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In statistical exercises where there are several candidate models, the traditional approach is to select one model using some data driven criterion and use that model for estimation, testing and other purposes, ignoring the variability of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-12-18 Snigdhansu Chatterjee , Nitai D. Mukhopadhyay

Platform trials evaluate multiple experimental treatments against a common control group (and/or against each other), which often reduces the trial duration and sample size. Bayesian platform designs offer several practical advantages,…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-18 Luke Hagar , Lara Maleyeff , Shirin Golchi , Dick Menzies

Classification models are a fundamental component of physical-asset management technologies such as structural health monitoring (SHM) systems and digital twins. Previous work introduced risk-based active learning, an online approach for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-13 Aidan J. Hughes , Lawrence A. Bull , Paul Gardner , Nikolaos Dervilis , Keith Worden

The Bayesian Optimal Phase II (BOP2) framework is a flexible trial design that can naturally facilitate complex adaptations due to its Bayesian setting. BOP2 uses equal randomisation and equally placed interim analyses in its design, but it…

Applications · Statistics 2025-11-19 Connor Fitchett , Ayon Mukherjee , Sofía S. Villar , David S. Robertson

In this paper, we investigate accelerated life testing (ALT) models based on the Weibull distribution with stress-dependent shape and scale parameters. Temperature and voltage are treated as stress variables influencing the lifetime…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-13 Rahul Konar , Ramnivas Jat , Neeraj Joshi , Raghu Nandan Sengupta

Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) is a popular Bayesian non-parametric regression model that is commonly used in causal inference and beyond. Its strong predictive performance is supported by well-developed estimation theory,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-10 Yan Shuo Tan , Omer Ronen , Theo Saarinen , Bin Yu

We explore the performance of sample average approximation in comparison with several other methods for stochastic optimization when there is information available on the underlying true probability distribution. The methods we evaluate are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-07-22 Eddie Anderson , Harrison Nguyen

With the pervasiveness of Stochastic Shortest-Path (SSP) problems in high-risk industries, such as last-mile autonomous delivery and supply chain management, robust planning algorithms are crucial for ensuring successful task completion…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-08-19 Clinton Enwerem , Erfaun Noorani , John S. Baras , Brian M. Sadler

Bayesian paradigm takes advantage of well fitting complicated survival models and feasible computing in survival analysis owing to the superiority in tackling the complex censoring scheme, compared with the frequentist paradigm. In this…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-09-10 Chong Zhong , Zhihua Ma , Junshan Shen , Catherine Liu

The declining response rates in probability surveys along with the widespread availability of unstructured data has led to growing research into non-probability samples. Existing robust approaches are not well-developed for non-Gaussian…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-03-29 Ali Rafei , Michael R. Elliott , Carol A. C. Flannagan

We consider the problem of chance constrained optimization where it is sought to optimize a function and satisfy constraints, both of which are affected by uncertainties. The real world declinations of this problem are particularly…

Estimation of reliability and hazard rate is one of the most important problems raised in many applications especially in engineering studies as well as human lifetime. In this regard, different methods of estimation have been used. Each…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-07-27 Hassan Piriaeia , Omid Shojaee

It is not always clear how to adjust for control data in causal inference, balancing the goals of reducing bias and variance. We show how, in a setting with repeated experiments, Bayesian hierarchical modeling yields an adaptive procedure…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-23 Andrew Gelman , Matthijs Vákár

Many time-to-event studies are complicated by the presence of competing risks. Such data are often analyzed using Cox models for the cause specific hazard function or Fine-Gray models for the subdistribution hazard. In practice regression…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-07-02 Rodney Sparapani , Brent R. Logan , Robert E. McCulloch , Purushottam W. Laud

Big Data often presents as massive non-probability samples. Not only is the selection mechanism often unknown, but larger data volume amplifies the relative contribution of selection bias to total error. Existing bias adjustment approaches…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-03-29 Ali Rafei , Carol A. C. Flannagan , Brady T. West , Michael R. Elliott

The normalizing constant plays an important role in Bayesian computation, and there is a large literature on methods for computing or approximating normalizing constants that cannot be evaluated in closed form. When the normalizing constant…

Computation · Statistics 2020-09-02 Yuling Yao , Collin Cademartori , Aki Vehtari , Andrew Gelman

This paper considers sequential adaptive estimation of sparse signals under a constraint on the total sensing effort. The advantage of adaptivity in this context is the ability to focus more resources on regions of space where signal…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-04-03 Dennis Wei , Alfred O. Hero

The dynamics of molecules are governed by rare event transitions between long-lived (metastable) states. To explore these transitions efficiently, many enhanced sampling protocols have been introduced that involve using simulations with…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2022-09-30 Maaike M. Galama , Hao Wu , Andreas Krämer , Mohsen Sadeghi , Frank Noé

We propose a fast and theoretically grounded method for Bayesian variable selection and model averaging in latent variable regression models. Our framework addresses three interrelated challenges: (i) intractable marginal likelihoods, (ii)…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-16 Gregor Zens , Mark F. J. Steel

Restricted mean survival time (RMST) is an intuitive summary statistic for time-to-event random variables, and can be used for measuring treatment effects. Compared to hazard ratio, its estimation procedure is robust against the…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-05-25 Ruizhe Chen , Sanjib Basu , Qian Shi
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