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On top of machine learning models, uncertainty quantification (UQ) functions as an essential layer of safety assurance that could lead to more principled decision making by enabling sound risk assessment and management. The safety and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-28 Venkat Nemani , Luca Biggio , Xun Huan , Zhen Hu , Olga Fink , Anh Tran , Yan Wang , Xiaoge Zhang , Chao Hu

ML models have errors when used for predictions. The errors are unknown but can be quantified by model uncertainty. When multiple ML models are trained using the same training points, their model uncertainties may be statistically…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-09-23 Xiaoping Du

Transition-state searches are central to understanding reaction mechanisms, but the high computational cost of density-functional theory (DFT) limits their application in high-throughput catalyst and materials discovery. Machine-learned…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2026-04-02 Jonah Marks , Jonathon Vandezande , Joseph Gomes

Characterizing uncertainty is a common issue in nuclear measurement and has important implications for reliable physical discovery. Traditional methods are either insufficient to cope with the heterogeneous nature of uncertainty or…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2022-03-01 Pengcheng Ai , Zhi Deng , Yi Wang , Chendi Shen

Machine learning approaches have recently emerged as powerful tools to probe structure-property relationships in crystals and molecules. Specifically, Machine learning interatomic potentials (MLIP) can accurately reproduce first-principles…

Materials Science · Physics 2024-03-01 Sasaank Bandi , Chao Jiang , Chris A. Marianetti

The training of foundational machine learning interatomic potentials (fMLIPs) relies on diverse databases with energies and forces calculated using ab initio methods. We show that fMLIPs trained on large datasets such as MPtrj, Alexandria,…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2026-01-30 Thomas Warford , Fabian L. Thiemann , Gábor Csányi

Machine learning interatomic potentials (MLIPs) with broad chemical flexibility are important for atomistic simulations of compositionally complex materials such as high-entropy alloys. Here, we study two state-of-the-art MLIP frameworks,…

Materials Science · Physics 2026-04-06 Fei Shuang , Penghua Ying , Kai Liu , Zixiong Wei , Fengxian Liu , Zheyong Fan , Minqiang Jiang , Poulumi Dey

Multifidelity uncertainty quantification (MF UQ) sampling approaches have been shown to significantly reduce the variance of statistical estimators while preserving the bias of the highest-fidelity model, provided that the low-fidelity…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2023-08-16 Xiaoshu Zeng , Gianluca Geraci , Michael S. Eldred , John D. Jakeman , Alex A. Gorodetsky , Roger Ghanem

Process capability indices such as $C_{pk}$ are widely used for manufacturing decisions, yet are typically applied via deterministic thresholding of finite-sample estimates, ignoring uncertainty and leading to unstable outcomes near the…

Applications · Statistics 2026-04-16 Fei Jiang , Lei Yang

Ensemble knowledge distillation can extract knowledge from multiple teacher models and encode it into a single student model. Many existing methods learn and distill the student model on labeled data only. However, the teacher models are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-04-04 Chuhan Wu , Fangzhao Wu , Tao Qi , Yongfeng Huang

Uncertainty estimation in machine learning is paramount for enhancing the reliability and interpretability of predictive models, especially in high-stakes real-world scenarios. Despite the availability of numerous methods, they often pose a…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-08-16 Anton Baumann , Thomas Roßberg , Michael Schmitt

Learning against label noise is a vital topic to guarantee a reliable performance for deep neural networks. Recent research usually refers to dynamic noise modeling with model output probabilities and loss values, and then separates clean…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-07-13 Yingsong Huang , Bing Bai , Shengwei Zhao , Kun Bai , Fei Wang

Machine-learned interatomic potentials (MLIPs) are revolutionizing computational materials science and chemistry by offering an efficient alternative to {\em ab initio} molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. However, fitting high-quality…

Computational Physics · Physics 2025-12-12 Ilgar Baghishov , Jan Janssen , Graeme Henkelman , Danny Perez

Accurately predicting crystal properties is critical for accelerating materials discovery, but it is often limited by scarce labeled data and costly theoretical calculations. To alleviate this, we propose UNATE (Unsupervised Atomic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-26 Laura Solà-Garcia , Àlex Solé , Javier Ruiz-Hidalgo

Training of general-purpose machine learning interatomic potentials (MLIPs) relies on large datasets with properties usually computed with density functional theory (DFT). A pre-requisite for accurate MLIPs is that the DFT data are well…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2025-10-23 Domantas Kuryla , Fabian Berger , Gábor Csányi , Angelos Michaelides

We present a combined computational and experimental investigation of the thermal properties of uranium nitride (UN), focusing on the development of a machine learning interatomic potential (MLIP) using the moment tensor potential (MTP)…

Uncertainty estimation is critical for reliable medical image segmentation, particularly in retinal vessel analysis, where accurate predictions are essential for diagnostic applications. Deep Ensembles, where multiple networks are trained…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-09-16 Jeremiah Fadugba , Petru Manescu , Bolanle Oladejo , Delmiro Fernandez-Reyes , Philipp Berens

The introduction of the Segment Anything Model (SAM) has paved the way for numerous semantic segmentation applications. For several tasks, quantifying the uncertainty of SAM is of particular interest. However, the ambiguous nature of the…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-07-30 Timo Kaiser , Thomas Norrenbrock , Bodo Rosenhahn

We present a scheme to obtain an inexpensive and reliable estimate of the uncertainty associated with the predictions of a machine-learning model of atomic and molecular properties. The scheme is based on resampling, with multiple models…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2025-10-06 Felix Musil , Michael J. Willatt , Mikhail A. Langovoy , Michele Ceriotti

Accurate interatomic potentials (IAPs) are essential for modeling the potential energy surfaces (PES) that govern atomic interactions in materials. However, most existing IAPs are developed for bulk materials and often struggle to…