Related papers: M-estimation for Gaussian processes with time-inho…
In Bayesian nonparametric models, Gaussian processes provide a popular prior choice for regression function estimation. Existing literature on the theoretical investigation of the resulting posterior distribution almost exclusively assume a…
Let $X = \{X_{u}\}_{u \in U}$ be a real-valued Gaussian process indexed by a set $U$. It can be thought of as an undirected graphical model with every random variable $X_{u}$ serving as a vertex. We characterize this graph in terms of the…
We propose a local version of spatio-temporal log-Gaussian Cox processes using Local Indicators of Spatio-Temporal Association (LISTA) functions into the minimum contrast procedure to obtain space as well as time-varying parameters. We…
Correlation between microstructure noise and latent financial logarithmic returns is an empirically relevant phenomenon with sound theoretical justification. With few notable exceptions, all integrated variance estimators proposed in the…
The aim of this paper is to develop estimation and inference methods for the drift parameters of multivariate L\'evy-driven continuous-time autoregressive processes of order $p\in\mathbb{N}$. Starting from a continuous-time observation of…
We develop a multi-level restricted Gaussian maximum likelihood method for estimating the covariance function parameters and computing the best unbiased predictor. Our approach produces a new set of multi-level contrasts where the…
We study the estimation of the invariant density of additive fractional stochastic differential equations with Hurst parameter $H \in (0,1)$. We first focus on continuous observations and develop a kernel-based estimator achieving faster…
To speed up Gaussian process inference, a number of fast kernel matrix-vector multiplication (MVM) approximation algorithms have been proposed over the years. In this paper, we establish an exact fast kernel MVM algorithm based on exact…
We consider the semi-parametric estimation of a scale parameter of a one-dimensional Gaussian process with known smoothness. We suggest an estimator based on quadratic variations and on the moment method. We provide asymptotic…
We consider the setting of multiscale overdamped Langevin stochastic differential equations, and study the problem of learning the drift function of the homogenized dynamics from continuous-time observations of the multiscale system. We…
We consider a 1-dimensional diffusion process X with jumps. The particularity of this model relies in the jumps which are driven by a multidimensional Hawkes process denoted N. This article is dedicated to the study of a nonparametric…
We develop a fast variational approximation scheme for Gaussian process (GP) regression, where the spectrum of the covariance function is subjected to a sparse approximation. Our approach enables uncertainty in covariance function…
In this paper we introduce a novel online time series forecasting model we refer to as the pM-GP filter. We show that our model is equivalent to Gaussian process regression, with the advantage that both online forecasting and online…
Gaussian graphical models (GGMs) are probabilistic tools of choice for analyzing conditional dependencies between variables in complex systems. Finding changepoints in the structural evolution of a GGM is therefore essential to detecting…
We establish asymptotic properties of $M$-estimators, defined in terms of a contrast function and observations from a continuous-time locally stationary process. Using the stationary approximation of the sequence, $\theta$-weak dependence,…
We study the problem of drift estimation for two-scale continuous time series. We set ourselves in the framework of overdamped Langevin equations, for which a single-scale surrogate homogenized equation exists. In this setting, estimating…
In this work, we employ the Bayesian inference framework to solve the problem of estimating the solution and particularly, its derivatives, which satisfy a known differential equation, from the given noisy and scarce observations of the…
Gaussian process is a very promising novel technology that has been applied to both the regression problem and the classification problem. While for the regression problem it yields simple exact solutions, this is not the case for the…
We establish uniform pointwise estimates for the densities of a family of $\alpha$-stable processes with respect to the index $\alpha \in [\alpha_0,2]$ for some $\alpha_0>0$. In addition, we estimate the difference between the heat kernels…
We consider a stochastic differential equation of the form $dr_t = (a - b r_t) dt + \sigma\sqrt{r_t}dW_t$, where $a$, $b$ and $\sigma$ are positive constants. The solution corresponds to the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross process. We study the…