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Uncertainty quantification has received considerable interest in recent works in Machine Learning. In particular, Conformal Prediction (CP) gains ground in this field. For the case of time series, Online Conformal Prediction (OCP) becomes…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-03 Théo Dupuy , Binbin Xu , Stéphane Perrey , Jacky Montmain , Abdelhak Imoussaten

Uncertainty quantification for estimation through stochastic optimization solutions in an online setting has gained popularity recently. This paper introduces a novel inference method focused on constructing confidence intervals with…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-24 Wanrong Zhu , Zhipeng Lou , Ziyang Wei , Wei Biao Wu

Conformal prediction is a popular method to construct prediction intervals with marginal coverage guarantees from black-box machine learning models. In applications with potentially high-impact events, such as flooding or financial crises,…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-02 Olivier C. Pasche , Henry Lam , Sebastian Engelke

This paper considers online optimization for a system that performs a sequence of back-to-back tasks. Each task can be processed in one of multiple processing modes that affect the duration of the task, the reward earned, and an additional…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-01-17 Michael J. Neely

We develop methods for forming prediction sets in an online setting where the data generating distribution is allowed to vary over time in an unknown fashion. Our framework builds on ideas from conformal inference to provide a general…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-10 Isaac Gibbs , Emmanuel Candès

Online conformal prediction has demonstrated its capability to construct a prediction set for each incoming data point that covers the true label with a predetermined probability. To cope with potential distribution shift, multi-model…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-14 Erfan Hajihashemi , Yanning Shen

Conformal prediction is a theoretically grounded framework for constructing predictive intervals. We study conformal prediction with missing values in the covariates -- a setting that brings new challenges to uncertainty quantification. We…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-06-06 Margaux Zaffran , Aymeric Dieuleveut , Julie Josse , Yaniv Romano

Conformal Prediction methods have finite-sample distribution-free marginal coverage guarantees. However, they generally do not offer conditional coverage guarantees, which can be important for high-stakes decisions. In this paper, we…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-09-27 Ruijiang Gao , Mingzhang Yin , James McInerney , Nathan Kallus

We define an online learning and optimization problem with discrete and irreversible decisions contributing toward a coverage target. In each period, a decision-maker selects facilities to open, receives information on the success of each…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-06 Alexandre Jacquillat , Michael Lingzhi Li

We revisit the online dynamic acknowledgment problem. In the problem, a sequence of requests arrive over time to be acknowledged, and all outstanding requests can be satisfied simultaneously by one acknowledgement. The goal of the problem…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2023-05-30 Sungjin Im , Benjamin Moseley , Chenyang Xu , Ruilong Zhang

We consider the problem of constructing distribution-free prediction sets with finite-sample conditional guarantees. Prior work has shown that it is impossible to provide exact conditional coverage universally in finite samples. Thus, most…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-18 Isaac Gibbs , John J. Cherian , Emmanuel J. Candès

Conformal prediction has emerged as a cutting-edge methodology in statistics and machine learning, providing prediction intervals with finite-sample frequentist coverage guarantees. Yet, its interplay with Bayesian statistics, often…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-27 Nina Deliu , Brunero Liseo

We study the online maximum coverage problem on a line, in which, given an online sequence of sub-intervals (which may intersect among each other) of a target large interval and an integer $k$, we aim to select at most $k$ of the…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2020-11-24 Songhua Li , Minming Li , Lingjie Duan , Victor C. S. Lee

We study the problem of post-selection predictive inference in an online fashion. To avoid devoting resources to unimportant units, a preliminary selection of the current individual before reporting its prediction interval is common and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-02 Yajie Bao , Yuyang Huo , Haojie Ren , Changliang Zou

Conformal prediction (CP) provides a comprehensive framework to produce statistically rigorous uncertainty sets for black-box machine learning models. To further improve the efficiency of CP, conformal correction is proposed to fine-tune or…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-03 Senrong Xu , Tianyu Wang , Zenan Li , Yuan Yao , Taolue Chen , Feng Xu , Xiaoxing Ma

We present a new distribution-free conformal prediction algorithm for sequential data (e.g., time series), called the \textit{sequential predictive conformal inference} (\texttt{SPCI}). We specifically account for the nature that time…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-05-31 Chen Xu , Yao Xie

Conformal prediction is a distribution-free uncertainty quantification method that has gained popularity in the machine learning community due to its finite-sample guarantees and ease of use. Its most common variant, dubbed split conformal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-27 Alvaro H. C. Correia , Christos Louizos

One of the main strengths of online algorithms is their ability to adapt to arbitrary data sequences. This is especially important in nonparametric settings, where performance is measured against rich classes of comparator functions that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-11-03 Ilja Kuzborskij , Nicolò Cesa-Bianchi

Conformal prediction is an emerging technique for uncertainty quantification that constructs prediction sets guaranteed to contain the true label with a predefined probability. Recent work develops online conformal prediction methods that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-17 Huajun Xi , Kangdao Liu , Hao Zeng , Wenguang Sun , Hongxin Wei

Reinforcement Learning aims at identifying and evaluating efficient control policies from data. In many real-world applications, the learner is not allowed to experiment and cannot gather data in an online manner (this is the case when…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-02 Daniele Foffano , Alessio Russo , Alexandre Proutiere