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Standard conformal prediction offers a marginal guarantee on coverage, but for prediction sets to be truly useful, they should ideally ensure coverage conditional on each test point. Unfortunately, it is impossible to achieve exact,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-11 Jivat Neet Kaur , Michael I. Jordan , Ahmed Alaa

Conformal prediction is a powerful post-hoc framework for uncertainty quantification that provides distribution-free coverage guarantees. However, these guarantees crucially rely on the assumption of exchangeability. This assumption is…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-18 M. Stocker , W. Małgorzewicz , M. Fontana , S. Ben Taieb

Conformal prediction constructs a confidence set for an unobserved response of a feature vector based on previous identically distributed and exchangeable observations of responses and features. It has a coverage guarantee at any nominal…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-12-08 Eugene Ndiaye , Ichiro Takeuchi

The study of online algorithms with machine-learned predictions has gained considerable prominence in recent years. One of the common objectives in the design and analysis of such algorithms is to attain (Pareto) optimal tradeoffs between…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-09 Spyros Angelopoulos , Christoph Dürr , Alex Elenter , Yanni Lefki

Modern artificial intelligence systems require calibrated uncertainty estimates that remain reliable in sequential and non-stationary environments. Online conformal prediction (OCP) addresses this challenge through adaptively updated…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-21 Bowen Wang , Matteo Zecchin , Osvaldo Simeone

In the problem of online unweighted interval selection, the objective is to maximize the number of non-conflicting intervals accepted by the algorithm. In the conventional online model of irrevocable decisions, there is an Omega(n) lower…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2025-06-03 Allan Borodin , Christodoulos Karavasilis

Conformal prediction has emerged as an effective strategy for uncertainty quantification by modifying a model to output sets of labels instead of a single label. These prediction sets come with the guarantee that they contain the true label…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-28 Haosen Ge , Hamsa Bastani , Osbert Bastani

Conformal prediction is a framework that provides valid uncertainty quantification for general models with exchangeable data. However, in the online learning and time-series settings, exchangeability is not satisfied. Existing online…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-11 Yuheng Lai , Garvesh Raskutti

This paper studies an online replication problem for distributed data access. The goal is to dynamically create and delete data copies in a multi-server system as time passes to minimize the total storage and network cost of serving access…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2024-04-26 Tianyu Zuo , Xueyan Tang , Bu Sung Lee

The interval scheduling problem is one variant of the scheduling problem. In this paper, we propose a novel variant of the interval scheduling problem, whose definition is as follows: given jobs are specified by their {\em release times},…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2018-05-16 Koji M. Kobayashi

Quantifying the data uncertainty in learning tasks is often done by learning a prediction interval or prediction set of the label given the input. Two commonly desired properties for learned prediction sets are \emph{valid coverage} and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-31 Yu Bai , Song Mei , Huan Wang , Yingbo Zhou , Caiming Xiong

Based on the framework of Conformal Prediction (CP), we study the online construction of confidence sets given a black-box machine learning model. By converting the target confidence levels into quantile levels, the problem can be reduced…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-23 Zhiyu Zhang , Zhou Lu , Heng Yang

This paper leverages machine-learned predictions to design competitive algorithms for online conversion problems with the goal of improving the competitive ratio when predictions are accurate (i.e., consistency), while also guaranteeing a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-09-06 Bo Sun , Russell Lee , Mohammad Hajiesmaili , Adam Wierman , Danny H. K. Tsang

We investigate deterministic non-preemptive online scheduling with delayed commitment for total completion time minimization on parallel identical machines. In this problem, jobs arrive one-by-one and their processing times are revealed…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2022-07-19 Uwe Schwiegelshohn

Conformal prediction is a framework for providing prediction intervals with distribution-free validity, guaranteeing predictive coverage for data drawn from any distribution. Its two main variants are full conformal prediction and split…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-29 Aabesh Bhattacharyya , Boxuan Zhang , Rina Foygel Barber

Conformal prediction provides prediction sets with coverage guarantees. The informativeness of conformal prediction depends on its efficiency, typically quantified by the expected size of the prediction set. Prior work on the efficiency of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-06 Yunzhen Yao , Lie He , Michael Gastpar

Accurate uncertainty estimates are important in sequential model-based decision-making tasks such as Bayesian optimization. However, these estimates can be imperfect if the data violates assumptions made by the model (e.g., Gaussianity).…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-27 Shachi Deshpande , Charles Marx , Volodymyr Kuleshov

Web crawling is the problem of keeping a cache of webpages fresh, i.e., having the most recent copy available when a page is requested. This problem is usually coupled with the natural restriction that the bandwidth available to the web…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-11-26 Utkarsh Upadhyay , Robert Busa-Fekete , Wojciech Kotlowski , David Pal , Balazs Szorenyi

Reliable uncertainty quantification is of critical importance in time series forecasting, yet traditional methods often rely on restrictive distributional assumptions. Conformal prediction (CP) has emerged as a promising distribution-free…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-02 Andro Sabashvili

Online conformal prediction enables the runtime calibration of a pre-trained artificial intelligence model using feedback on its performance. Calibration is achieved through set predictions that are updated via online rules so as to ensure…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-08 Bowen Wang , Matteo Zecchin , Osvaldo Simeone