Related papers: Robust Econometrics for Growth-at-Risk
In the modern financial sector, the exponential growth of data has made efficient and accurate financial data analysis increasingly crucial. Traditional methods, such as statistical analysis and rule-based systems, often struggle to process…
Realised volatility has become increasingly prominent in volatility forecasting due to its ability to capture intraday price fluctuations. With a growing variety of realised volatility estimators, each with unique advantages and…
We investigate the ergodic problem of growth-rate maximization under a class of risk constraints in the context of incomplete, It\^{o}-process models of financial markets with random ergodic coefficients. Including {\em value-at-risk}…
Panel data arise in a wide range of application areas, and developing modelling methods for extreme values under such a setup is essential for reliable risk assessment and management. When choosing to model the marginal distributions of…
In the presence of model risk, it is well-established to replace classical expected values by worst-case expectations over all models within a fixed radius from a given reference model. This is the "robustness" approach. We show that…
Functional data analysis is a fast evolving branch of statistics. Estimation procedures for the popular functional linear model either suffer from lack of robustness or are computationally burdensome. To address these shortcomings, a…
The Pareto model is very popular in risk management, since simple analytical formulas can be derived for financial downside risk measures (Value-at-Risk, Expected Shortfall) or reinsurance premiums and related quantities (Large Claim Index,…
The adversarial robustness of Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) has been questioned due to the false sense of security uncovered by strong adaptive attacks despite the existence of numerous defenses. In this work, we delve into the robustness…
Recent financial disasters have emphasised the need to accurately predict extreme financial losses and their consequences for the institutions belonging to a given financial market. The ability of econometric models to predict extreme…
Value at risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) are common high quantile-based risk measures adopted in financial regulations and risk management. In this paper, we propose a tail risk measure based on the most probable maximum size of risk…
Conventional methods for extreme event estimation rely on well-chosen parametric models asymptotically justified from extreme value theory (EVT). These methods, while powerful and theoretically grounded, could however encounter a difficult…
Graph-based Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) has proven effective in integrating external knowledge into large language models (LLMs), improving their factual accuracy, adaptability, interpretability, and trustworthiness. A number of…
Imitation learning algorithms learn viable policies by imitating an expert's behavior when reward signals are not available. Generative Adversarial Imitation Learning (GAIL) is a state-of-the-art algorithm for learning policies when the…
The task of robust linear estimation in the presence of outliers is of particular importance in signal processing, statistics and machine learning. Although the problem has been stated a few decades ago and solved using classical…
Measuring risk is at the center of modern financial risk management. As the world economy is becoming more complex and standard modeling assumptions are violated, the advanced artificial intelligence solutions may provide the right tools to…
Financial crises emerge when structural vulnerabilities accumulate across sectors, markets, and investor behavior. Predicting these systemic transitions is challenging because they arise from evolving interactions between market…
This article introduces a novel framework for data-driven linear quadratic regulator (LQR) design. First, we introduce a reinforcement learning paradigm for on-policy data-driven LQR, where exploration and exploitation are simultaneously…
Conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) and value-at-risk (VaR) are popular tail-risk measures in finance and insurance industries as well as in highly reliable, safety-critical uncertain environments where often the underlying probability…
This paper investigates the application of Feature-Enriched Generative Adversarial Networks (FE-GAN) in financial risk management, with a focus on improving the estimation of Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES). FE-GAN enhances…
This article explores the existing normalizing and variance-stabilizing (NoVaS) method on predicting squared log-returns of financial data. First, we explore the robustness of the existing NoVaS method for long-term time-aggregated…