climate change is the equilibrium climate sensitivity, defined as the long-term (equilibrium) temperature increase resulting from instantaneous doubling of atmospheric CO$_2$. Since…
One of the primal challenges faced by utility companies is ensuring efficient supply with minimal greenhouse gas emissions. The advent of smart meters and smart grids provide an unprecedented advantage in realizing an optimised supply of…
The climate system is a forced, dissipative, nonlinear, complex and heterogeneous system that is out of thermodynamic equilibrium. The system exhibits natural variability on many scales of motion, in time as well as space, and it is subject…
The current climate change is calling for drastic reduction of energy demand as well as of greenhouse gases. Besides this, cities also need to adapt to face the challenges related to climate change. Cities, with their complex urban texture…
This paper introduces a Bayesian hierarchical modeling framework within a fully probabilistic setting for crop yield estimation, model selection, and uncertainty forecasting under multiple future greenhouse gas emission scenarios. By…
Observed changes such as increasing global temperatures and the intensification of the global water cycle in the 20th century are also robust results of coupled general circulation models. In spite of this success model-to-model variability…
In highly renewable power systems the increased weather dependence can result in new resilience challenges, such as renewable energy droughts, or a lack of sufficient renewable generation at times of high demand. The weather conditions…
Despite the coupled nature of water and electricity demand, the two utilities are often managed by different entities with minimal interaction. Neglecting the water-energy demand nexus leads to to suboptimal management decisions,…
The ambitious energy target to achieve climate-neutrality in the European Union (EU) energy system raises the feasibility question of using only renewables across all energy sectors. As one of the EU's leading industrialized countries,…
This work focuses on the end-to-end forecast of global extreme marine heatwaves (MHWs), which are unusually warm sea surface temperature events with profound impacts on marine ecosystems. Accurate prediction of extreme MHWs has significant…
The decarbonisation of heat in developed economies represents a significant challenge, with increased penetration of electrical heating technologies potentially leading to unprecedented increases in peak electricity demand. This work…
Global Climate Models are key tools for predicting the future response of the climate system to a variety of natural and anthropogenic forcings. Here we show how to use statistical mechanics to construct operators able to flexibly predict…