Related papers: Robust Econometrics for Growth-at-Risk
High dimensional Vector Autoregressions (VAR) have received a lot of interest recently due to novel applications in health, engineering, finance and the social sciences. Three issues arise when analyzing VAR's: (a) The high dimensional…
Detecting structural instability and anomalies in high-dimensional financial time series is challenging due to complex temporal dependence and evolving cross-sectional structure. We propose ReGEN-TAD, an interpretable generative framework…
The relationship between micro-structure and macro-structure of complex systems using information geometry has been dealt by several authors. From this perspective, we are going to apply it as a geometrical structure connecting both…
A robust controller is specified, and the stability bounds of the uncertain closed-loop system are determined using the small gain, circle, positive real, and Popov criteria. A graphical approach is employed in order to demonstrate the ease…
Graph Representation Learning (GRL) has experienced significant progress as a means to extract structural information in a meaningful way for subsequent learning tasks. Current approaches including shallow embeddings and Graph Neural…
Extreme Value Theory (EVT) is one of the most commonly used approaches in finance for measuring the downside risk of investment portfolios, especially during financial crises. In this paper, we propose a novel approach based on EVT called…
The measure of portfolio risk is an important input of the Markowitz framework. In this study, we explored various methods to obtain a robust covariance estimators that are less susceptible to financial data noise. We evaluated the…
We establish a statistical learning theoretical framework aimed at extrapolation, or out-of-domain generalization, on the unobserved tails of covariates in continuous regression problems. Our strategy involves performing statistical…
In real-world applications of reinforcement learning (RL), noise from inherent stochasticity of environments is inevitable. However, current policy evaluation algorithms, which plays a key role in many RL algorithms, are either prone to…
We present a generative approach to price options and extract risk-neutral densities from the market. Specifically, we model the underlying log-returns on the time-to-maturity continuum as a generative model from standard normal. Neural…
We study the problem of safe learning and exploration in sequential control problems. The goal is to safely collect data samples from operating in an environment, in order to learn to achieve a challenging control goal (e.g., an agile…
We provide a new computationally-efficient class of estimators for risk minimization. We show that these estimators are robust for general statistical models: in the classical Huber epsilon-contamination model and in heavy-tailed settings.…
When estimating the risk of a financial position with empirical data or Monte Carlo simulations via a tail-dependent law invariant risk measure such as the Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR), it is important to ensure the robustness of the…
Large multimodal models (LMMs) have exhibited proficiencies across many visual tasks. Although numerous well-known benchmarks exist to evaluate model performance, they increasingly have insufficient headroom. As such, there is a pressing…
Volatility asymmetry is a hot topic in high-frequency financial market. In this paper, we propose a new econometric model, which could describe volatility asymmetry based on high-frequency historical data and low-frequency historical data.…
In this paper we use Gaussian Process (GP) regression to propose a novel approach for predicting volatility of financial returns by forecasting the envelopes of the time series. We provide a direct comparison of their performance to…
Uncertainty is prevalent in engineering design, data-driven problems, and decision making broadly. Due to inherent risk-averseness and ambiguity about assumptions, it is common to address uncertainty by formulating and solving conservative…
Continual reinforcement learning (continual RL) seeks to formalize the notions of lifelong learning and endless adaptation in RL. In particular, the aim of continual RL is to develop RL agents that can maintain a careful balance between…
Generalized linear models are flexible tools for the analysis of diverse datasets, but the classical formulation requires that the parametric component is correctly specified and the data contain no atypical observations. To address these…
Starting from a linear fractional representation of a linear system affected by constant parametric uncertainties, we demonstrate how to enhance standard robust analysis tests by taking available (noisy) input-output data of the uncertain…