Related papers: Comment on 'Asset Bubbles and Overlapping Generati…
Since McCallum (1987), it is well known that in an overlapping generations (OLG) economy with land, the equilibrium is Pareto efficient because with balanced growth, the interest rate exceeds the economic growth rate ($R>G$), which rules…
We define a financial bubble as a period of unsustainable growth, when the price of an asset increases ever more quickly, in a series of accelerating phases of corrections and rebounds. More technically, during a bubble phase, the price…
We consider a simple stochastic differential equation for modeling bubbles in social context. A prime example is bubbles in asset pricing, but similar mechanisms may control a range of social phenomena driven by psychological factors (for…
Our analysis of financial data, in terms of super-exponential growth, suggests that the seed of the 2002/03 crisis of the Dutch supermarket giant AHOLD was planted in 1996. It became quite visible in 1999 when the post-bubble…
We re-visit the classical problem of optimal payment of dividends and determine the degree to which the diffusion approximation serves as a valid approximation of the classical risk model for this problem. Our results parallel some of those…
We present a heuristic argument for the propensity of Topological Data Analysis (TDA) to detect early warning signals of critical transitions in financial time series. Our argument is based on the Log-Periodic Power Law Singularity (LPPLS)…
This paper develops a dynamic equilibrium model where agents exhibit a strong form of belief heterogeneity: they disagree about zero probability events. It is shown that, somewhat surprisingly, equilibrium exists in this setting, and that…
This paper addresses the statistical properties of time series driven by rational bubbles a la Blanchard and Watson (1982), corresponding to multiplicative maps, whose study has recently be revived recently in physics as a mechanism of…
We study the concept of financial bubble in a market model endowed with a set of probability measures, typically mutually singular to each other. In this setting we introduce the notions of robust bubble and robust fundamental value in a…
Measures of wealth and production have been found to scale superlinearly with the population of a city. Therefore, it makes economic sense for humans to congregate together in dense settlements. A recent model of population dynamics showed…
We propose a reduced form set of two coupled continuous time equations linking the price of a representative asset and the price of a bond, the later quantifying the cost of borrowing. The feedbacks between asset prices and bonds are…
A simple but useful method of reciprocal values is introduced, explained and illustrated. This method simplifies the analysis of hyperbolic distributions, which are causing serious problems in the demographic and economic research. It…
We consider a population distributed between two habitats, in each of which it experiences a growth rate that switches periodically between two values, $1- \varepsilon > 0$ or $ - (1 + \varepsilon) < 0$. We study the specific case where the…
Eternal inflation is a seemingly generic consequence of theories that give rise to accelerated expansion of the universe and possess multiple vacuum states. Making predictions in an eternally inflating universe is notoriously difficult…
We argue that the present crisis and stalling economy continuing since 2007 are rooted in the delusionary belief in policies based on a "perpetual money machine" type of thinking. We document strong evidence that, since the early 1980s,…
We present a stylized model with feedback loops for the evolution of a population's wealth over generations. Individuals have both talent and wealth: talent is a random variable distributed identically for everyone, but wealth is a random…
"Rational bubble", as introduced by the famous paper on money by Samuelson (1958), means speculation backed by nothing. The large subsequent rational bubble literature has identified attaching bubbles to dividend-paying assets in a natural…
This paper studies the income fluctuation problem with capital income risk (i.e., dispersion in the rate of return to wealth). Wealth returns and labor earnings are allowed to be serially correlated and mutually dependent. Rewards can be…
We investigate the parameter space of hybrid inflation models where inflation terminates via a first-order phase transition causing nucleation of bubbles. Such models experience a tension from the need to ensure nearly scale invariant…
We consider a continuous time stochastic individual based model for a population structured only by an inherited vector trait and with logistic interactions. We consider its limit in a context from adaptive dynamics: the population is…