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We describe and analyze a variance reduction approach for Monte Carlo (MC) sampling that accelerates the estimation of statistics of computationally expensive simulation models using an ensemble of models with lower cost. These lower cost…

Computation · Statistics 2021-05-04 Alex A. Gorodetsky , Gianluca Geraci , Mike Eldred , John D. Jakeman

Multifidelity methods are widely used for estimating quantities of interest (QoI) in computational science by employing numerical simulations of differing costs and accuracies. Many methods approximate numerical-valued statistics that…

Computation · Statistics 2022-12-02 Yiming Xu , Akil Narayan

While multifidelity modeling provides a cost-effective way to conduct uncertainty quantification with computationally expensive models, much greater efficiency can be achieved by adaptively deciding the number of required high-fidelity (HF)…

We present a multi-fidelity method for uncertainty quantification of parameter estimates in complex systems, leveraging generative models trained to sample the target conditional distribution. In the Bayesian inference setting, traditional…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-03 Caroline Tatsuoka , Minglei Yang , Dongbin Xiu , Guannan Zhang

Numerical models are widely used to simulate the earth system, but they are computationally expensive and often depend on many uncertain input parameters. Their effective use requires calibration and uncertainty quantification, which…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-06 Tristan Contant , Yawen Guan , Ander Wilson , Adrian K. Turner , Deborah Sulsky

Bayesian Optimization (BO) is a popular framework for optimizing black-box functions. Despite its effectiveness, BO is often inefficient for high-dimensional problems due to the exponential growth of the search space, heterogeneity of the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-05-08 Sourav Das , Debjani Chakraborty , Pabitra Mitra

This paper proposes a random subspace trust-region algorithm for general convex-constrained derivative-free optimization (DFO) problems. Similar to previous random subspace DFO methods, the convergence of our algorithm requires a certain…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-05-14 Yiwen Chen , Warren Hare , Amy Wiebe

Large-scale optimization problems are ubiquitous in the physical sciences; yet, high-fidelity models can often be complex and computationally prohibitive for optimization. A practical alternative is to use a low-fidelity model to facilitate…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2026-04-03 Madhusudan Madhavan , Joseph Hart , Bart van Bloemen Waanders

Multifidelity uncertainty propagation combines the efficiency of low-fidelity models with the accuracy of a high-fidelity model to construct statistical estimators of quantities of interest. It is well known that the effectiveness of such…

Computation · Statistics 2026-01-06 James E. Warner , Geoffrey F. Bomarito , Gianluca Geraci , Michael S. Eldred

Machine learning force fields (MLFF) have been proposed to accelerate molecular dynamics (MD) simulation, which finds widespread applications in chemistry and biomedical research. Even for the most data-efficient MLFFs, reaching chemical…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2023-06-07 Alexander Bukharin , Tianyi Liu , Shengjie Wang , Simiao Zuo , Weihao Gao , Wen Yan , Tuo Zhao

Optimization constrained by high-fidelity computational models has potential for transformative impact. However, such optimization is frequently unattainable in practice due to the complexity and computational intensity of the model. An…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-06-04 Joseph Hart , Bart van Bloemen Waanders

In many computational science and engineering applications, the output of a system of interest corresponding to a given input can be queried at different levels of fidelity with different costs. Typically, low-fidelity data is cheap and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-13 Sami Khairy , Prasanna Balaprakash

Highly accurate numerical or physical experiments are often time-consuming or expensive to obtain. When time or budget restrictions prohibit the generation of additional data, the amount of available samples may be too limited to provide…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2021-12-22 Mengwu Guo , Andrea Manzoni , Maurice Amendt , Paolo Conti , Jan S. Hesthaven

We propose a novel technique for analyzing adaptive sampling called the {\em Simulator}. Our approach differs from the existing methods by considering not how much information could be gathered by any fixed sampling strategy, but how…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-25 Max Simchowitz , Kevin Jamieson , Benjamin Recht

A common goal throughout science and engineering is to solve optimization problems constrained by computational models. However, in many cases a high-fidelity numerical emulation of systems cannot be optimized due to code complexity and…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-05-31 Joseph Hart , Bart van Bloemen Waanders

We propose a stochastic trust-region method for unconstrained nonconvex optimization that incorporates stochastic variance-reduced gradients (SVRG) to accelerate convergence. Unlike classical trust-region methods, the proposed algorithm…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-01-22 Yuchen Fang , Xinshou Zheng , Javad Lavaei

Computer simulations have become essential for analyzing complex systems, but high-fidelity simulations often come with significant computational costs. To tackle this challenge, multi-fidelity computer experiments have emerged as a…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-05 Junoh Heo , Chih-Li Sung

Multi-fidelity Kriging model is a promising technique in surrogate-based design as it can balance the model accuracy and cost of sample preparation by fusing low- and high-fidelity data. However, the cost for building a multi-fidelity…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-03 Youwei He , Jinliang Luo

Bayesian optimization (BO) is increasingly employed in critical applications to find the optimal design with minimal cost. While BO is known for its sample efficiency, relying solely on costly high-fidelity data can still result in high…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-03-25 Zahra Zanjani Foumani , Ramin Bostanabad

Multi-fidelity Monte Carlo methods leverage low-fidelity and surrogate models for variance reduction to make tractable uncertainty quantification even when numerically simulating the physical systems of interest with high-fidelity models is…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2022-11-22 Ionut-Gabriel Farcas , Benjamin Peherstorfer , Tobias Neckel , Frank Jenko , Hans-Joachim Bungartz