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The El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most important driver of interannual global climate variability and can trigger extreme weather events and disasters in various parts of the globe. Depending on the region of maximal warming,…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2022-12-29 J. Ludescher , A. Bunde , H. J. Schellnhuber

The El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant driver of interannual global climate variability and can lead to extreme weather events such as droughts or flooding. Recently, we have developed several statistical approaches for…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-02-17 Josef Ludescher , Jun Meng , Jingfang Fan , Armin Bunde , Hans Joachim Schellnhuber

The El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a mode of interannual variability in the coupled equatorial Pacific coupled atmosphere/ocean system. El Ni\~no describes a state in which sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific increase…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2017-10-10 John Guckenheimer , Axel Timmermann , Henk Dijkstra , Andrew Roberts

The Earth's climate system is a classical example of a multiscale, multiphysics dynamical system with an extremely large number of active degrees of freedom, exhibiting variability on scales ranging from micrometers and seconds in cloud…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2022-01-19 Gary Froyland , Dimitrios Giannakis , Benjamin Lintner , Maxwell Pike , Joanna Slawinska

El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most predominant interannual variability in the tropics, significantly impacting global weather and climate. In this paper, a framework of low-order conceptual models for the ENSO is…

Geophysics · Physics 2023-08-09 Nan Chen , Yinling Zhang

We study the three-timescale dynamics of a model that describes the El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, which was proposed in [A. Roberts, J. Guckenheimer, E. Widiasih, A. Timmermann, and C. K. Jones, Mixed-mode oscillations…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2022-07-08 Panagiotis Kaklamanos , Nikola Popović

The MaddenJulian oscillation (MJO) is the dominant mode of intraseasonal variability in the tropics. Despite its primary importance, a generally accepted theory that accounts for fundamental features of the MJO, including its propagation…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2015-06-11 Da Yang , Andrew P. Ingersoll

The intraseasonal Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) involves a slow eastward-propagating signal in the tropical atmosphere which significantly influences climate yet is not well understood despite significant theoretical and observational…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2010-02-12 Aviv Solodoch , William Boos , Zhiming Kuang , Eli Tziperman

Despite advances in climate modeling, simulating the El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains challenging due to its spatiotemporal diversity and complexity. To address this, we build upon existing model hierarchies to develop a new…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-03-27 Jinyu Wang , Xianghui Fang , Nan Chen , Bo Qin , Mu Mu , Chaopeng Ji

The El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a mode of interannual variability in the coupled equatorial ocean/atmosphere Pacific. El Ni\~no describes a state in which sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific increase and upwelling…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2016-07-12 John Guckenheimer , Andrew Roberts , Axel Timmermann , Henk Dijkstra

We discuss a simple three layer model of the tropical atmosphere. The rainfall variance of the model is dominated by a rainfall mode moving parallel to the equator having the approximate size and propagation speed of the Madden-Julian…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-12-23 Ian Folkins

We consider a delay differential equation (DDE) model for El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability. The model combines two key mechanisms that participate in ENSO dynamics: delayed negative feedback and seasonal forcing. We perform…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2020-01-29 Michael Ghil , Ilya Zaliapin , Sylvester Thompson

The impact of the El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the extratropics is investigated in an idealized, reduced-order model that has a tropical and an extratropical module. Unidirectional ENSO forcing is used to mimick the atmospheric…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2021-07-07 Stéphane Vannitsem , Jonathan Demaeyer , Michael Ghil

The El Ni\~no phenomenon, synonymously El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), is an anomalous climatic oscillation in the Equatorial Pacific that occurs once every 3-8 years. It affects the earth's climate on a global scale. Whether it is a…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2007-05-23 Debabrata Panja , Gerrit Burgers

The Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is modelled with the help of a simple model representing a classical damped oscillator forced by external forcing. Eastern Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) and the mean equatorial Pacific thermocline…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2007-05-23 Vladimir N. Stepanov

We consider a highly idealized model for El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability, as introduced in an earlier paper. The model is governed by a delay differential equation for sea surface temperature in the Tropical Pacific, and it…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2011-01-13 Ilya Zaliapin , Michael Ghil

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is an important driver of global weather and climate extremes, but its prediction in operational dynamical models remains challenging, with skillful forecasts typically limited to 3-4 weeks. Here, we…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-28 Xiao Zhou , Yuze Sun , Jie Wu , Xiaomeng Huang

A non-autonomous stochastic dynamical model approach is developed to describe the seasonal to interannual variability of the El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). We determine the model coefficients by systematic statistical estimations…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2020-12-21 L. T. Giorgini , W. Moon , N. Chen , J. S. Wettlaufer

El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a prominent mode of interannual climate variability with far-reaching global impacts. Its evolution is governed by intricate air-sea interactions, posing significant challenges for long-term…

The El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the strongest driver of interannual global climate variability and can lead to extreme weather events like droughts and flooding. Additionally, ENSO influences the mean global temperature with…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-02-04 J. Ludescher , J. Meng , J. Fan , A. Bunde , H. J. Schellnhuber