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We propose a novel approach for inferring the individualized causal effects of a treatment (intervention) from observational data. Our approach conceptualizes causal inference as a multitask learning problem; we model a subject's potential…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-06-20 Ahmed M. Alaa , Michael Weisz , Mihaela van der Schaar

Factorial experiments are ubiquitous in the social and biomedical sciences, but when units fail to comply with each assigned factors, identification and estimation of the average treatment effects become impossible without strong…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-06 Matthew Blackwell , Nicole E. Pashley

The estimands framework outlined in ICH E9 (R1) describes the components needed to precisely define the effects to be estimated in clinical trials, which includes how post-baseline "intercurrent" events (IEs) are to be handled. In…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-08-28 Thomas Drury , Juan J Abellan , Nicky Best , Ian R. White

This tutorial provides a concise introduction to modern causal modeling by integrating potential outcomes and graphical methods. We motivate causal questions such as counterfactual reasoning under interventions and define binary treatments…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-27 Gauranga Kumar Baishya

We propose novel estimators for categorical and continuous treatments by using an optimal covariate balancing strategy for inverse probability weighting. The resulting estimators are shown to be consistent and asymptotically normal for…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-08 Seong-ho Lee , Yanyuan Ma , Xavier de Luna

Causal mediation analysis aims at disentangling a treatment effect into an indirect mechanism operating through an intermediate outcome or mediator, as well as the direct effect of the treatment on the outcome of interest. However, the…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-05-05 Martin Huber , Lukáš Lafférs

Functional data analysis, which handles data arising from curves, surfaces, volumes, manifolds and beyond in a variety of scientific fields, is a rapidly developing area in modern statistics and data science in the recent decades. The…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-08-21 Xiaoke Zhang , Wu Xue , Qiyue Wang

The ability to generalize experimental results from randomized control trials (RCTs) across locations is crucial for informing policy decisions in targeted regions. Such generalization is often hindered by the lack of identifiability due to…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-12-10 Xinkun Nie , Guido Imbens , Stefan Wager

A growing number of researchers are conducting randomized experiments to analyze causal relationships in network settings where units influence one another. A dominant methodology for analyzing these experiments is design-based, leveraging…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-30 Ambarish Chattopadhyay , Kosuke Imai , Jose R. Zubizarreta

For the purpose of causal inference we employ a stochastic model of the data generating process, utilizing individual propensity probabilities for the treatment, and also individual and counterfactual prognosis probabilities for the…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-15 Brian Knaeble , Mehdi Hakim-Hashemi , Mark A. Abramson

We propose a novel regression adjustment method designed for estimating distributional treatment effect parameters in randomized experiments. Randomized experiments have been extensively used to estimate treatment effects in various…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-07-24 Undral Byambadalai , Tatsushi Oka , Shota Yasui

Traditional methods for covariate adjustment of treatment means in designed experiments are inherently conditional on the observed covariate values. In order to develop a coherent general methodology for analysis of covariance, we propose a…

Methodology · Statistics 2010-01-19 James G. Booth , Walter T. Federer , Martin T. Wells , Russell D. Wolfinger

We consider causal inference in dynamic settings where treatment is assigned by thresholding a state variable that can change over time. There is a large literature on regression-discontinuity methods building on the fact that, in the…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-25 Aditya Ghosh , Stefan Wager

With multiple outcomes in empirical research, a common strategy is to define a composite outcome as a weighted average of the original outcomes. However, the choices of weights are often subjective and can be controversial. We propose an…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-17 Wei Zhang , Qizhai Li , Peng Ding

Many proposals for the identification of causal effects require an instrumental variable that satisfies strong, untestable unconfoundedness and exclusion restriction assumptions. In this paper, we show how one can potentially identify…

Causal inference, estimating causal effects from observational data, is a fundamental tool in many disciplines. Of particular importance across a variety of domains is the continuous treatment setting, where the variable of intervention has…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-15 Christopher Stith , Medha Barath , Vahid Balazadeh , Jesse C. Cresswell , Rahul G. Krishnan

Estimating treatment effects conditional on observed covariates can improve the ability to tailor treatments to particular individuals. Doing so effectively requires dealing with potential confounding, and also enough data to adequately…

Assessing the causal effects of interventions on ordinal outcomes is an important objective of many educational and behavioral studies. Under the potential outcomes framework, we can define causal effects as comparisons between the…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-04-06 Jiannan Lu , Peng Ding , Tirthankar Dasgupta

Inferring the causal effects of time-varying treatments is often hindered by highly variable inverse propensity weights, particularly in settings with limited covariate overlap. Building on the key framework of Imai and Ratkovic (2015), we…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-06 Yige Li , María de los Angeles Resa , José R. Zubizarreta

Boundary Discontinuity (BD) designs are used in empirical research to learn about causal treatment effects along a continuous assignment boundary defined by a bivariate score. These designs are also known as multi-score regression…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-29 Matias D. Cattaneo , Rocio Titiunik , Ruiqi Rae Yu