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For treatment effects - one of the core issues in modern econometric analysis - prediction and estimation are two sides of the same coin. As it turns out, machine learning methods are the tool for generalized prediction models. Combined…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-04-27 Daniel Jacob

Aligning large language models (LLMs) with human preferences is inherently multi-objective: different users and evaluation criteria impose heterogeneous and often conflicting requirements on model outputs. We propose CAGE (Common-Agency…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2026-05-15 Baiting Chen , Tong Zhu , Rui Yu , Xiaowu Dai

Estimating the Conditional Average Treatment Effect (CATE) is often constrained by the high cost of obtaining outcome measurements, making active learning essential. However, conventional active learning strategies suffer from a fundamental…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-09-29 Erdun Gao , Jake Fawkes , Dino Sejdinovic

We address the problem of estimating heterogeneous treatment effects in panel data, adopting the popular Difference-in-Differences (DiD) framework under the conditional parallel trends assumption. We propose a novel doubly robust…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-04-29 Hui Lan , Haoge Chang , Eleanor Dillon , Vasilis Syrgkanis

Across a wide array of disciplines, many researchers use machine learning (ML) algorithms to identify a subgroup of individuals who are likely to benefit from a treatment the most (``exceptional responders'') or those who are harmed by it.…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-03 Michael Lingzhi Li , Kosuke Imai

Gaze estimation methods encounter significant performance deterioration when being evaluated across different domains, because of the domain gap between the testing and training data. Existing methods try to solve this issue by reducing the…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-12-23 Guanzhong Zeng , Jingjing Wang , Zefu Xu , Pengwei Yin , Wenqi Ren , Di Xie , Jiang Zhu

Researchers are increasingly turning to machine learning (ML) algorithms to investigate causal heterogeneity in randomized experiments. Despite their promise, ML algorithms may fail to accurately ascertain heterogeneous treatment effects…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-23 Kosuke Imai , Michael Lingzhi Li

We propose a framework that aligns Conditional Average Treatment Effect (CATE) estimation with profit maximization. Our method recognizes that, for customers with extreme treatment effects, additional estimation accuracy is unlikely to…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-04-21 Artem Timoshenko , Caio Waisman

Complementary Labels Learning (CLL) arises in many real-world tasks such as private questions classification and online learning, which aims to alleviate the annotation cost compared with standard supervised learning. Unfortunately, most…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-22 Zhongnian Li , Jian Zhang , Mengting Xu , Xinzheng Xu , Daoqiang Zhang

The conditional tail average treatment effect (CTATE) is defined as a difference between the conditional tail expectations of potential outcomes, which can capture heterogeneity and deliver aggregated local information on treatment effects…

Applications · Statistics 2024-05-21 Le-Yu Chen , Yu-Min Yen

Despite recent advancements in deep learning, deep neural networks continue to suffer from performance degradation when applied to new data that differs from training data. Test-time adaptation (TTA) aims to address this challenge by…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-09-06 Sanghun Jung , Jungsoo Lee , Nanhee Kim , Amirreza Shaban , Byron Boots , Jaegul Choo

Statisticians show growing interest in estimating and analyzing heterogeneity in causal effects in observational studies. However, there usually exists a trade-off between accuracy and interpretability for developing a desirable estimator…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-26 Steven Siwei Ye , Yanzhen Chen , Oscar Hernan Madrid Padilla

Unsupervised graph representation learning is critical to a wide range of applications where labels may be scarce or expensive to procure. Contrastive learning (CL) is an increasingly popular paradigm for such settings and the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-15 Puja Trivedi , Ekdeep Singh Lubana , Yujun Yan , Yaoqing Yang , Danai Koutra

Heterogeneous treatment effects (HTEs) are increasingly estimated using machine learning models that produce highly personalized predictions of treatment effects. In practice, however, predicted treatment effects are rarely interpreted,…

Many practical decision-making problems in economics and healthcare seek to estimate the average treatment effect (ATE) from observational data. The Double/Debiased Machine Learning (DML) is one of the prevalent methods to estimate ATE in…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-12-07 Yiyan Huang , Cheuk Hang Leung , Xing Yan , Qi Wu , Shumin Ma , Zhiri Yuan , Dongdong Wang , Zhixiang Huang

We introduce an algorithm for identifying interpretable subgroups with elevated treatment effects, given an estimate of individual or conditional average treatment effects (CATE). Subgroups are characterized by ``rule sets'' --…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-07-15 Albert Chiu

There is growing interest in estimating and analyzing heterogeneous treatment effects in experimental and observational studies. We describe a number of meta-algorithms that can take advantage of any supervised learning or regression method…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-06-18 Sören R. Künzel , Jasjeet S. Sekhon , Peter J. Bickel , Bin Yu

Evidence syntheses and meta-analyses are used to inform clinical practice guidelines and health economic evaluations. However, heterogeneity of treatment effects poses a significant challenge. Conventional meta-analysis addresses…

This paper provides estimation and inference methods for a conditional average treatment effects (CATE) characterized by a high-dimensional parameter in both homogeneous cross-sectional and unit-heterogeneous dynamic panel data settings. In…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-12-13 Vira Semenova , Matt Goldman , Victor Chernozhukov , Matt Taddy

The conditional average treatment effect (CATE) is the best measure of individual causal effects given baseline covariates. However, the CATE only captures the (conditional) average, and can overlook risks and tail events, which are…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-05 Nathan Kallus , Miruna Oprescu