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A key condition for obtaining reliable estimates of the causal effect of a treatment is overlap (a.k.a. positivity): the distributions of the features used to perform causal adjustment cannot be too different in the treated and control…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-04-14 Alexander D'Amour , Alexander Franks

Estimating causal effects from high-dimensional, structured exposures is a fundamental challenge in modern applications ranging from neuroscience and finance to environmental science. While the literature has addressed high-dimensional…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-29 Samhita Pal , Dhrubajyoti Ghosh

Unraveling the co-expression of genes across studies enhances the understanding of cellular processes. Inferring gene co-expression networks from transcriptome data presents many challenges, including spurious gene correlations, sample…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-10-01 Teodora Pandeva , Martijs Jonker , Leendert Hamoen , Joris Mooij , Patrick Forré

Despite the widespread success of Graph Neural Networks (GNNs), understanding the reasons behind their specific predictions remains challenging. Existing explainability methods face a trade-off that gradient-based approaches are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-22 Bizu Feng , Zhimu Yang , Shaode Yu , Zixin Hu

Time-series forecasting increasingly demands not only accurate observational predictions but also causal forecasting under interventional and counterfactual queries in multivariate systems. We present DoFlow, a flow-based generative model…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-03 Dongze Wu , Feng Qiu , Yao Xie

Given an observational study with $n$ independent but heterogeneous units, our goal is to learn the counterfactual distribution for each unit using only one $p$-dimensional sample per unit containing covariates, interventions, and outcomes.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-18 Abhin Shah , Raaz Dwivedi , Devavrat Shah , Gregory W. Wornell

Selective inference (post-selection inference) is a methodology that has attracted much attention in recent years in the fields of statistics and machine learning. Naive inference based on data that are also used for model selection tends…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-11-25 Yoshiyuki Ninomiya , Yuta Umezu , Ichiro Takeuchi

In this paper, we propose a robust method to estimate the average treatment effects in observational studies when the number of potential confounders is possibly much greater than the sample size. We first use a class of penalized…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-12-21 Yang Ning , Sida Peng , Kosuke Imai

In this work, we propose a novel generative method to identify the causal impact and apply it to prediction tasks. We conduct causal impact analysis using interventional and counterfactual perspectives. First, applying interventions, we…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-03 Soma Bandyopadhyay , Sudeshna Sarkar

Sensitivity analysis is an important tool used in many domains of computational science to either gain insight into the mathematical model and interaction of its parameters or study the uncertainty propagation through the input-output…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-02 Juraj Kardos , Wouter Edeling , Diana Suleimenova , Derek Groen , Olaf Schenk

This paper presents a groundbreaking approach to causal inference by integrating continuous normalizing flows (CNFs) with parametric submodels, enhancing their geometric sensitivity and improving upon traditional Targeted Maximum Likelihood…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-02 Kaiwen Hou

Proxy variables are commonly used in causal inference when unmeasured confounding exists. While most existing proximal methods assume a unidirectional causal relationship between two primary variables, many social and biological systems…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-21 Jiaqi Min , Xueyue Zhang , Shanshan Luo

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have become the de facto standard for analyzing graph-structured data, leveraging message-passing techniques to capture both structural and node feature information. However, recent studies have raised concerns…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-22 Yujia Wu , Bo Yang , Yang Zhao , Elynn Chen , Yuzhou Chen , Zheshi Zheng

We explore the usage of meta-learning to derive the causal direction between variables by optimizing over a measure of distribution simplicity. We incorporate a stochastic graph representation which includes latent variables and allows for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-11 Justin Wong , Dominik Damjakob

An observational study may be biased for estimating causal effects by failing to control for unmeasured confounders. This paper proposes a new quantity called the "sensitivity value", which is defined as the minimum strength of unmeasured…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-05-24 Qingyuan Zhao

In most real-world systems units are interconnected and can be represented as networks consisting of nodes and edges. For instance, in social systems individuals can have social ties, family or financial relationships. In settings where…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-07-31 Laura Forastiere , Fabrizia Mealli , Albert Wu , Edoardo Airoldi

Interpreting the inner function of neural networks is crucial for the trustworthy development and deployment of these black-box models. Prior interpretability methods focus on correlation-based measures to attribute model decisions to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-21 Ola Ahmad , Nicolas Bereux , Loïc Baret , Vahid Hashemi , Freddy Lecue

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs), particularly Graph Convolutional Neural Networks (GCNNs), have emerged as pivotal instruments in machine learning and signal processing for processing graph-structured data. This paper proposes an analysis…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-11-04 Xinjue Wang , Esa Ollila , Sergiy A. Vorobyov

Global sensitivity analysis is used to quantify the influence of uncertain input parameters on the response variability of a numerical model. The common quantitative methods are applicable to computer codes with scalar input variables. This…

Applications · Statistics 2008-06-09 Bertrand Iooss , Mathieu Ribatet

For observational studies, we study the sensitivity of causal inference when treatment assignments may depend on unobserved confounders. We develop a loss minimization approach for estimating bounds on the conditional average treatment…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-03-11 Steve Yadlowsky , Hongseok Namkoong , Sanjay Basu , John Duchi , Lu Tian
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