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In this paper, we establish a relationship between the asymptotic form of conditional boundary crossing probabilities and first passage time densities for diffusion processes. Namely, we show that, under broad assumptions, the first…

Probability · Mathematics 2008-11-18 Konstantin A. Borovkov , Andrew N. Downes

In this paper we consider a mean-field backward stochastic differential equation (BSDE) driven by a Brownian motion and an independent Poisson random measure. Translating the splitting method introduced by Buckdahn, Li, Peng and Rainer [6]…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-02-20 Juan Li

In this thesis, we develop analytical methods to study out-of-equilibrium stochastic processes driven by colored noise, i.e., noise with temporal correlations. These non-Markovian processes pose significant analytical challenges compared to…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2025-08-07 Mathis Guéneau

Piecewise-deterministic Markov processes form a general class of non-diffusion stochastic models that involve both deterministic trajectories and random jumps at random times. In this paper, we state a new characterization of the jump rate…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-05-03 Romain Azaïs , Alexandre Genadot

Dirichlet processes and their extensions have reached a great popularity in Bayesian nonparametric statistics. They have also been introduced for spatial and spatio-temporal data, as a tool to analyze and predict surfaces. A popular…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-03-31 Clara Grazian

In this paper, we derive identities for the upward and downward exit problems and resolvents for a process whose motion changes between two L\'evy processes if it is above (or below) a barrier $b$ and coincides with a Poissonian arrival…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-03-06 Noah Beelders , Lewis Ramsden , Apostolos D. Papaioannou

In this paper we consider a reduced-form intensity-based credit risk model with a hidden Markov state process. A filtering method is proposed for extracting the underlying state given the observation processes. The method may be applied to…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2016-03-10 Feng-Hui Yu , Wai-Ki Ching , Jia-Wen Gu , Tak-Kuen Siu

We present limit theorems for a sequence of Piecewise Deterministic Markov Processes (PDMPs) taking values in a separable Hilbert space. This class of processes provides a rigorous framework for stochastic spatial models in which discrete…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-04-13 Martin G. Riedler , Michèle Thieullen , Gilles Wainrib

Many physical phenomena are modeled as stochastic searchers looking for targets. In these models, the probability that a searcher finds a particular target, its so-called hitting probability, is often of considerable interest. In this work…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2024-07-18 Samantha Linn , Sean D. Lawley

While classical concentration inequalities are typically restricted to two special cases -- independence and martingale difference sequences -- we extend concentration inequalities to a much broader class of stochastic processes by relaxing…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-02-25 Changqing Liu

Let X and Y be time-homogeneous Markov processes with common state space E, and assume that the transition kernels of X and Y admit densities with respect to suitable reference measures. We show that if there is a time t>0 such that, for…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 P. J. Fitzsimmons

This paper derives several formulae for the probability that a Wiener process, which has a stochastic drift and random variance, crosses a one-sided stochastic boundary within a finite time interval. A non-explicit formula is first obtained…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-10-04 Yoann Potiron

We show that a substantial portion of stochastic calculus can be developed along similar lines to ordinary calculus, with derivative-based concepts driving the development. We define a notion of stopping derivative, which is a form of right…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-02-06 Alex Simpson

We study the distribution of first-passage functionals ${\cal A}= \int_0^{t_f} x^n(t)\, dt$, where $x(t)$ is a Brownian motion (with or without drift) with diffusion constant $D$, starting at $x_0>0$, and $t_f$ is the first-passage time to…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2021-02-24 Satya N. Majumdar , Baruch Meerson

We consider statistical inference for a class of dynamic mixed-effect models described by stochastic differential equations whose drift and diffusion coefficients simultaneously depend on fixed- and random-effect parameters. Assuming that…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-12-30 Maud Delattre , Hiroki Masuda

In this work, we present a general method to establish properties of multi-dimensional continuous-time Markov chains representing stochastic reaction networks. This method consists of grouping states together (via a partition of the state…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-05-27 Guillaume Ballif , Laurent Pfeiffer , Jakob Ruess

We analyze a class of continuous time random walks in $\mathbb R^d,d\geq 2,$ with uniformly distributed directions. The steps performed by these processes are distributed according to a generalized Dirichlet law. Given the number of changes…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-06-16 Alessandro De Gregorio

Considering the issue of estimating small probabilities p, ie. measuring a rare domain F = {x | g(x) > q} with respect to the distribution of a random vector X, Multilevel Splitting strategies (also called Subset Simulation) aim at writing…

Computation · Statistics 2015-09-10 Clément Walter

In this paper we develop a perturbation method to predict the rate of occurrence of rare events for singularly perturbed stochastic systems using a probability density function approach. In contrast to a stochastic normal form approach, we…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2015-06-16 Christoffer R. Heckman , Ira B. Schwartz

We study sequences of partitions of the unit interval into subintervals, starting from the trivial partition, in which each partition is obtained from the one before by splitting its subintervals in two, according to a given rule, and then…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-03-30 Serge Cohen , James Norris , Michel Pain , Gennady Samorodnitsky