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When implementing prediction models for high-stakes real-world applications such as medicine, finance, and autonomous systems, quantifying prediction uncertainty is critical for effective risk management. Traditional approaches to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-04-29 Junting Ren , Armin Schwartzman

Capturing aleatoric uncertainty is a critical part of many machine learning systems. In deep learning, a common approach to this end is to train a neural network to estimate the parameters of a heteroscedastic Gaussian distribution by…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-04-04 Maximilian Seitzer , Arash Tavakoli , Dimitrije Antic , Georg Martius

Machine learning enables systems to build and update domain models based on runtime observations. In this paper, we study statistical model checking and runtime verification for systems with this ability. Two challenges arise: (1) Models…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2017-03-01 Lenz Belzner , Thomas Gabor

Precise vehicle state estimation is crucial for safe and reliable autonomous driving. The number of measurable states and their precision offered by the onboard vehicle sensor system are often constrained by cost. For instance, measuring…

Identifying uncertainty and taking mitigating actions is crucial for safe and trustworthy reinforcement learning agents, especially when deployed in high-risk environments. In this paper, risk sensitivity is promoted in a model-based…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-10 Stefan Radic Webster , Peter Flach

This paper introduces a comprehensive, multi-stage machine learning methodology that effectively integrates information systems and artificial intelligence to enhance decision-making processes within the domain of operations research. The…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-14 Nijat Mehdiyev , Maxim Majlatow , Peter Fettke

We consider active learning (AL) in an uncertain environment in which trade-off between multiple risk measures need to be considered. As an AL problem in such an uncertain environment, we study Mean-Variance Analysis in Bayesian…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-09-18 Shogo Iwazaki , Yu Inatsu , Ichiro Takeuchi

This paper introduces a novel approach to quantify the uncertainties in fault diagnosis of motor drives using Bayesian neural networks (BNN). Conventional data-driven approaches used for fault diagnosis often rely on point-estimate neural…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-12-16 Subham Sahoo , Huai Wang , Frede Blaabjerg

When simulating a complex stochastic system, the behavior of output response depends on input parameters estimated from finite real-world data, and the finiteness of data brings input uncertainty into the system. The quantification of the…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2017-12-20 Helin Zhu , Tianyi Liu , Enlu Zhou

When autonomous vehicles encounter untrained scenarios, ensuring safety hinges on effective safety verification to prevent accidents stemming from unexpected model decisions. Reachability analysis, a method of safety verification, offers…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-12-05 Lingxiang Fan , Linxuan He , Haoyuan Ji , Shuo Feng

Safe autonomous navigation is an essential and challenging problem for robots operating in highly unstructured or completely unknown environments. Under these conditions, not only robotic systems must deal with limited localisation…

Robotics · Computer Science 2020-05-27 Èric Pairet , Juan David Hernández , Marc Carreras , Yvan Petillot , Morteza Lahijanian

The usual figure of merit characterizing the performance of neural networks applied to problems in the quantum domain is their accuracy, being the probability of a correct answer on a previously unseen input. Here we append this parameter…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2022-12-29 Jan Wasilewski , Tomasz Paterek , Karol Horodecki

Deep Reinforcement Learning is quickly becoming a popular method for training autonomous Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs). Our work analyzes the effects of measurement uncertainty on the performance of Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) based…

Robotics · Computer Science 2023-03-14 Bhaskar Joshi , Dhruv Kapur , Harikumar Kandath

The rapid evolution of automated vehicles (AVs) has the potential to provide safer, more efficient, and comfortable travel options. However, these systems face challenges regarding reliability in complex driving scenarios. Recent…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-02-27 Shihong Ling , Yue Wan , Xiaowei Jia , Na Du

When deploying machine learning algorithms in the real world, guaranteeing safety is an essential asset. Existing safe learning approaches typically consider continuous variables, i.e., regression tasks. However, in practice, robotic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-12 Dominik Baumann , Thomas B. Schön

Uncertainty estimation bears the potential to make deep learning (DL) systems more reliable. Standard techniques for uncertainty estimation, however, come along with specific combinations of strengths and weaknesses, e.g., with respect to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-02 Joachim Sicking , Maram Akila , Jan David Schneider , Fabian Hüger , Peter Schlicht , Tim Wirtz , Stefan Wrobel

Deep neural networks has been increasingly applied in fault diagnostics, where it uses historical data to capture systems behavior, bypassing the need for high-fidelity physical models. However, despite their competence in prediction tasks,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-24 Arman Mohammadi , Mattias Krysander , Daniel Jung , Erik Frisk

Virtual Diagnostic (VD) is a computational tool based on deep learning that can be used to predict a diagnostic output. VDs are especially useful in systems where measuring the output is invasive, limited, costly or runs the risk of…

Accelerator Physics · Physics 2021-08-04 Owen Convery , Lewis Smith , Yarin Gal , Adi Hanuka

In model-free deep reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms, using noisy value estimates to supervise policy evaluation and optimization is detrimental to the sample efficiency. As this noise is heteroscedastic, its effects can be mitigated…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-04 Vincent Mai , Kaustubh Mani , Liam Paull

The accessibility of spatially distributed data, enabled by affordable sensors, field, and numerical experiments, has facilitated the development of data-driven solutions for scientific problems, including climate change, weather…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-09 Vardhan Dongre , Gurpreet Singh Hora
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