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In this paper, under mild assumptions, we derive a law of large numbers, a central limit theorem with an error estimate, an almost sure invariance principle and a variant of Chernoff bound in finite-state hidden Markov models. These limit…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2012-04-13 Guangyue Han

We prove a local central limit theorem (LCLT) for the number of points $N(J)$ in a region $J$ in $\mathbb R^d$ specified by a determinantal point process with an Hermitian kernel. The only assumption is that the variance of $N(J)$ tends to…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2015-06-18 Peter J. Forrester , Joel L. Lebowitz

In this paper, we establish a spatial central limit theorem for a large class of supercritical branching, not necessarily symmetric, Markov processes with spatially dependent branching mechanisms satisfying a second moment condition. This…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-04-02 Yan-Xia Ren , Renming Song , Rui Zhang

To quantify the changes in the credit rating of a bond is an important mathematical problem for the credit rating industry. To think of the credit rating as the state a Markov chain is an interesting proposal leading to challenges in…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-03-20 Henryk Gzyl , Silvia Mayoral

This paper considers maximum likelihood (ML) estimation in a large class of models with hidden Markov regimes. We investigate consistency of the ML estimator and local asymptotic normality for the models under general conditions which allow…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-12-07 Demian Pouzo , Zacharias Psaradakis , Martin Sola

The well-known Linear Chain Trick (LCT) allows modelers to derive mean field ODEs that assume gamma (Erlang) distributed passage times, by transitioning individuals sequentially through a chain of sub-states. The time spent in these states…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2021-05-25 Paul J. Hurtado , Cameron Richards

Markov population models (MPMs) are a widely used modelling formalism in the area of computational biology and related areas. The semantics of a MPM is an infinite-state continuous-time Markov chain. In this paper, we use the established…

Numerical Analysis · Computer Science 2014-06-10 David Spieler , Ernst Moritz Hahn , Lijun Zhang

We study the convergence in distribution norms in the Central Limit Theorem for non identical distributed random variables that is $$ \varepsilon_{n}(f):={\mathbb{E}}\Big(f\Big(\frac 1{\sqrt…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-05-16 Vlad Bally , Lucia Caramellino , Guillaume Poly

Let $(A_n)_{n\in\mathbb{N}}$ be a stationary sequence of topical (i.e., isotone and additively homogeneous) operators. Let $x(n,x_0)$ be defined by $x(0,x_0)=x_0$ and $x(n+1,x_0)=A_nx(n,x_0)$. It can model a wide range of systems including…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-10-30 Glenn Merlet

We present a central limit theorem for stationary random fields that are short-range dependent and asymptotically independent. As an application, we present a central limit theorem for an infinite family of interacting It\^o-type diffusion…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-10-19 Le Chen , Davar Khoshnevisan , David Nualart , Fei Pu

Let $(\tau_n)$ be a sequence of toral automorphisms $\tau_n : x \rightarrow A_n x \hbox{mod}\ZZ^d$ with $A_n \in {\cal A}$, where ${\cal A}$ is a finite set of matrices in $SL(d, \mathbb{Z})$. Under some conditions the method of…

Probability · Mathematics 2010-06-22 Jean-Pierre Conze , Stéphane Le Borgne , Mikaël Roger

Under reasonable algebraic assumptions and under an infinite second order moment assumption, we show that the logarithm of the norm (log-norm) of a product of random i.i.d. matrices with entries in $\mathbb{R}$ or in any other local field…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-01-09 Axel Péneau

We consider the existence of the integrated density of states (IDS) of the Anderson model on the Hilbert space $\ell^2(\mathbb{Z}^d)$ as analogues to the law of large numbers (LLN). In this work, we prove the analogues central limit theorem…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2024-12-04 Dhriti Ranjan Dolai

Adept traffic models are critical to both planning and closed-loop simulation for autonomous vehicles (AV), and key design objectives include accuracy, diverse multimodal behaviors, interpretability, and downstream compatibility. Recently,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-01 Yuxiao Chen , Sander Tonkens , Marco Pavone

Using the Coulomb Fluid method, this paper derives central limit theorems (CLTs) for linear spectral statistics of three "spiked" Hermitian random matrix ensembles. These include Johnstone's spiked model (i.e., central Wishart with spiked…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-06-18 Damien Passemier , Matthew R. Mckay , Yang Chen

We prove a central limit theorem (CLT) for the number of joint orbits of random tuples of commuting permutations. In the uniform sampling case this generalizes the classic CLT of Goncharov for the number of cycles of a single random…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-02-20 Abdelmalek Abdesselam , Shannon Starr

Probabilistic Computation Tree Logic (PCTL) is frequently used to formally specify control objectives such as probabilistic reachability and safety. In this work, we focus on model checking PCTL specifications statistically on Markov…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-04-23 Yu Wang , Nima Roohi , Matthew West , Mahesh Viswanathan , Geir E. Dullerud

In this paper, we study the discretization of the ergodic Functional Central Limit Theorem (CLT) established by Bhattacharya (see \cite{Bhattacharya_1982}) which states the following: Given a stationary and ergodic Markov process $(X_t)_{t…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-03-10 Gilles Pagès , Clément Rey

We obtain large deviations estimates for both sequential and random compositions of intermittent maps. We also address the question of whether or not centering is necessary for the quenched central limit theorems (CLT) obtained by Nicol,…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2020-08-14 Matthew Nicol , Felipe Perez Pereira , Andrew Torok

Classical Edgeworth expansions provide asymptotic correction terms to the Central Limit Theorem (CLT) up to an order that depends on the number of moments available. In this paper, we provide subsequent correction terms beyond those given…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-03-23 Henry Lam , Jose Blanchet , Damian Burch , Martin Z. Bazant
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