Related papers: Analytical and numerical methods for spillover eff…
A central challenge in Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) public health policy lies in determining whether to universally expand treatment access, despite the risk of sub-optimal adherence and consequent drug resistance, or to adopt a more…
Background: After a decade of a treatment as prevention (TasP) strategy based on progressive HIV testing scale-up and earlier treatment, a reduction in the estimated number of new infections in men-who-have-sex-with-men (MSM) in England had…
The United Nations (UN) issued official probabilistic population projections for all countries to 2100 in July 2015. This was done by simulating future levels of total fertility and life expectancy from Bayesian hierarchical models, and…
Equipment sharing among people who inject drugs (PWID) is a key risk factor in infection by hepatitis C virus (HCV). Both the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of interventions aimed at reducing HCV transmission in this population (such…
Understanding historical trends in the epidemic of HIV is important for assessing current and projecting future trends in prevalence, incidence and mortality and for evaluating the impact and cost-effectiveness of control measures. In…
Controlling an epidemiological model is often performed using optimal control theory techniques for which the solution depends on the equations of the control system, objective functional and possible state and/or control constraints. In…
In this paper, we propose a mathematical model for HIV-1 infection with intracellular delay. The model examines a viral-therapy for controlling infections through recombining HIV-1 virus with a genetically modified virus. For this model,…
In this article, we propose a network spread model for HIV epidemics, wherein each individual is represented by a node of the transmission network and the edges are the connections between individuals along which the infection may spread.…
The extent to which ART (anti-retroviral therapy) reduces HIV transmission has received attention in recent years. Using data on the relationship between transmission and viral load we show that transmission saturates at high viral loads.…
This paper studies the identification and estimation of heterogeneous effects of an endogenous treatment under interference and spillovers in a large single-network setting. We model endogenous treatment selection as an equilibrium outcome…
HIV-1 can disseminate between susceptible cells by two mechanisms: cell-free infection following fluid-phase diffusion of virions and by highly-efficient direct cell-to-cell transmission at immune cell contacts. The contribution of this…
The expansion of tools against HIV transmission has brought increased interest in epidemiological models that can predict the impact of these interventions. The EMOD-HIV model was recently compared to eleven other independently developed…
HIV transmission within serodiscordant couples remains a significant public health challenge, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. Estimating the rate of such infection, alongside the rates of introduction of infection from outside the…
This paper studies the problem of optimally allocating treatments in the presence of spillover effects, using information from a (quasi-)experiment. I introduce a method that maximizes the sample analog of average social welfare when…
The rates of escape and reversion in response to selection pressure arising from the host immune system, notably the cytotoxic T-lymphocyte (CTL) response, are key factors determining the evolution of HIV. Existing methods for estimating…
Dynamic models have been successfully used in producing estimates of HIV epidemics at the national level due to their epidemiological nature and their ability to estimate prevalence, incidence, and mortality rates simultaneously. Recently,…
Sexual partnerships that overlap in time (concurrent relationships) may play a significant role in the HIV epidemic, but the precise effect is unclear. We derive edge-based compartmental models of disease spread in idealized dynamic…
The contact structure between hosts has a critical influence on disease spread. However, most networkbased models used in epidemiology tend to ignore heterogeneity in the weighting of contacts. This assumption is known to be at odds with…
In many observational studies in social science and medicine, subjects or units are connected, and one unit's treatment and attributes may affect another's treatment and outcome, violating the stable unit treatment value assumption (SUTVA)…
Epidemiologic studies of infectious diseases often rely on models of contact networks to capture the complex interactions that govern disease spread, and ongoing projects aim to vastly increase the scale at which such data can be collected.…