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The vast majority of compact binary mergers in the Universe produce gravitational waves that are too weak to yield unambiguous detections; they are unresolved. We present a method to infer the population properties of compact binaries --…

High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena · Physics 2020-06-17 Rory Smith , Colm Talbot , Francisco Hernandez Vivanco , Eric Thrane

We propose parameterizing the population distribution of the gravitational wave population modeling framework (Hierarchical Bayesian Analysis) with a normalizing flow. We first demonstrate the merit of this method on illustrative…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2023-01-02 David Ruhe , Kaze Wong , Miles Cranmer , Patrick Forré

As gravitational-wave catalogs grow, they will become increasingly computationally expensive to analyze in their entirety, especially when inferring astrophysical source populations with high-dimensional, flexible models. Bayesian…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2026-02-25 Noah E. Wolfe , Matthew Mould , John Veitch , Salvatore Vitale

The population of the observed gravitational wave events encodes unique information on the formation and evolution of stellar-mass black holes, from the underlying astrophysical processes to the large-scale dynamics of the Universe. We use…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2025-03-03 Vasco Gennari , Simone Mastrogiovanni , Nicola Tamanini , Sylvain Marsat , Grégoire Pierra

As we enter the era of gravitational wave astronomy, we are beginning to collect observations which will enable us to explore aspects of astrophysics of massive stellar binaries which were previously beyond reach. In this paper we describe…

High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena · Physics 2017-06-14 Jim W. Barrett , Ilya Mandel , Coenraad J. Neijssel , Simon Stevenson , Alejandro Vigna-Gomez

With several dozen binary black hole events detected by LIGO/Virgo to date and many more expected in the next few years, gravitational-wave astronomy is shifting from individual-event analyses to population studies. Using the GWTC-2…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2022-05-11 Gabriele Franciolini , Vishal Baibhav , Valerio De Luca , Ken K. Y. Ng , Kaze W. K. Wong , Emanuele Berti , Paolo Pani , Antonio Riotto , Salvatore Vitale

We describe a Bayesian formalism for analyzing individual gravitational-wave events in light of the rest of an observed population. This analysis reveals how the idea of a "population-informed prior" arises naturally from a suitable…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2021-11-11 Christopher J. Moore , Davide Gerosa

The Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) is expected to detect thousands of individually resolved gravitational wave sources, overlapping in time and frequency, on top of unresolved astrophysical and/or primordial backgrounds.…

Astrophysics of Galaxies · Physics 2026-01-09 Rahul Srinivasan , Enrico Barausse , Natalia Korsakova , Roberto Trotta

Knowledge of the shape of the mass spectrum of compact objects can be used to help break the degeneracy between the mass and redshift of the gravitational wave (GW) sources, and thus can be used to infer cosmological parameters in the…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2021-09-29 S. Mastrogiovanni , K. Leyde , C. Karathanasis , E. Chassande-Mottin , D. A. Steer , J. Gair , A. Ghosh , R. Gray , S. Mukherjee , S. Rinaldi

The growing number of gravitational-wave (GW) observations allows for constraints to be placed on the underlying population of black holes; current estimates show that black hole spins are small, with binaries more likely to have comparable…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2026-01-28 Charlie Hoy

Current analysis of astronomical data are confronted with the daunting task of modeling the awkward features of astronomical data, among which heteroscedastic (point-dependent) errors, intrinsic scatter, non-ignorable data collection…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2011-12-19 S. Andreon

Galactic binaries are expected to be the most numerous LISA sources and to produce a stochastic gravitational-wave foreground whose spectral shape encodes information about the underlying population. Extracting this information with…

High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena · Physics 2026-05-12 Federico De Santi , Alessandro Santini , Alexandre Toubiana , Nikolaos Karnesis , Davide Gerosa

Many astronomical surveys prompt follow-up observations, but the decision process through which candidates are selected for follow-up can be difficult to model. This poses a challenge when inferring properties of the intrinsic population of…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2026-05-08 Reed Essick , Amanda M. Farah

We present a novel machine-learning approach to estimate selection effects in gravitational-wave observations. Using techniques similar to those commonly employed in image classification and pattern recognition, we train a series of…

High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena · Physics 2020-11-18 Davide Gerosa , Geraint Pratten , Alberto Vecchio

Reconstructing the properties of the astrophysical population of binary compact objects in the universe is a key science goal of gravitational wave detectors. This goal is hindered by the finite strain, frequency sensitivity and observing…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2025-03-21 Jam Sadiq , Kallol Dey , Thomas Dent , Enrico Barausse

We apply neural posterior estimation for fast-and-accurate hierarchical Bayesian inference of gravitational wave populations. We use a normalizing flow to estimate directly the population hyper-parameters from a collection of individual…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2024-04-09 Konstantin Leyde , Stephen R. Green , Alexandre Toubiana , Jonathan Gair

The observed distributions of the source properties from gravitational-wave detections are biased due to the selection effects and detection criteria in the detections, analogous to the Malmquist bias. In this work, this observation bias is…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2021-12-15 Doğa Veske , Imre Bartos , Zsuzsa Márka , Szabolcs Márka

Gravitational waves provide a powerful probe of both the astrophysical processes driving black hole mergers and the dynamics of the Universe, but these measurements rely on accurately inferring the unknown underlying population. We perform…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2026-04-17 Vasco Gennari , Tom Bertheas , Nicola Tamanini

We analyze the distinguishability of populations of coalescing binary neutron stars, neutron-star black-hole binaries, and binary black holes, whose gravitational-wave signatures are expected to be observed by the advanced network of…

High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena · Physics 2015-05-05 Ilya Mandel , Carl-Johan Haster , Michal Dominik , Krzysztof Belczynski

The formation and evolution of binary stars is a critical component of several fields in astronomy. The most numerous sources for gravitational wave observatories are inspiraling and/or merging compact binaries, while binary stars are…