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Estimating probability of failure in aerospace systems is a critical requirement for flight certification and qualification. Failure probability estimation involves resolving tails of probability distribution, and Monte Carlo sampling…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2022-09-22 S. Ashwin Renganathan , Vishwas Rao , Ionel M. Navon

We propose a trust-region method for finite-sum minimization with an adaptive sample size adjustment technique, which is practical in the sense that it leads to a globally convergent method that shows strong performance empirically without…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-10-09 Robert Mohr , Oliver Stein

Likelihood-free Bayesian inference algorithms are popular methods for calibrating the parameters of complex, stochastic models, required when the likelihood of the observed data is intractable. These algorithms characteristically rely…

Computation · Statistics 2021-12-23 Thomas P Prescott , David J Warne , Ruth E Baker

Testing and evaluation are expensive but critical steps in the development of connected and automated vehicles (CAVs). In this paper, we develop an adaptive sampling framework to efficiently evaluate the accident rate of CAVs, particularly…

Robotics · Computer Science 2023-06-02 Xianliang Gong , Shuo Feng , Yulin Pan

We propose a novel approach to allocating resources for expensive simulations of high fidelity models when used in a multifidelity framework. Allocation decisions that distribute computational resources across several simulation models…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2019-01-01 Daniel J. Perry , Robert M. Kirby , Akil Narayan , Ross T. Whitaker

There is emerging evidence that trust-region (TR) algorithms are very effective at solving derivative-free nonconvex stochastic optimization problems in which the objective function is a Monte Carlo (MC) estimate. A recent strand of…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-04-02 Giovanni Amici , Sara Shashaani , Pranav Jain

Reliability-based design optimization (RBDO) provides a rational and sound framework for finding the optimal design while taking uncertainties into ac-count. The main issue in implementing RBDO methods, particularly stochastic simu-lation…

Applications · Statistics 2020-03-03 Wang-Sheng Liu , Sai Hung Cheung

Across many domains of science, stochastic models are an essential tool to understand the mechanisms underlying empirically observed data. Models can be of different levels of detail and accuracy, with models of high-fidelity (i.e., high…

Active multi-fidelity surrogate modeling is developed for multi-condition airfoil shape optimization to reduce high-fidelity CFD cost while retaining RANS-level accuracy. The framework couples a low-fidelity-informed Gaussian process…

Due to their cost, experiments for inertial confinement fusion (ICF) heavily rely on numerical simulations to guide design. As simulation technology progresses, so too can the fidelity of models used to plan for new experiments. However,…

Plasma Physics · Physics 2024-06-11 J. Wang , N. Chiang , A. Gillette , J. L. Peterson

In many fields of science and engineering, models with different fidelities are available. Physical experiments or detailed simulations that accurately capture the behavior of the system are regarded as high-fidelity models with low model…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-09-22 Chi Zhang , Chaolin Song , Abdollah Shafieezadeh

This paper develops a multifidelity method that enables estimation of failure probabilities for expensive-to-evaluate models via information fusion and importance sampling. The presented general fusion method combines multiple probability…

A vital stage in the mathematical modelling of real-world systems is to calibrate a model's parameters to observed data. Likelihood-free parameter inference methods, such as Approximate Bayesian Computation, build Monte Carlo samples of the…

Computation · Statistics 2021-12-23 Thomas P Prescott , Ruth E Baker

We consider unconstrained multi-criteria optimization problems with finite sum objective functions. The proposed algorithm belongs to a non-monotone trust region framework where additional sampling approach is used to govern the sample size…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-03-13 Nataša Krklec Jerinkić , Luka Rutešić , Ilaria Trombini

In multi-fidelity optimization, biased approximations of varying costs of the target function are available. This paper studies the problem of optimizing a locally smooth function with a limited budget, where the learner has to make a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-20 Come Fiegel , Victor Gabillon , Michal Valko

High-resolution simulation models are essential for representing complex physical systems, yet their substantial computational cost severely limits the number of feasible high-fidelity (HF) evaluations. This problem is often addressed…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-21 Hossein Mohammadi

Models that balance accuracy against computational costs are advantageous when designing dynamic systems with optimization studies, as several hundred predictive function evaluations might be necessary to identify the optimal solution. The…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-08-16 Athul Krishna Sundarrajan , Daniel R. Herber

Efficient optimization remains a fundamental challenge across numerous scientific and engineering domains, especially when objective function and gradient evaluations are computationally expensive. While zeroth-order optimization methods…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-04 Nuojin Cheng , Alireza Doostan , Stephen Becker

Multifidelity approximate Bayesian computation (MF-ABC) is a likelihood-free technique for parameter inference that exploits model approximations to significantly increase the speed of ABC algorithms (Prescott and Baker, 2020). Previous…

Computation · Statistics 2021-12-23 Thomas P. Prescott , Ruth E. Baker

Robust controllers that stabilize dynamical systems even under disturbances and noise are often formulated as solutions of nonsmooth, nonconvex optimization problems. While methods such as gradient sampling can handle the nonconvexity and…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-05-01 Steffen W. R. Werner , Michael L. Overton , Benjamin Peherstorfer